Will preseason forecasts from the pros be downgraded?

Thunder44 · #21 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 4:19 pm

It's really too early to have a second thought on forecasts for the season because we don't have a storm in June or July, which is not unusual. Maybe in August if things still are quiet.

Aquawind · #22 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:56 pm

It's not normal to have a storm before August, acutally. Only in about 50% of the seasons is there a June or July storm.

Now that is a reality check....LOL

That is a BIG reality and were not half way through July..It's gonna hit the fan in due time..

We have been spoiled with this early season activity in recent years..

HurricaneBill · #23 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:35 pm

1998! Alex didn't form until the beginning of August! Yet we ended with 14 named storms.

As for El Nino, I think if one is starting, it would probably affect the 2005 season.

Yet, I have not heard anyone saying anything about the Eastern Pacific. If an el nino is forming, shouldn't the EPAC have had more than one named storm by now?

Heck, el nino or not, shouldn't the EPAC have had more than one storm by now?

Last year was weird, having to wait until the latter part of August for the first hurricane to form in the EPAC. Yet, the EPAC was still able to churn out 7 hurricanes before season's end. Although none became major.

Overall, I think it is still too early to see how the season will pan out.

#24 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Jul 11, 2004 1:23 pm

Too early to tell. That's my verdict.

I say if any season is quiet coming up, it's next year, not this year. However, let's wait to talk about next year til next year and get through 2004.

-Andrew92

#25 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Jul 11, 2004 3:25 pm

IF preseason forecasts are downgraded, I don't see more than a one storm downgrade due to the lack of the first storm and likely there'd be no downgrade due to this reason alone. IF they were to be downgraded, perhaps there'd be some other reason(s) cited, but I don't know what they'd be.

Climatologically speaking, the Atlantic hurricane season has well more than half of its named storms form during the 8/15-10/15 period. With it being only 7/11, not having the first storm doesn't phase me in the least. If none have formed by 7/31 or even 8/10, I'd likely still say about the same thing. If none have formed by, say, 8/20-25, then I'd say it is starting to become significant. By the way, early-mid July were about as dead as any period climatologically speaking for the overall 1886-1977 period for the 6/11-10/31 period. Since the 1990's this period has picked up somewhat in activity.

Josephine96 · #26 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Jul 11, 2004 3:32 pm

It's only July 11th people.. The storms are bound to arrive sooner or later.. :wink:

HurricaneBill · #27 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sun Jul 11, 2004 10:41 pm

Once/if they downgrade the seasonal forecast, the day they do, not only will Alex pop up, so will Bonnie! That'd be ironic.

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 12, 2004 6:41 am

HurricaneBill wrote:Once/if they downgrade the seasonal forecast, the day they do, not only will Alex pop up, so will Bonnie! That'd be ironic.

Yeah that may happen indeed.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 14, 2004 7:59 am

So far nothing is in the pipe that may develop in the next 10 days as I can see.But I expand the original question to august and that question is if by august 15th nothing has developed then I think more consideration to downgrade the outlooks and forecasts has to be made.But IMO the atlantic should have Alex before august 15th.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 18, 2004 6:47 pm

Bumping this thread to see more comments about this interesting theme.From now I say that Dr Gray when he updates by early august will downgrade by one the numbers from 14/8/3 but we will see about that.

#31 Postby **abajan** » Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:05 pm

I don't think there will be any change in the numbers. Just a feeling.

Anonymous · #32 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Bumping this thread to see more comments about this interesting theme.From now I say that Dr Gray when he updates by early august will downgrade by one the numbers from 14/8/3 but we will see about that.

Why would he?

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:16 pm

Supercane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bumping this thread to see more comments about this interesting theme.From now I say that Dr Gray when he updates by early august will downgrade by one the numbers from 14/8/3 but we will see about that.

Why would he?

Just a hunch about him doing that as he changes numbers at the updates during the seasons.I am leaning about him lowering by one but he may well leave them the same 14/8/3 however we will know on august 6.

Anonymous · #34 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Supercane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bumping this thread to see more comments about this interesting theme.From now I say that Dr Gray when he updates by early august will downgrade by one the numbers from 14/8/3 but we will see about that.

Why would he?

Just a hunch about him doing that as he changes numbers at the updates during the seasons.I am leaning about him lowering by one but he may well leave them the same 14/8/3 however we will know on august 6.

Oh ok...if I was Gray I'd leave the numbers as is...but who knows what he'll do. lol

Will preseason forecasts from the pros be downgraded?

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