Invest 98L is born!

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:09 am

Current Weather Conditions:
Veracruz / Las Bajadas / General Heriberto Jara, Mexico
(MMVR) 19-09N 096-11W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 21, 2005 - 10:45 PM EDTAug 21, 2005 - 09:45 PM CDTAug 21, 2005 - 08:45 PM MDTAug 21, 2005 - 07:45 PM PDTAug 21, 2005 - 06:45 PM ADTAug 21, 2005 - 05:45 PM HDT
2005.08.22 0245 UTC
Wind from the NNW (340 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.95 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob MMVR 220245Z 34010KT 7SM SCT012 OVC080 24/23 A2995 RMK SLP135 8/57/ 956
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#22 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:18 am

The 12z Gfdl only moves it a few degrees west over the next 60 hours. WOW WOW WOW!!!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.9N 94.2W 18.8N 95.6W 19.0N 96.9W 19.2N 98.2W

BAMM 18.9N 94.2W 19.2N 95.6W 19.5N 96.9W 19.9N 98.2W

A98E 18.9N 94.2W 19.2N 95.7W 19.5N 97.2W 19.8N 98.8W

LBAR 18.9N 94.2W 18.8N 95.8W 18.9N 97.6W 19.0N 99.6W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050824 1200 050825 1200 050826 1200 050827 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.5N 99.5W 20.7N 103.0W 22.3N 107.3W 23.8N 111.6W

BAMM 20.3N 99.7W 21.4N 103.6W 22.8N 108.3W 24.3N 113.5W

A98E 20.4N 100.7W 22.5N 105.3W 25.2N 109.9W 27.1N 115.3W

LBAR 19.5N 101.8W 21.0N 106.7W 23.1N 112.0W 25.1N 117.4W

SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 70KTS 72KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 34KTS 35KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 94.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 92.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 91.2W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

The hurricane models hold it over water for at least 24 hours. This system is moving slowlier then thought. I don't get why ship holds it?
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#23 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:25 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
Winds steady increasing
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#24 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:30 am

This thing went booom!!! I expect it to be making landfall around 15 hours from now. So only 40 to 45 mph. But given time this could get quite strong.
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#25 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:32 am

I just hope the NHC doesnt waste their time by only naming it a TD for several hours and nothing else. But given the fact that this thing just exploded so quickly who knows.

<RICKY>
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#26 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:37 am

Another very interesting fact:

If Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm today it will break, but just BARELY, the record for the EARLIEST 10th named storm in the history of the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Storm Jerry in 1995 currently holds that record when it became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC August 23rd...
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#27 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:40 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Another very interesting fact:

If Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm today it will break, but just BARELY, the record for the EARLIEST 10th named storm in the history of the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Storm Jerry in 1995 currently holds that record when it became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC August 23rd...


That would be correct. It better hurry up though. Not only is the record at stake but also its time over those warm waters.

<RICKY>
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#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:43 am

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

And believe or not 2005 is still ahead of 1933 at this date.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#29 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:51 am

22/1215 UTC 20.5N 95.1W T1.5/1.5 98
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:00 am


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 94.4W 19.0N 95.9W 19.1N 97.1W 19.3N 98.4W
BAMM 19.1N 94.4W 19.3N 95.8W 19.6N 97.1W 19.9N 98.4W
A98E 19.1N 94.4W 19.5N 96.1W 19.7N 97.8W 20.1N 99.5W
LBAR 19.1N 94.4W 19.1N 96.1W 19.1N 98.0W 19.3N 100.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 1200 050825 1200 050826 1200 050827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 99.8W 20.7N 103.3W 22.2N 107.6W 23.7N 111.9W
BAMM 20.3N 100.0W 21.3N 103.8W 22.6N 108.6W 24.1N 113.9W
A98E 20.8N 101.4W 23.0N 106.1W 25.8N 110.6W 27.8N 115.9W
LBAR 19.6N 102.2W 21.1N 107.4W 23.0N 112.5W 25.0N 117.2W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 94.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 92.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 91.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Updated 12:00z Model Guidance.
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#31 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:02 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:I just hope the NHC doesnt waste their time by only naming it a TD for several hours and nothing else. But given the fact that this thing just exploded so quickly who knows.

<RICKY>


They will name it if it warrants it, but I dont think it has anything to do with wasting time.
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#32 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:11 am

And believe or not 2005 is still ahead of 1933 at this date.


really, that is interesting :eek:
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#33 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:29 am

tailgater wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
Winds steady increasing

25.knot steady gusting to 31knots
Might go straight to T.S. status.
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#34 Postby TS Zack » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:08 am

That was quick!

Just goes to show you, it may be quiet today but tomorrow is a whole new ballgame.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#35 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:21 am

This system is by far better looking then Bret or Gert. Even put together!
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#36 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:30 am

Looking at visible loops shows that the center is near that blow up. You can see it the "bump" which is forming convection. The visible shows the twist right there. If that is what I think it is(Developing CDO). Then this could get rather interesting over the next 12 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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#37 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:34 am

It is looking very nice. I wonder why they are waiting so long for recon? It might be too late by then..... It could easily have TS winds right now.
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