new jeanne forecast... 115KT at landfall

[Brent]

Let me see, the NHC has it going 14 MPH, reaching land in 24 hours, so if you say it's going to hit in 12 hours, is it going 28 MPH? If so, then wouldn't the intensity remain higher across the state?

No...

8am position: THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

Now... assuming it keeps moving at 14 mph, it'll be onshore in 13.5 hours(or 9:30pm EDT).

[dhweather]

Wow Derek, this is nice in the sense that in my insomnia at 3 this morning, I thought it'd would
get into the GOM before turning. Now you do too.

Too bad for Florida, God be with everyone there!!!

[Wnghs2007]

What is that sharp turn there for. I would think it would go North and then NNE but not from NNW to NE almost instantly. Just a question Dereke. Love your forecast and only wanted to know what will make it turn that fast to the NE.

[Greg]

Couldn't Lake Okeechobee add fuel to it?

[Derek Ortt]

thats the center of the eye.

the leading edge of the eye will be inland no later than 8 p.m. it appears, with the eye wall sometime around 6:30-7 p.m.

[Sanibel]

Derek


I think you meant "waters upwelled by [Ivan]"


Kudos to you Derek. You are more accurate than NHC in the early range...

[FooBob]

Derek


I think you meant "waters upwelled by [Ivan]"


Kudos to you Derek. You are more accurate than NHC in the early range...

Please explain. I don't see a turn called for (by NHC) until Jeanne reaches Freeport (Grand Bahama) or so. Hasn't this current west path been exactly what the NHC has been predicting?

If it turns NNW or NW by West End, Grand Bahama, is Derek's forecast a bust? Not saying it will, but just wondering if his forecast could bust.

[fci]

good lord, i don't even want to ask, but what is 115KTs and given your track, Derek, what does that mean for me here in northern palm beach county

1.157 MPH per knot.
So 115 knots translates to 132 MPH.

[TampaFl]

[caneman]

Nobody is ready here either. Looks like we have to get the porch cleared again. We are getting off easy compared to Vero.

Caneman: You're in it now buddy, expect reports from you until blackout.


115 knots is very reasonable. I'm hanging for mild lift prior to landfall. Straight west gives us hurricane winds all the way over here!


Looks like High has punched all the way through to the Gulf and even put a curve into the bottom of the weak trough. First outflow band over us now with small pre-hurricane cotton ball clouds showing up like they always do before a cyclone. First north breezes starting...

Noticeable humidity in coolish air...

I'll keep ya posted as long as I can. Lost power from Frances early into the storm. Getting more and more resigned to the fact that I will again. Not sure next time though that I'll get power back as quick. Well at least I learned not to keep more than a couple days worth of stuff in the freezer-fridge. Feel like a Gypsy these days.

[Derek Ortt]

I do mean Frances. The part of the GOM this would move over is the same part that Frances moved over