MJO

[Astro_man92]

astro_man, hehe I know the feeling. I always try to take this time to get as much done around the house as possible, because I know that once it gets active, I'll be all over these boards and won't get anything done


Time goes by fast though, before ya know it, it will be Mid-August and we'll be on fire again.

Good idea i'll get right on it

[cycloneye]

When things become very active after mid august as the more favorable MJO arrives it will coincide with the start in ernest of the CV season.

[Derek Ortt]

Frank,

Arlene and Cindy peaked out just shy of hurricane status, and there is debate regarding Cindy's status

Bret and Gert were weak TS's that kind of got lucky that they moved as slow as they did

[Derek Ortt]

remember that 2003 went the same way. We had 4 named storms by mid July, then nothing until mid-August in Erika. The F storm did not form until late August.

One should not be surprised if we only see 1 or 2 storms in August. 2003 only had 3 (2 if you do not count Grace as a legit TC), and still there were 21 TD's that year, with 16 systems becoming named storms

Thus, if August is on the quiet side, the season could still be very active

[Astro_man92]

Frank,

Arlene and Cindy peaked out just shy of hurricane status, and there is debate regarding Cindy's status

Bret and Gert were weak TS's that kind of got lucky that they moved as slow as they did

I aree and ARLENE WAS STRONGER THAN CINDY .with arlene the pressure was lower but everything else ecept for the tracks is the same

[wxmann_91]

Look what is comming out of Africa.A big sal surge that will cap the CV season for a while.

this lull is making the tropics boring I bet if the SAL hadn't come we would have had 3 or 4 more named stroms already but that is just me.

I know I should get a life, but I feel that way too. And in two weeks (when the tropics are to get active again) I start school, which means I can't spend the majority of my day here anymore.

[Astro_man92]

Look what is comming out of Africa.A big sal surge that will cap the CV season for a while.

this lull is making the tropics boring I bet if the SAL hadn't come we would have had 3 or 4 more named stroms already but that is just me.

I know I should get a life, but I feel that way too. And in two weeks (when the tropics are to get active again) I start school, which means I can't spend the majority of my day here anymore.

I'm going to be back in school on september 10 4 days B4 the peak I think

[cycloneye]

Look what is comming out of Africa.A big sal surge that will cap the CV season for a while.

this lull is making the tropics boring I bet if the SAL hadn't come we would have had 3 or 4 more named stroms already but that is just me.

I know I should get a life, but I feel that way too. And in two weeks (when the tropics are to get active again) I start school, which means I can't spend the majority of my day here anymore.

I'm going to be back in school on september 10 4 days B4 the peak I think

The peak day is September 10th.

[Astro_man92]

awww shoot that stinks realy bad grrrrrrrr

[cycloneye]

Now the new update shows all the basin unfavorable as the dry MJO covers all the areas illustrated by the brown lines.

[cycloneye]

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/

Another prospective of how the MJO is doing now.Favorable in the WPAC now for disturbances to develop (Now new storm9w developing rapidly) but unfavorable in the EPAC and Atlantic 92 and 93 trying to develop for many days but nothing.But wait a couple of weeks and you will see a big change in the Atlantic Basin.

[cycloneye]

Bumping because this is the cause of the lack of cyclones in the atlantic now.

[cycloneye]

Nobody wants to comment about this factor that moves around all thr basins? I will be bringing this thread up as soon it drops because I want all to see how the MJO is doing.Right now good news for those who want to see action in the atlantic is that part of the EPAC is already in the green lines and that is moving eastward and with time that favorable MJO will enter the atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

keeps us updated on this cycloneye! It will be interesting to watch the dry air move eastward and to see what happens in August once it does.

Thanks.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Very informative posts cycloneeye. Its funny some people on the boards are saying that the season is a bust already and only expect one or two more hurricanes. People are ridiculous.

Matt

[Andrew92]

Derek is reminded of 2003 looking at this year and the MJO, and I agree. The pattern might be like 2003, and 2003 is an analog for this year.

But I am also reminded of mid-August 1995 a little bit. We only had two named storms form in the first 20 days of August, and they both came within about 24 hours (August 8 there was Felix, and the next day there was Gabrielle). And if it hadn't been for Felix lasting as long as he did, the tropics would have been just as boring as they are now. Gabrielle was a quick Mexico storm, ala Bret and Gert although stronger because it briefly stalled offshore.

Humberto, the next name down, didn't form until Felix was gone...and I kinda remember to about the very minute that Felix was gone too! And we know what soon happened.....

Also remember Felix formed a few days after Erin dissipated in 1995. That year was active, but not every day had activity. This year has been active, but not every day needs to have activity.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts....because I don't think it will last as long as some are thinking, and I base that opinion mostly on the MJO.

-Andrew92

[Anonymous]

Yea...I actually think Florida is in for another bad year...but further south IMO (Key West, Islamorada, Key Largo, Miami). The season is nowhere near gone.

[Hurricanehink]

MJO isn't everything. IIRC, Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, and Earl all formed in the Dry phase. Still, it helps. Was the last batch of storms in the wet phase?

[wxwatcher91]

well when we get back to the wet phase all the ocean temps are gonna soaring because nothing has touched them in the past few days

[johngaltfla]

Derek is reminded of 2003 looking at this year and the MJO, and I agree. The pattern might be like 2003, and 2003 is an analog for this year.

But I am also reminded of mid-August 1995 a little bit. We only had two named storms form in the first 20 days of August, and they both came within about 24 hours (August 8 there was Felix, and the next day there was Gabrielle). And if it hadn't been for Felix lasting as long as he did, the tropics would have been just as boring as they are now. Gabrielle was a quick Mexico storm, ala Bret and Gert although stronger because it briefly stalled offshore.

Humberto, the next name down, didn't form until Felix was gone...and I kinda remember to about the very minute that Felix was gone too! And we know what soon happened.....

Also remember Felix formed a few days after Erin dissipated in 1995. That year was active, but not every day had activity. This year has been active, but not every day needs to have activity.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts....because I don't think it will last as long as some are thinking, and I base that opinion mostly on the MJO.

-Andrew92

Yes, but taking into account the SST's, weren't they cooler in 1993? Thus even if there are fewer storms this August, does not the potential for moreintense storms exist?????[/i]