Model tracks for 92L look interesting

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yoda
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#21 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:28 pm

Alright Luis. These DVORAK numbers will be critical IMO to see if we have a developing TD.
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#22 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:30 pm

I believe it may be upgraded later today if the convention continues to grow, it is now over warmer waters and the upper levels are condusive for development.
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#23 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:31 pm

I'll be watching.....
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#24 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:34 pm

stormernie wrote:I believe it may be upgraded later today if the convention continues to grow, it is now over warmer waters and the upper levels are condusive for development.


Hmm? Convention? Just playing with ya! :D [/b]
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:34 pm

Image

In this west atlantic and caribbean pic 92L is starting to show up in the extreme right part of the pic.
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#26 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:36 pm

LOL.. I was looking at the pic and I was like, where is 92L? :lol: :lol: We will have to watch it closely. Luis, is it favorable for development out ahead of it?
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#27 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:37 pm

Has anyone posted this yet?

000
WHXX01 KWBC 051421
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922004) ON 20040805 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040805 1200 040806 0000 040806 1200 040807 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 41.2W 17.1N 43.3W 17.6N 45.5W 18.4N 48.1W
BAMM 16.8N 41.2W 17.3N 43.9W 17.8N 46.5W 18.5N 49.3W
A98E 16.8N 41.2W 16.7N 44.2W 17.1N 47.1W 18.1N 49.7W
LBAR 16.8N 41.2W 17.1N 43.7W 17.7N 46.5W 18.5N 49.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040807 1200 040808 1200 040809 1200 040810 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 50.8W 21.7N 55.9W 22.2N 60.0W 21.1N 63.7W
BAMM 19.4N 52.3W 21.5N 58.2W 22.3N 62.9W 21.5N 67.3W
A98E 19.4N 52.1W 21.4N 57.4W 23.3N 62.8W 24.4N 67.7W
LBAR 19.6N 52.7W 21.5N 58.0W 23.7N 63.1W 23.7N 65.8W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS 50KTS

50 KTS = about 60 mph...
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#28 Postby alicia-w » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:05 pm

why wouldnt it still be TD2? isnt it the same system (possibly)regenerating?
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#29 Postby yoda » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:08 pm

alicia-w wrote:why wouldnt it still be TD2? isnt it the same system (possibly)regenerating?


We are talking about 92L.. not 91L. 91L became TD#2...
So 92L which is East of the Windward Islands would be TD#3.
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