ITCZ Wave 1008mb: RAMSDIS Floater Moved

[elysium]

A westward track into the Caribbean as a low rider appears very reasonable. If this system can develop properly, it would be reasonable to assume that we would have an open door between august 10 and 13 for entry into the Florida Straits/ GOM from the northwestern Caribbean.

The primary consideration, of course, would be development at this point in time. I think the prospects are very good, but at this stage it is way too early to make any estimates on storm strength, unless you listen to some of the talk going on around the net and mainstream media about superior conditions for development. We must wait and see.

Bob Bob

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

August 10-13; entering GOM, Charley??

Hopefully not
Since it's only moving at 10 knots, wouldn't it be more like aug. 13 to 15?

[gkrangers]

Listen to yourselves....there is no situation. Theres no depression..no nothing. Wait a few days before talking about this "storm" entering the GOM..sheesh.

[deltadog03]

I agree...calm down folks...LOL...i looked and the upper level shear is pretty low, the upper level divergance is increasing and the lower level convergance is increasing....so, maybe something could come out of this...time will tell.....here we go again!!!

[elysium]

This one has potential but it's still a long way off. Much can happen between now and August 13th. We also need to remember that this system has yet to develop beyond wave status. Let's first see if we have a storm to track into the N.W. Caribbean. An interesting pattern is setting up, though, that could steer the storm into either the Florida Straits or the S.E. GOM. It needs to enter the Caribbean at low latitude. That is key right now. If this system can be seen into the Caribbean at low latitude, everything is in place for entry into Florida or perhaps the GOM. This system may not develop at all.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I know it's too early. I was just engaging in some random speculation

[beachbum_al]

So really it is 10 days from the Carribean if it survives?

[caribepr]

Where's my 8 ball??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

if it survives it will likely enter the carribean in around 5 days I am thinking. 10 kt speed is 240 kt/day...I'd need to know the distance in kt-miles between it and the antilles

[gkrangers]

Nautical miles.

NM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you. NM is it.

[T-man]

*yawn* five days?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whoops I hit the button 2 times too many...

[elysium]

Oh no; not 10 days.

If this system can survive and develop, it is safe to estimate time of arrival into the eastern Caribbean at 4 or 5 days at the most. We might even have arrival as early as 3 days from now if forward speed is adjusted upward from the 15 MPH original estimate.

High pressure is building over its top, enhancing its westward component. This could allow for entry into the Caribbean on the 5th or 6th. A S.E. to N.W. Caribbean crossing usually takes 4 days. About this time, the ridge should be retreating in advance of fairly deep trough for this time of year. Naturally, recurvature would follow, and depending on how far back the high retreats, coupled with how sharply the storm recurves, will tell us whether we have a Florida or GOM event. This system may fall apart very soon and never develop. It has improved cyclonic circulation and is headed into a favorable area for development, but that is all that we know at this time. Much more than that is needed before introducing intensity forecasting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wait isn't 10 kt 11.5 mph? Sorry but I'm a math freak...

[wxmann_91]

IMO if this develops it will be a fish. Models suggest the ridge will be almost nonexistant because of Harvey.

[Ivanhater]

i really think this is gonna develop

[Swimdude]

But it sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo far away.

The longer for us to track it!

[clfenwi]

10 knots ~ 15 mph

However, since degrees are measured in nautical miles, it does you no favors to convert to mph.

The Caribbean starts at 60° West. At 8 PM the center of the low was at 28.5 ° West. So the difference in degrees longitude is 31.5.

Now, at the equator 1° = 60 nautical miles. However, that number decreases as you go away from the equator. The conversion factor is
cos (° latitutde) . Multiply the conversion factor by 60 and you get how many miles are in one degree of longitude for the particular latitude.

So, let's use 20° as the average latitude. That yields a conversion factor of .9397 . .9397*60 ~ 56.4 nautical miles.

So 56.4 * 31.5 = 1777 nautical miles, assuming a more or less due west course. 1777 / 10 knots = 178 hours, which is a bit more than a week from now.

Corrected stupid math error. I just got done saying don't convert the 10 knots to 15 mph and what did I do...sheesh

And yes 10 knots / 15 mph is the forward speed given by NHC in the most recent TWD

[elysium]

Did the NHC say that it was traveling forward at only 10 kts? Hmmm, I think 15 mph is usually a little more realistic for this region and conditions, but it's quite possible. Should increase up to at least 15 soon.