TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.

Whoa whoa whoa.

We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?

yeah amazing!!!lol

[WeatherEmperor]

I really wouldnt mind tracking yet another fish. What else would there be to do around here?

<RICKY>

[Astro_man92]

Can some one post a link to a visible Sat. image?

[sma10]

Anyone who assumes that because TD10 is so close to the trough that he will immediately recurve may be mistaken.

As Derecho said, this system is likely to be heavily sheared shortly. I think the bigger question is not whether the system turns north over the next 3 days, but rather will it survive the next 3 days.

[bvigal]

Exactly! It is way too early for any kind of confidence in where this may go, even in general sense. Yes, looks like a fish. But, if shear hurts it enough, and becomes disorganized or slows down, will track more west, etc. I'm certainly not making up my mind until a few more model runs to compare to reality, re: environment out there.

[gkrangers]

Can some one post a link to a visible Sat. image?

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_display.cgi?ATCF_NAME=al102005.gif&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&SIZE=full&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&DIR=/tcweb/website/products/tc05/ATL/10L.TEN/ssmi/ir1km&CURRENT=20050813.1845.goes-12.ir.x.TEN.10L.jpg&YEAR=2005&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=10L.TEN&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=05-EPAC-06E.FERNANDA,05-EPAC-07E.GREG,05-ATL-09L.IRENE,05-ATL-10L.TEN,05-WPAC-10W.SANVU,05-WPAC-63W.INVEST,05-WPAC-64W.INVEST,

[bvigal]

Can some one post a link to a visible Sat. image?

GHCC visible

[artist]

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

make sure you are looking at td 10 by clicking on 10l.ten at the top left corner

[WindRunner]

Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.

Whoa whoa whoa.

We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?

yeah amazing!!!lol

Sure, why not? The earlier, the better!

But don't trust it; please don't. That's a following-conditions-for-now call, and conditions change.

[sma10]

If you believe that TD10 recurving is a no-brainer, check out the Euro interpretation:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5081312!!/

loop from days 3 - 7 and you'll see that (at least according to this model) the system will come under the influence of a ridge and turn west. As Jan has said though, 7 days is often times fantasyland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

13/1745 UTC 14.3N 44.5W T2.0/2.0 96

[tallywx]

Forgive my math, but dont the majority of those models show this TD10 going out to sea?

<RICKY>

That's my question, too. And also, didn't the models all show the same thing at this point, with Irene?

Yes, the models said Irene would be a fish storm as well. Um, Irene IS a fish storm!

Yeah, only problem is that they called for it to be a fish about 3000 miles east of where it's actually turning north.

That's about as bad as the models predicting a storm to turn north into Florida and have the storm hit California instead.

[WindRunner]

2.0!! No wonder they upgraded.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks pretty strong on satellite...
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[mahicks]

It looks pretty strong on satellite...
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I agree. I looks to have a due north heading right now too..

[cycloneye]

For our fellow members who live in the Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico as I see this system move with the pattern now in the atlantic a deep oceanic trough in the central atlantic it is safe to say that the NE caribbean islands will not see TD#10/Jose in our neck of the woods.However I would continue to monitor it until it passes our latituds from 16n and above to 18n just in case but all indications is for the system to pass at a safe distance from the NE caribbean islands.

[Swimdude]

Whoa whoa whoa.

We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?

Hehehe... I love this place.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing looks better then Irene to me. The Cdo is right over the LLC. With banding all around. In last nights 40 knot areas on quickscats really make it hard for me to call this just a depression.

[air360]

Didn't everyone say the same with Irene? She has come close, but was signifacantly farther N and a little more east at this point. We could have a much more southern track with more intensification and slamming into the carolinas.

Whoa whoa whoa.

We haven't even had an advisory yet and we're calling landfall points?

Im going to say that he is talking about Irene....at least...i hope he is..otherwise..whoa...way early there

[dhweather]

It appears to me that the trough plunging south is picking up 96L/TD10
This thing may not pass 50W