Update of 2004+2005 map?

[JonathanBelles]

is that really a wierd spot? i thought it was somewhat common as is iceland

[wxmann_91]

is that really a wierd spot? i thought it was somewhat common as is iceland

I was just joking. It is nearly impossible to get a hurricane into Greenland, or Iceland for that matter.

[JonathanBelles]

why?

[Astro_man92]

because the SST's are to low, usually durring the hurricane season if a hurricane/TS goes near that far north they either turn extra tropical or get rupped apart by massive amounts of shear. I don't think even the strongest and luckiest of hurricanes could survive that far north. I think of it as, that region is to hurricanes, what the middle of antartica with no suppyies and protection is to us. please correct me if i'm wrong

Oh and by the way how did you make that map calamity?

[JonathanBelles]

map calamity?

[johngaltfla]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

[Astro_man92]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

[mike815]

lol i was like huh too

[Extremeweatherguy]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

[Extremeweatherguy]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well I wasn't high, my previous response was a joke,
but I was just trying to apply
statistical inference to hurricane landfalls. I am passionate about
research in this area.

[wxmann_91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

That some great math skills you've got there Tampa Bay Hurricane. Great post.

On the other hand, these nested quotes are really cool.

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

[StormScanWx]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.