Evidence of Ridge Building North of Ivan

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CYCLONE MIKE
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#21 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:21 pm

Would the strengthening ridge cause the trough in west Texas, that is forecast to turn Ivan, slow down and/or weaken some? Therefore allowing him to keep coming NW for a longer period of time? Any Comments?
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#22 Postby golter » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:37 pm

If ridging is happening to the north, why isnt outflow restricted? It looks to me that there is not much in the way of anything north of Ivan. Ft. Walton Beach/Elgin AFB area is my call...
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#23 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:37 pm

I see this thing moving north right now. Wheres the ridge?
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#24 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:44 pm

That is just what other people were saying on the 1st page of the post. It could easily move back to the NW any time
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#25 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:59 pm

golter wrote:If ridging is happening to the north, why isnt outflow restricted? It looks to me that there is not much in the way of anything north of Ivan. Ft. Walton Beach/Elgin AFB area is my call...


I said that evidence for the ridge would be if outflow becomes flatter. I never said it had happened yet - although, to me, it is now less arced than it was a few hours ago in the northern semi-circle...particuarly the new outflow.
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#26 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:01 pm

*bump*

I don't want to jump on this too early, but, Ivan has slowed and jogged to the WNW recently. I don't have recon fixes to prove this, it's just by eyeing the latest satellite images. If Ivan has slowed, and if his movement is actually WNW or even NW, then the ridge has indeed begun to strengthen to Ivan's N, NNE and NE.
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#27 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:06 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:*bump*

I don't want to jump on this too early, but, Ivan has slowed and jogged to the WNW recently. I don't have recon fixes to prove this, it's just by eyeing the latest satellite images. If Ivan has slowed, and if his movement is actually WNW or even NW, then the ridge has indeed begun to strengthen to Ivan's N, NNE and NE.


I see the WNW-NW bump

Louisiana is Under the Gun!! :eek:
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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#28 Postby QueenBee » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:14 pm

Purdue I have a question? How will both the trough and the little system affect Ivan? Also do you think the ridge will stay in place or will it be eroded?
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#29 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:22 pm

*Gulp* I just noticed that jog too...
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#30 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:50 pm

Never mind...think i'll leave the motion estimates to the NHC pros. The WNW jog I mentioned stopped and Ivan is moving towards the NNW again.
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#31 Postby QueenBee » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:56 pm

Purdue the number that scares me the most is 87.0 west.
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#32 Postby MBryant » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:03 pm

The IR shows a lessening of the dry air between the convection in SE Texas and Ivan along and just offshore of Louisiana.

Could this be a developing weakness in the high and therefore a draw to Ivan or am I misreading the IR?
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