Season Slowly Dying.
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Anonymous
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ConvergenceZone
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SouthFloridawx
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AZS
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ConvergenceZone wrote:loon wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:~Floydbuster wrote:Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.
Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.
Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??
Well, I think one reason one would react such as Floydbuster did is due to the Fact we just had a pretty big storm and there is atleast an invest out there. Just like someone said, its been a whole week since we had a sub 900mb storm out there. Your only data you offer for starting a thread saying the season is dying was what appears to be a quick glance through some storm history data. Another "quick glance" was done by MWatkins that showed "historically" busy Sept. gets a busy Oct. However its all History. (However Climinatology sure nailed no Texas landfalls in Sept. heh).
To me this thread looked like someone just bored and posting a thread that would get a rise out of people. However it appears you are serious, which, given the season we've had so far, and recon flying in an invest right now, I have to wonder what, besides history would make you think that way.
Anywho, this thread should get exciting before it is inevitably locked for slander, so post on soldiers, post on!
cheers,
loon
All I said is that I think we will have a couple of more storms, but that's probably about it, but this is just an opinion, nothing more.. What's wrong with that?? Is that anymore different that someone saying that we will have 10 more storms this season without any evidence either?
That's what I don't understand.
DUHHHH!!
it is like saying the day has 24 hours, a year has 12 months.
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If we only had two more major storms for the remainder of this season, I would still consider that to be a very, very active stretch for the season, especially if they make landfall in the CONUS. I only hope this season is winding down. I am not holding my breath though.
Last edited by Mathias on Thu Sep 29, 2005 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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txwatcher91
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quandary wrote:Every few weeks there comes "the seasons in dying" post. Eventually, maybe in the middle of December, it'll be right.
I remember the first "season's over" posts... right after Gert. Then during/after Irene. Then just before Katrina. Then, during (!) Ophelia. Now, just after Rita...
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vbhoutex
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We are getting dangerously close to having a thread disappear "gentlemen". Stop the petty arguing and discuss what this was originally about. The snide remarks from both sides must stop now!!!
AS STAFF HAS STATED MANY MANY TIMES BEFORE KEEP THE PROBLEMS YOU MAY HAVE WITH OTHERS AND THEIR POSTS BEHIND THE SCENES BY PM OR EMAIL AND IF YOU CAN'T WORK OUT THE PROBLEM WITH THEM PERSONALLY PLEASE CONTACT A STAFF MEMBER-DO NOT DO IT ON THE OPEN BOARD!!!! If it continues suspensions will follow!
AS STAFF HAS STATED MANY MANY TIMES BEFORE KEEP THE PROBLEMS YOU MAY HAVE WITH OTHERS AND THEIR POSTS BEHIND THE SCENES BY PM OR EMAIL AND IF YOU CAN'T WORK OUT THE PROBLEM WITH THEM PERSONALLY PLEASE CONTACT A STAFF MEMBER-DO NOT DO IT ON THE OPEN BOARD!!!! If it continues suspensions will follow!
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GalvestonDuck
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WeatherEmperor
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wxmann_91
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I will comment on this but try not to flame.
The season is not over. 2004, 1997, and 2002 were all El Nino years, and look, an interesting correlation between quiet activity in the late season and that. On the other hand, 1998 was a La Nina year, and look what happened there - Mitch.
What I'm thinking is that we won't see a Mitch. However, a few marginal majors (Roxanne type) could still threaten the Carib. The closest possible analog to what the rest of this hurricane season might bring would be 1995, a marginal Nino year, where though the season quieted down after September, there were still the Opals and Roxannes.
Obviously we all would wish that hurricane season was over, but we cannot let down our guards just yet.
The season is not over. 2004, 1997, and 2002 were all El Nino years, and look, an interesting correlation between quiet activity in the late season and that. On the other hand, 1998 was a La Nina year, and look what happened there - Mitch.
What I'm thinking is that we won't see a Mitch. However, a few marginal majors (Roxanne type) could still threaten the Carib. The closest possible analog to what the rest of this hurricane season might bring would be 1995, a marginal Nino year, where though the season quieted down after September, there were still the Opals and Roxannes.
Obviously we all would wish that hurricane season was over, but we cannot let down our guards just yet.
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Terry
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I don't mind people commenting on whether or not they believe the season is coming to an end or for that matter, if they feel there are some more Cat5's waiting to develop.
What I do hate is the hyped titles of the threads. This one reminds me of JB in reverse.
Just tone down the titles of the threads and debate all you want in a polite and professional way and I'll read each post!
What I do hate is the hyped titles of the threads. This one reminds me of JB in reverse.
Just tone down the titles of the threads and debate all you want in a polite and professional way and I'll read each post!
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Coredesat
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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Eh. 2004 was largely a Cape Verde season. Every major headliner of a storm, barring Alex, was Cape Verde. That's why it had hardly any action in June, July, October, and November.
This year, all our storms have been close-in-forming. So draw your own conclusions. It basically depends on shear, which hasn't been much of a factor so far across the GOM and Caribbean.
This year, all our storms have been close-in-forming. So draw your own conclusions. It basically depends on shear, which hasn't been much of a factor so far across the GOM and Caribbean.
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