TD3 Projected Track may Change if TD2 Redevelops...

[MGC]

System are far removed thus precluding any interactions.......MGC

[The Dark Knight]

Stormsfury wrote, "*SF stocks up of a ton of highly caffeinated Live Wire Mountain Dews for the long haul*." Hahahahaha......Nice.......

[MWatkins]

System are far removed thus precluding any interactions.......MGC

Strict TC to TC interaction is not the concern.

If a TC (Bonnie) recurves and flips over the subtropical ridge...it will weaken the western extent of the ridge as it does so....and the stronger Bonnie gets in the interim...the greater the effect on the ridge in the mean layers.

The effect is indirect. If you look at the 500MB charts tomorrow if the globals pick up on Bonnie...the weakness in the ridge at that level may become more pronounced.

We have to wait and see...but again this is not a true TC to TC interaction...

MW

[Anonymous]

I live in Metarie LA. I hope none of these storms make it to SELA.

I still don't know where Old Metairie is located.

[Stormchaser16]

The reason why the GFS and other models do NOT handle the remains of TD 2 well is b/c there is NOTHING to handle. I do NOT see any SIGNIFICANT development...
could it make it back to TD status before it crashes into northern Mexico?

Yeah maybe. Big whoop.

A couple of very quick things...of course more information later on as time permits...

1. Initial forecasts, paticually the first couple of offical forecasts on weak/developing systems are very low confidence deals. Intensity and exact center location, and initial motion are bigtime variables for the guidance, and there is little confidence in any of these variables right now. Let's watch the trends and see what the models do with the next couple of runs.

2. If 91L redevelops into TD2 again and intensifies...it's recurvature could ultimately impact the track of TD3. The 12Z GFS DOES initalize TD3 well...but does NOT develop TD2 at all. Since the GFDL runs against the GFS background...TD2 non-development would impact that model track too.

TD2 would likely create a weakness in the ridge to the north and potentially shift the track of TD3 to the right side of the NHC track.

Of course we have time to watch but the track will likely change some in the coming advisories...especially if TD2 redevelops.

MW

Woops lol.......

I think TD2 will likely continue to intensify rather quickly, however any hinderance in the environment would cause it to weaken very quickly as well......

[BayouVenteux]

I live in Metarie LA. I hope none of these storms make it to SELA.

I still don't know where Old Metairie is located.

Where Yat, bro'? ...Old Metairie is roughly the area between Airline, Causeway, Vets and the 17th St. Canal. Though I live up here in Ascension, I'm pretty familiar with Metry. My sistah-in law lives ova by da' lake on Transcontinental.