Growing Concern With the Area E of the Bahamas

[EDR1222]

Definately all these areas need to be watched, especially now that we are close to the heart of the season.

[gatorcane]

I see a twist or some form of circulation trying to get going at about 27N 67W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[gatorcane]

Actually the center of some rotation is at about 64W 26N to the RIGHT of the convection. Definite twist and I can easily see this area developing in the next couple of days as it slowly moves WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually the center of some rotation is at about 64W 26N. Definite twist and I can easily see this area developing in the next couple of days as it slowly moves WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

True, it needs some watching. However, there is a lot of shear around the system. The shear is clearly indicated on the water vapor imagery. In order to develop it has to cope with the shear, and the degree to it develops depends on the shear strength and other factors.

[gatorcane]

Some members have informed me the shear is expected to gradually weaken over this area as the ridge builds into the Eastern U.S over the next couple of days...

[Jim Cantore]

this might become a Sub tropical storm but quite frankly I'd be suprised if it became anything

[storms in NC]

didn't hurricanetracker have a post some time back that there was going to be a hurricane around the first week of Sept going up the east coast?

[no advance]

I dont see nothing to worry about the western gulf is more likely.

[jasons2k]

What's going on in the NW Carib?

[Thunder44]

There's nothing to be concerned about here...yet.

[fci]

No more mention this morning; of a Low developing in either the Miami or Melbourne forecast discussions

[gatorcane]

Yes my concern has lessened substantially on the Bahamas system.

[boca]

Don't totally dismiss the area East of the Bahamas it looks very unsettled over there. I think something might pop there and because of the building high over the midwest and SE US we in Florida just need to keep a watchful eye on the area.

[gatorcane]

Actually looking at satellite pics, this area looks more impressive today than yesterday. There's a clear circulation forming and convection is starting to fire near it.

What is concerning is that it appears to be drifting SSW into warmer water and less shear AND a strong High is building in the Eastern US that will push it W eventually into FL.

I take it back...we will need to watch this closely over the next couple of days....

[x-y-no]

Actually looking at satellite pics, this area looks more impressive today than yesterday. There's a clear circulation forming and convection is starting to fire near it.

What is concerning is that it appears to be drifting SSW into warmer water and less shear AND a strong High is building in the Eastern US that will push it W eventually into FL.

I take it back...we will need to watch this closely over the next couple of days....

Where do you see a "clear circulation"? I don't see it at all.

Also, there's still 30+ knots of shear clear to Florida, 20+ knots well into the eastern Gulf.

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually looking at satellite pics, this area looks more impressive today than yesterday. There's a clear circulation forming and convection is starting to fire near it.

What is concerning is that it appears to be drifting SSW into warmer water and less shear AND a strong High is building in the Eastern US that will push it W eventually into FL.

I take it back...we will need to watch this closely over the next couple of days....

Where do you see a "clear circulation"? I don't see it at all.

Also, there's still 30+ knots of shear clear to Florida, 20+ knots well into the eastern Gulf.

i dont see a circulation at all either.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Checkout the water vapor loop. A definite twist, maybe just a broad circulation right now....about 66W 26N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[x-y-no]

Checkout the water vapor loop. A definite twist, maybe just a broad circulation right now....about 66W 26N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Mid-level, and not much of a "circulation". That's a tongue of the mid-level low to the east of that area.

[HURAKAN]

I really don't feel concerned, but ACCUWEATHER says, "don't throw the towel just yet:"

An upper trough of low pressure south of Bermuda and east of the Bahamas will build southwest toward the Bahamas and may interact with an elongated area of low pressure that will set up over south Florida or the Florida Straits this weekend. This interaction could lead to the development of an organized low pressure area later this weekend or early next week.

ACCUWEATHER

PS: The statement above comes from the morning discussion.

[LAwxrgal]

Well Chris I will give you the benefit of the doubt since you nailed Katrina's development in this area. Everything this time of year needs to be watched.