Remnants of 10L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[elysium]

It looks like a 7 day forecast. So the little turn northward....they're off. At around day 7 there's a turn a little more to the north followed by hard left? Ridge. Ummm. uggh. << Clockwise you know. Georgia on my mind.

[senorpepr]

Do each one of those dots on the UKMET and GDFL represent 24 hours?

12 hours through the first couple of days and then 24 hours...

Think it's 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 like the NHC...

Right... 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, 120

[elysium]

What ???!!! That far out ? Well that's it. That's more than enough time for it to refill. I had thought next Sunday squeek a little north in there, but chuck that out the window.

I'm not saying anything. Wow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow look at that blow up right over that closed LLC. This is slowly but surely coming back. I would not be suprized if t numbers go back up to 1.5.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

It is not dead JIM!!!

[Swimdude]

Interesting that they didn't mention the Caribbean wave again tonight.

[Steve H.]

18Z GFDL has it as a strong cat 3 116 knots at the end of its run and in about the same location.

Steve,

That is the 950 MB wind forecast. That is not a surface wind forecast. The 116 kts would roughly equal 100-105 mph, which is a Category 2 hurricane. Don't be mislead by that 950 MB wind reading...

I stand corrected, that's the 950 mb height. She still has some life though.

[boca]

Tropical wave TD10 still alive.

[superfly]

Wow look at that blow up right over that closed LLC. This is slowly but surely coming back. I would not be suprized if t numbers go back up to 1.5.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

It is not dead JIM!!!

Actually it's north of the LLC and getting sheared off. I think it'll have a chance to re-organize over the next few days but I wouldn't expect any fast development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree there is still shear pushing the convection to the north. But if the slightly decrease happens watch this system become organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest shows that the LLC is getting much stronger tonight. In has developed some convection over it. Yes most of the convection is to the north of the LLC but when that shear dies down. Then this could really get going.


So I'm not quite ready to start going nuts for the upgrade. At least not intill I see the convection hold over the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is a fight going on right now between the favable to the east then the unfavable to the west. It appears that slowly a the favable(Upper high) to the east is slowlly building in. While the unfavable(weakness/trough) is pushing slowly to the west. If this system can stay moving really slow the chances go up.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The SAL is also favable for this system. But a big suprize has started moving off the African coast. A huge brust of SAL is going ot kill anything that moves off Africa.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[HURAKAN]

Days ago I was talking to John Morales and we concurred on the same thing, we believe the main factor that may inhibit a historic season at the end will be SAL. Is true that water temperatures are wonderful for cyclones to develop, but SAL is like a plague that kills everything. Thereafter, if another mass runs through the Atlantic, then our boring hours will become weeks.

[artist]

Seems the SAL is on the weak scale though according to the table.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the SAL is just seting up in that area. I don't think it will move across the Atlantic. But that can change.

Also the system is starting to form banding over the eastern side. With a area of convection forming right over the LLC. I expect t numbers to start going up.

Also if it moves to fast it is history.

[artist]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.08.2005 14.3N 47.0W WEAK

12UTC 15.08.2005 15.4N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2005 17.0N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2005 18.0N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2005 19.0N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2005 20.2N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2005 21.4N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2005 22.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2005 24.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2005 25.4N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2005 26.1N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2005 26.2N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2005 26.2N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L



INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 15



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 14.0 47.6 310./ 7.0

6 14.7 48.2 322./ 8.6

12 15.1 49.0 297./ 9.2

18 15.7 49.1 353./ 6.2

24 16.5 50.0 308./11.7

30 17.1 50.8 311./10.0

36 17.6 51.4 307./ 7.5

42 18.2 52.0 313./ 8.3

48 18.6 53.0 294./ 9.9

54 19.0 53.8 297./ 9.0

60 19.7 54.8 305./11.0

66 20.3 56.0 297./13.3

72 21.1 57.2 304./13.4

78 21.6 58.2 294./10.8

84 22.4 59.5 304./13.9

90 23.1 60.4 309./11.3

96 23.9 61.3 307./11.1

102 24.4 62.4 299./11.1

108 25.0 63.1 307./ 8.7

114 25.5 63.7 314./ 7.8

120 25.9 64.3 303./ 6.7

126 26.3 65.0 295./ 7.2

[senorpepr]

As for the SAL factor, this is something I mentioned back in April and May. The ITCZ has been running about a month ahead of schedule. We saw that with the monsoonal flow over southeast Asia. We're seeing it in the Atlantic. One potential issue that may occur because of this one-month difference is a change in the precipitation and wind currents over contiential Africa. With the ITCZ moving north a month ahead of schedule, this may allow for SAL conditions, normally limited by ITCZ activity, to occur uninhibited.

Now... does that mean the season is a bust? No. It's just some food for thought. I'm still sticking with what I said back in mid- to late-July: 18-22 named storms. Which, if you extrapolate what we've seen over the past decade to this year... that is very possible.

[gkrangers]

A 1008 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
14.5N49W-16.5N46W.

[Wthrman13]

18Z GFDL has it as a strong cat 3 116 knots at the end of its run and in about the same location.

Steve,

That is the 950 MB wind forecast. That is not a surface wind forecast. The 116 kts would roughly equal 100-105 mph, which is a Category 2 hurricane. Don't be mislead by that 950 MB wind reading...

I stand corrected, that's the 950 mb height. She still has some life though.

Keep in mind though that in a strong hurricane the 950 mb pressure level may be near or even below the surface near the center of the storm