Any one notice the rotation...

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Nimbus
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#21 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 28, 2004 4:20 pm

I still think things will start to develop near buoy 42036 off Tampa. The daily pressures have been yo yo-ing for the last few days.
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vbhoutex
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#22 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jul 28, 2004 4:29 pm

It looks like a TW open to the South on quikscat or at least it did early this afternoon. At least 3 different models do show some development in this region, but nothing(at least earlier this afternoon)that gets any further than an area of low pressure. That is not to say things can't change. GFS takes it into Central TX coast day 5 as basically an open wave. Ukmet, if I remember correctly takes the broad area of low pressure NW into LA around day 4. The ETA(i've only seen what has been posted)does get bullish with the system, but ETA is not a good tropical model either. AS ALWAYS WITH THE TROPICS, WE WAIT, WE WATCH, WE TRY AND FORECAST!!

EDIT: A further look at bouys MAY suggest that a circulation is beginning to develop with a "center" of the circulation somewhere over the Everglades. If you follow the bouys up the keys you will notice the winds coming from WNW to WSW the further E you go. Some pressure falls are noted with the lowest pressures at the bouys closest to the S tip of the peninsula. The pressure falls are not significant at this point, but if they continue much further then they will become something to look at. Right now they are not any more significant than the normal afternoon pressure fall.

I am not saying something is developing, just pointing out observations that MAY suggest the possibility that it is starting to happen. I will definitely be watching it for further development as it moves further West.
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