east coast safe, from fla north this season?
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Anonymous
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MGC
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True, there are many positive factors this season that makes many of you very bullish on a major landfall. Myself on the other hand view a major landfall as a relatively rare event. As such, I think the probability is small even though conditions appear favorable. I doubt the EC sees a Hugo or Donna type storm this year....MGC
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rainstorm
nice to see you mgc
MGC wrote:True, there are many positive factors this season that makes many of you very bullish on a major landfall. Myself on the other hand view a major landfall as a relatively rare event. As such, I think the probability is small even though conditions appear favorable. I doubt the EC sees a Hugo or Donna type storm this year....MGC
as far as the trough moving, if the east coast is to be threatened, the trough needs to move west over the apps, not futher east of florida.
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Very little chance Florida and/or the East Coast aren't at risk this year. And I disagree with few named storms in the Gulf, though I appreciate Independent WX's discovery of years when 6+ named storms were in the Gulf, the following years showed 0-3.
First of all, from the Outer Banks down to eastern Florida, there's actually an aiming mechanism with the Bermuda High as it takes dominance later in the summer. There's also a repetitive process in play to strengthen high pressure/ridges over the SW Atlantic Coast (watch what happens the next few days). With the cooler than average water (check out yestereday's OTIS 4.0 SST anomalies product) across the Atlantic
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/ ... nomaly.gif
between 10-20 north - then especially around 70w, the argument is for storms with origins in Africa not to get cranking until they are very far west climo wise. Obviously the further east a storm forms, generally the greater liklihood it's going to curve out to sea. If storms don't get cooking until 70 west, well I'd invite anyone to look at the a map of the tropics... And while you're looking at the OTIS model, I'll bet a few fish spinners deepen out in the Central Atlantic this year that just kind of hang around.
As for the Gulf, I'll bet no fewer than 4-5 named storms find their way into it. With the mean trof position anticipated to be between 90-110 W this year, the entire Gulf is open for business when the season gets cooking. The hits will be there assuming the Atlantic warms up a bit. If it continues to cool south of Hispanola and east of the Islands, there might be a less intensity overall than I predicted in my seasonal forecast. This would especially be true if there's a couple of early peak-season storms in the Gulf. If the Gulf cools sufficiently, and I don't see that as even 50/50, Central America and Mexico will take some extra hits.
Steve
First of all, from the Outer Banks down to eastern Florida, there's actually an aiming mechanism with the Bermuda High as it takes dominance later in the summer. There's also a repetitive process in play to strengthen high pressure/ridges over the SW Atlantic Coast (watch what happens the next few days). With the cooler than average water (check out yestereday's OTIS 4.0 SST anomalies product) across the Atlantic
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/ ... nomaly.gif
between 10-20 north - then especially around 70w, the argument is for storms with origins in Africa not to get cranking until they are very far west climo wise. Obviously the further east a storm forms, generally the greater liklihood it's going to curve out to sea. If storms don't get cooking until 70 west, well I'd invite anyone to look at the a map of the tropics... And while you're looking at the OTIS model, I'll bet a few fish spinners deepen out in the Central Atlantic this year that just kind of hang around.
As for the Gulf, I'll bet no fewer than 4-5 named storms find their way into it. With the mean trof position anticipated to be between 90-110 W this year, the entire Gulf is open for business when the season gets cooking. The hits will be there assuming the Atlantic warms up a bit. If it continues to cool south of Hispanola and east of the Islands, there might be a less intensity overall than I predicted in my seasonal forecast. This would especially be true if there's a couple of early peak-season storms in the Gulf. If the Gulf cools sufficiently, and I don't see that as even 50/50, Central America and Mexico will take some extra hits.
Steve
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Anonymous
I wouldn't worry about the east coast trough. As the El Nino's residual scars dissapear we'll see the Bermuda High (which has already been well established this season) shift further west. This increase the chance of one or more east coast hits this year.
As for the Gulf of Mexico, look at this bit of climatology.
Active GOM Years Followed by Slower GOM Years 1950-2002
Numbers represent named storms.
1909-1910: 6 and 3
1947-1948: 6 and 2
1959-1960: 6 and 3
1970-1971: 6 and 2
1995-1996: 6 and 2
1998-1999: 6 and 2
2002-2003: 6 and ???
The average number of storms following a year with 6 is 2.3. On average, there is 38% the level of Gulf activity in a season followed by an active Gulf year. (Remember, 2002 WAS an active Gulf year.)
As for the Gulf of Mexico, look at this bit of climatology.
Active GOM Years Followed by Slower GOM Years 1950-2002
Numbers represent named storms.
1909-1910: 6 and 3
1947-1948: 6 and 2
1959-1960: 6 and 3
1970-1971: 6 and 2
1995-1996: 6 and 2
1998-1999: 6 and 2
2002-2003: 6 and ???
The average number of storms following a year with 6 is 2.3. On average, there is 38% the level of Gulf activity in a season followed by an active Gulf year. (Remember, 2002 WAS an active Gulf year.)
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I totally disagree that this will be a safe year for the East Coast... actually, I'm thinking quite the opposite. Like TropicalWxWatcher and SC have been saying, all signals point to a very dangerous East Coast Hurricane year. Just because this pattern has been persistent for the first 2 or 3 weeks of the season doesn't mean it's going to remain persistent.
So, I agree that it's going to be a very dangerous East Coast Hurricane year. :o
So, I agree that it's going to be a very dangerous East Coast Hurricane year. :o
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