From NHC,TD still possible Recon to investigate

Johnny · #21 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:49 pm

Rainband, I have not actually looked myself but have read from a couple of seasoned posters on this board that tropical storm forced winds have been reported out to the East of this system. More than likely these tropical storm force winds were reported from clusters of thunderstorms. I do not believe these were sustained winds.

#22 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:50 pm

Johnathan, as with any system like this with lots of squalliness and thunderstorms, there are probably some squalls East of the "center" that will have TS force winds in them in gusts and possibly even "sustained"(meaning a 1 minute average). Past that it may be called later today by NHC for just the reasons stated above-to get the people who normally don't to pay attention.

Rainband · #23 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:52 pm

Thanks Johnny and david.

I knew isolated areas of wind up to TS force were possible. I thought there were reports and I wondered where 8-)

Thanks for the replies :wink:

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:54 pm

Johnnathan read my update about the disturbance at top of forum.

Rainband · #25 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Johnnathan read my update about the disturbance at top of forum.

I did Luis ,Thanks 8-)

Rainband · #26 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:04 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Buoy 42001 is reporting sustained winds of 27.2 kts (31.3 mph) from the south at the noon reading. Looks like we may just have a TD today.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001

Latest floater images show convection starting to wrap near the center. They may classify it.

PTrackerLA · #27 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:08 pm

Looks like it is wrapping up off the Louisiana coast. It will probably make landfall in SE Louisiana near Houma.

#28 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:11 pm

Looks like the convection is wrapping near the MLC. The LLC is still well to the SW near 26.5 / 92.5...well away from the convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/data/t-01/gulf.gif

Rainband · #29 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:17 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Looks like the convection is wrapping near the MLC. The LLC is still well to the SW near 26.5 / 92.5...well away from the convection.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/data/t-01/gulf.gif

Thanks for the info :wink:

So many centers so little time :lol:

#30 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:22 pm

It's such an elongated center. Another LLC moved inland earlier.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/data/t-06/gulf.gif

One broad area with lots of vortices.

Rainband · #31 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:It's such an elongated center. Another LLC moved inland earlier.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/buoydata/data/t-06/gulf.gif

One broad area with lots of vortices.

I guess this is what happens with broad areas of low pressure, from time to time mini centers..or vortices' form and then dissipate. Thats one of the reasons this thing is having trouble getting it's act together. That and the shear. If all of the energy concentrated around one of these centers..something could form. But due to the hostile enviornment thats not going to happen... Am I close. Thanks in advance teach 8-)

Johnny · #32 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:34 pm

Rainband, I believe you hit the nail on the head with that last post.

Rainband · #33 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:37 pm

Johnny wrote:Rainband, I believe you hit the nail on the head with that last post.

Thanks Johnny. Thats what I try to do here, listen ,read and learn!! Thats what I love about S2K. There is a wealth of knowledge and expertise all in one spot!!! Thats why we are :darrow:

#34 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:38 pm

Johnny wrote:Rainband, I believe you hit the nail on the head with that last post.

A+ Johnathan!!!

Rainband · #35 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:40 pm

vbhoutex wrote:A+ Johnathan!!!

Thanks... to yet another one of my Teachers!!! 8-)

ColdFront77 · #36 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:40 pm

The more vorticies there are, the more chance of development in a sense; but not in a general sense.

Rainband · #37 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:45 pm

Yes and no. :eek:

The more centers there are, the more the competition for the "energy" and the convection needed to feed the disturbance is spread out over a broad area. If there was one center under these conditions that would Bode better for development because all the energy would consolidate nearer to one center.. 8-)

ColdFront77 · #38 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:52 pm

Sure, I see your point and the "Yes part." I obviously mean in regard to there being more
vorticies in general, not that having so many of them making things more complex.

Lindaloo · #39 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 2:47 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Not only are they sending a recon but they also state conditions are "marginally favorable". So who should we believe, the
people who post on this board or the NHC?

Some of the Pro's on this board should be working for the NHC. If you do not like the advice you get here, you know where the door is.

#40 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 2:55 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Not only are they sending a recon but they also state conditions are "marginally favorable". So who should we believe, the
people who post on this board or the NHC?

Some of the Pro's on this board should be working for the NHC. If you do not like the advice you get here, you know where the door is.

Sorry but you must have me confused with someone else because I've never asked for any advice on this board.

From NHC,TD still possible Recon to investigate

Sorry but....

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