Hurricanes and Florida

[Guest]

Gary Gray,TWW's site Independent Weather,Hurricane city's Jim Williams & 1 more that I cant think of at this time all seem to agree that the Fla. peninsula specifically the EC is at little risk of being affected directly by a cane this season.

That last 1 might be Hurricane Alley.

Some are calling for more recurvature & some just ignore this part of the world all together.

I was wondering what wxman57 thought of all this since he is a professional MET after all & touches on some great points that I have'nt heard some of the others mention.

[Aquawind]

wxman said it right the first time.. the lack of east coast trough and a stronger Bermuda high leads to more landfalls and a greater threat to the east coast..so the trough in the east has not been locked into place like the last few years..the warm waters,lack of rain, and high heat reflect it as well... I would like to see the specifics on more recurves this year.

[EDR1222]

I thought that was really interesting information about the decadel oscillation. I have not heard much about it, but I have been reading some more on it today. The one thing that I was making a reference to is troughs. There is not just one trough that sits parked along the eastern seaboard. There are many that come sweeping down toward the east coast during seasonal change at the end of summer. If there is a belief that the troughs are weaker during certain periods then it would have to mean that seasonal changes are delayed as well. I don't argue the possibility of strong high pressure ridges late in the year. It would just seem to contradict the natural transition to Autumn. Maybe I am off the mark on this. I do agree however, that the October and November storms are a big concern. When they form in the western carribean and being pulled north by a trough, they have no where else to go really except very close to Florida. I was reading about some key years. 1926, 1928, 1935, 1947, 1949, 1960, 1964, and 1965 ( and of course 1992 ) were all years that saw major landfalling hurricanes along the east coast of Florida or the Keys. It would be interesting to know what the overall weather patterns were like during those years, especially what was happening with the troughs during August and September of those years. Maybe it was as Wxman discussed. I guess the important thing to remember is that it can and has happened. No complacency here!

[wxman57]

I was wondering what your take is on many of the forecasts issued by individuals all over the internet that believe that there will be more recurvatures once again this year.They predict that Florida particularly the EC has little chance of being affected by a hurricane this year...You seem to think otherwise.

I'm not sure what forecasts you're looking at, but I've noticed just the opposite. Was watching JB this morning and he's been harping on the same thing - changing PDO back to a pattern like the 1940s-1960s. The NAO has been sharply negative in recent years, leading to early recurvature, but there are strong indications of a change in the works (like the PDO phase). The Bermuda high is already a bit stronger than last season. That would mean storms would recurve later not sooner.

[Guest]

Like I stated above, those individuals I mentioned have have discussed this in their 2004 outlook,not Bastardi I heard what he has said.

Believe me I wouldn't make this stuff up.

Here is a passage from Gary Gray (Millenium Weather)

Pattern: We're actually looking at a fairly similar situation to last season. The only major change in terms of our seasonal predictors is the QBO, which will be in a tropically-favorable phase this season. However, that is not one of the strong drivers for the pattern (though it is an analog member and, so, does have a hand in determining our risk assessment). The ENSO phase will not be significantly different this season. However, a weak El Nino is expected to develop as we progress through the season. This will likely have very little impact on the activity. I suspect only very limited impact on track as well. However, it could yield some inflow of moisture over the Southeast U.S. And, as that flow is out of the southwest, it could also help steer some approaching tropical cyclones out to sea. This is, in fact, blatantly obvious in our analog seasons, as several have a large percentage of storm reaching the westernmost Atlantic then turning out to sea.

Here is a passage from Independent Weather

Ever since southern Florida was hit by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the noticeable increase in tropical cyclone frequency since 1995, most residents have been waiting for the next big one to threaten the Florida peninsula. However, the probability of getting hit depends solely on the expected steering pattern in 2004, not the length of time that has passed since the previous landfall. Most of the Mean Development Region originating tropical cyclones should pass through the Caribbean Sea and head into the Gulf of Mexico or recurve just east of the Bahamas. Any threat posed to east Florida will likely originate rather close to home, such as the Bahamas. Climatological research shows that this region gets hit by hurricanes less when the QBO is westerly. Nonetheless, with a favorable southwest Atlantic in the cards, 1 tropical storm is expected to impact the eastern Florida peninsula. If it were not for westerly QBO conditions, eastern Florida would be under a much higher risk this year.

& here is the Hurricane Alley 2004 Landfall Forecast graphic

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/LANDFORC0104.jpg

No mention for EC of Florida but SE Bahamas,North coast of Hispaniola,Western Cuba,etc.

Also here is a post from Derek Ortt he did a few weeks back,who also seems to believe that the threat for Florida should stay minimal

"Would like o thank everyone for the kind words.

Today was a good day at the confrence. Had a nice talk this morning about how Florida has NOT been an active region since 1952, where we've only had 6 hurricanes making landfall on the EC of Florida since that time and how Cuba has been dry as well. May be seeing some sort of a climate change then (I sure dont mind, gives me much less to worry about).

Also had the chance to meet Steve Lyons at dinner this evening. He is extremely bright and is looking forward to the upcoming season"

***********************************************************************************

I personally will not get complacent no matter who says what,I know that any season it could happen big time.

[Aquawind]

Like I stated above, those individuals I mentioned have have discussed this in their 2004 outlook,not Bastardi I heard what he has said.

Believe me I wouldn't make this stuff up.

Here is a passage from Gary Gray (Millenium Weather)

Pattern: We're actually looking at a fairly similar situation to last season. The only major change in terms of our seasonal predictors is the QBO, which will be in a tropically-favorable phase this season. However, that is not one of the strong drivers for the pattern (though it is an analog member and, so, does have a hand in determining our risk assessment). The ENSO phase will not be significantly different this season. However, a weak El Nino is expected to develop as we progress through the season. This will likely have very little impact on the activity. I suspect only very limited impact on track as well. However, it could yield some inflow of moisture over the Southeast U.S. And, as that flow is out of the southwest, it could also help steer some approaching tropical cyclones out to sea. This is, in fact, blatantly obvious in our analog seasons, as several have a large percentage of storm reaching the westernmost Atlantic then turning out to sea.

Here is a passage from Independent Weather

Ever since southern Florida was hit by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the noticeable increase in tropical cyclone frequency since 1995, most residents have been waiting for the next big one to threaten the Florida peninsula. However, the probability of getting hit depends solely on the expected steering pattern in 2004, not the length of time that has passed since the previous landfall. Most of the Mean Development Region originating tropical cyclones should pass through the Caribbean Sea and head into the Gulf of Mexico or recurve just east of the Bahamas. Any threat posed to east Florida will likely originate rather close to home, such as the Bahamas. Climatological research shows that this region gets hit by hurricanes less when the QBO is westerly. Nonetheless, with a favorable southwest Atlantic in the cards, 1 tropical storm is expected to impact the eastern Florida peninsula. If it were not for westerly QBO conditions, eastern Florida would be under a much higher risk this year.

& here is the Hurricane Alley 2004 Landfall Forecast graphic

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/LANDFORC0104.jpg

No mention for EC of Florida but SE Bahamas,North coast of Hispaniola,Western Cuba,etc.

Also here is a post from Derek Ortt he did a few weeks back,who also seems to believe that the threat for Florida should stay minimal

"Would like o thank everyone for the kind words.

Today was a good day at the confrence. Had a nice talk this morning about how Florida has NOT been an active region since 1952, where we've only had 6 hurricanes making landfall on the EC of Florida since that time and how Cuba has been dry as well. May be seeing some sort of a climate change then (I sure dont mind, gives me much less to worry about).

Also had the chance to meet Steve Lyons at dinner this evening. He is extremely bright and is looking forward to the upcoming season"

***********************************************************************************

I personally will not get complacent no matter who says what,I know that any season it could happen big time.

Very Interesting..
Gray is counting on a el nino inhibiting steering..thats not happening yet..we shall see..

I tend to see the facts now pointing towards landfalls..Only time will tell..

Thanks for taking the time finding and posting that..

[JPmia]

"This is what you've been observing in recent years, but things are changing.

Very recently, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (related to SSTs in the eastern Pacific west of California) has switched to cold-phase. This mult-decadal oscillation has not been in a prolonged cold phase in combination with above-normal Atlantic SSTs since the 1940s-1960s. This PDO affects the trof/ridge relationship downstream. I.E., that protective east coast trof will likely be on its way out. Already, I'm seeing signs of a stronger Bermuda High ridging farther west.

This is exactly the setup we had for the 1940s through the 1960s when Florida was absolutely pummeled by major hurricanes. And that's why I say to ignore the numbers forecast and look at the patterns. I think we'll be seeing less storms in the near future but more major hurricanes and a significantly increased risk of major hurricane landfalls, particularly in Florida."

Where do we find research on this new pattern? That sounds very interesting. I have always wondered about this "shield" idea protecting Florida.