Wilma Likely Back to Cat 5 Status

[djtil]

930mb, 128kt max flight level......weak cat 4 at this time.

[skysummit]

It sure as heck looks alot better then it did earliler when it was going through that EWRC. With the clouded up eye. The eye is clear now. This season has been nothing but a surpize.

No joke. It looks its best right now, and it has weakened.

[jkt21787]

930 pressure. Further weakening. No cat 5. Its pretty solid now...

[Foladar0]

It sure as heck looks alot better then it did earliler when it was going through that EWRC. With the clouded up eye. The eye is clear now. This season has been nothing but a surpize.

The eye isn't closed. Looking at radar, looks like it's open to the south.

[MWatkins]

Yep...930...despite the improved appearance of the eye...but still a formidible hurricane.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RNT12.KNHC

Also...and this is probably the biggest piece of news here...

19.5N 86.0W

Still moving mostly north...

One thing to note...recon may not have found the highest winds yet...they could be in the eastern quad.

MW

[Foladar0]

Yep...930...despite the improved appearance of the eye...but still a formidible hurricane.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RNT12.KNHC

Also...and this is probably the biggest piece of news here...

19.5N 86.0W

Still moving mostly north.

MW

8PM was 19.1N 85.9W
so yeah, mostly north. Is that bad or good for S FLA?

[mtm4319]

Yep...930...despite the improved appearance of the eye...but still a formidible hurricane.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RNT12.KNHC

Also...and this is probably the biggest piece of news here...

19.5N 86.0W

Still moving mostly north.

MW

8PM was 19.1N 85.9W
so yeah, mostly north. Is that bad or good for S FLA?

If you want to be exact, it's at 19.433, 86.033.

Nothing extremely significant, but it's a little worse for south Florida because it might not spend that much time over land.

[kevin]

Sorry guys.

The northward motion bothers me, but we'll have to see if it continues to trend that way.

[curtadams]

Big clear eyes don't mean incredibly strong and overcast doesn't mean weak - just a tendency. Wilma is weakening because she doesn't have Cat 5 convection. Good structure can't overcome a lack of energy. Tuesday night she was NOAA grey everywhere; today she's a mix of red and orange. Big difference, and here's the proof.

[skysummit]

Big clear eyes don't mean incredibly strong and overcast doesn't mean weak - just a tendency. Wilma is weakening because she doesn't have Cat 5 convection. Good structure can't overcome a lack of energy. Tuesday night she was NOAA grey everywhere; today she's a mix of red and orange. Big difference, and here's the proof.

Hmm....don't know about that. Right now she has more convection than Katrina had when Kat was 160mph.

[bahamaswx]

I disagree. Western semi-circle is still pretty eroded. She needs a bit more time yet.

I still stand that with more time she'll begin to reintensify

Pressures should start falling again in a few hours (although I doubt they will dop much), provided land interaction and dry air isn't disrupting her as much as it looks like it might be....

[bahamaswx]

Big clear eyes don't mean incredibly strong and overcast doesn't mean weak - just a tendency. Wilma is weakening because she doesn't have Cat 5 convection. Good structure can't overcome a lack of energy. Tuesday night she was NOAA grey everywhere; today she's a mix of red and orange. Big difference, and here's the proof.

Hmm....don't know about that. Right now she has more convection than Katrina had when Kat was 160mph.

She has no less energy than a 'typical' cat5 hurricane. She simply had an insanely cold (and most impressive) CDO during her time as a cat5.

[skysummit]

Big clear eyes don't mean incredibly strong and overcast doesn't mean weak - just a tendency. Wilma is weakening because she doesn't have Cat 5 convection. Good structure can't overcome a lack of energy. Tuesday night she was NOAA grey everywhere; today she's a mix of red and orange. Big difference, and here's the proof.

Hmm....don't know about that. Right now she has more convection than Katrina had when Kat was 160mph.

She has no less energy than a 'typical' cat5 hurricane. She simply had an insanely cold (and most impressive) CDO during her time as a cat5.

That she did.....that CDO was amazing when she was a 5.

[MWatkins]

Before I go to bed...looks like the good old UKIE has the best handle on the synoptic environment for Wilma...good to see there is at least one model in agreement with the current motion. Hard to see Wilma getting trapped on the backside of the Gulf ridge like the GFS and GFDL are advertisting...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

[Foladar0]

Before I go to bed...looks like the good old UKIE has the best handle on the synoptic environment for Wilma...good to see there is at least one model in agreement with the current motion. Hard to see Wilma getting trapped on the backside of the Gulf ridge like the GFS and GFDL are advertisting...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

Assuming it's the same one on Wunderground, this would run it across the upper Keys and extreme southern Fla?

[Anonymous]

Quite frankly...Im not all that impressed even with satellite. The cloud tops are warmer than they should be, the hurricane has been shown now that it is somewhat small.

[dhweather]

Quite frankly...Im not all that impressed even with satellite. The cloud tops are warmer than they should be, the hurricane has been shown now that it is somewhat small.

I suspect the people in the Yucatan are "impressed".

Just because she's not as pretty on images comapred to the record setting
rapid intensification cycle, she will still produce catastrophic damage to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Water has built all night from the north into
Cozumel, and will only get wose as the western eyewall approaches.

Pray for these people, they will be devastated, much like here.
Unfortunately, Mexico does not have the resources that the US
does for aid and assistance.

[superfly]

Recon supports lower end cat 4 right now. Don't think she will get back to cat 5 with the land interaction now.

[CourierPR]

MW, our local NBC6 weather nimrod, Lonnie Quinn, just said that if Wilma stays over water and doesn't weaken over Cancun, it will miss S. FL. I find this incredible and irresponsible for him to make such a statement.

[clueless newbie]

My clueless newbie opinion re: why she isn't Cat5 again:

She has plenty enough convection, however, looking at the Cancun radar there are two distinct concentric eyewalls, the inner one at 30miles, and the outer one maybe 70! miles diameter (the outer one is closed ring on radar as well!). I think the outer eyewall is partially starving the inner one, and that prevents further intensification. The inner one is still pretty strong so don't expect eyewall replacement cycle any soon, it's just not as strong as it could have been had the outer organisation been different.

This is good news for Cancun/Cozumel, weak Cat 4 is better then strong Cat 5, but they are stilll in for long and rough ride...