Northeast Hurricane expected ????

[Derecho]

Wow, is it just me, or did they forget (leave out) Gloria AND Bob and add a bunch of TSs, cat 1s, and cat 2s and call them major storms on their "hurricane coupling" chart?

Wow...on closer examination that chart is misleading and inaccurate even by AccuWeather standards. Good lord, who does this stuff for them? At some point don't they feel any embarassment over this?

Beyond calling an assortment of Tropical storms "major hits" they completely ommitted the 92-94 Nino period....

They moved the 94-95 Nino to 95-96...in fact, they shifted the 1997 Nino as well to 1998-1999 to make it line up neatly with their claims.


Once again, you're left with the eternal question about them..

Was that chart simply the result of incompetence, or deliberate deception?

[AussieMark]

Wow, is it just me, or did they forget (leave out) Gloria AND Bob and add a bunch of TSs, cat 1s, and cat 2s and call them major storms on their "hurricane coupling" chart? That report is pseudoscience and nothing else. No wonder not-so-Accuweather is made up of a bunch of crappy meteorologists hanging on to their careers by the hairs of their chinny-chin chins.

when he says Gulf Coast is he including Mexico? if thats the case he has missed a lot of Mexican hurricane strikes yet hurricane like Gilber and Emily are included.

and your right that he has a lot of storms listed as majors that were not majors

i.e

Diana 1984 (Category 1)
Florence 1988 (Category 1)
Allison 1995 (Tropical Storm)
Erin 1995 (Category 1)
Bertha 1996 (Category 2)
Earl 1998 (Category 1)
Georges 1998 (Category 2)
Dennis 1999 (tropical Storm)
Floyd 1999 (Category 2)
Isidore 2002 (tropical storm)
Lili 2002 (Category 1)
Isabel 2003 (Category 2)


and he is not even consistent some storms he has

i.e in 1998 Bonnie hit North Carolina
2003 Claudette hit Texas
in 1989 Chantal and Jerry hit Texas

my theory is these were omitted as they did not agree with the stats he wanted to publish

[Steve]

Hey Derecho,

I'm not disagreeing with you. I think they did well in their landfall intensity forecasts, not the landfalls themselves. And what no one seemed to remember on this thread so far was Ken Reeves, Bernie Rayno and Bastardi all basically saying that after Wilma hooked off through FL, she was basically closing the door on the 2005 season. Rayno, specifically, said "remember, you heard it here first." That was on Fox News one night. Heh. Well I remembered and I also know that the season didn't end there either. LMAO

Steve

[Lindaloo]

Eventually he will get one right for the Northeast. lol.

[wxmann_91]

JB's very good at pattern recognition and observation of teleconnective indices. But since Accuwx is paying him, he is forced to hype threats to attract viewers, he is pretty much the reason why Accuwx is still alive today.

[Derecho]

JB's very good at pattern recognition and observation of teleconnective indices.

Ummm...he CLAIMS to be good at "pattern recognition" and he babbles a lot about teleconnections.

I fail to comprehend how that makes him GOOD at either or how either helps him forecast anything.

I can't see where he has any skill at any forecasting of any weather phenomena.

It's basically:

1) Continuous forecasting of cold every winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

2) Continuous forecasting of snow every winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

3) Continuous forecasting of tropical development in every climatologically-favorable area of the North Atlantic from June through October

4) Continous forecasting of big tropical hits on the East Coast and New England every year.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It takes a very rare pattern for a hurricane, little own a major one, to make landfall in the North East. Heck even Nova Scotia (which is more prone then we in areas further to West and North), went 19 years between hurricane landfalls (Evelyn in 1977 and Hortense in 1996) and 40 years between cat 2 landfalls (Ginny in 1963 and Juan in 2003). None of these of course were major storms.

Problem is you need a TC to be wedged in just the right position in the SW flow between a deep trough and a strong Bermuda High. To far to the East and it curves out to sea, to far to the South and it pretty much is missing the flow and continues West into say Florida.

Recent studies have demonstrated that the difference is usually last than 5 Degrees separation from the Trough Axis one way of the other, that makes the difference between the storm of the Century and Jogging Weather in New England.

[seaswing]

I watched it on Good Morning America this morning. I don't know about ya'll but where I come from, every year is something to watch when it comes to hurricanes. All my life we have anticipated June through November. It seems that since the '04 hurricanes in Florida, the hype has gotten worse. Much more since Katrina. The fact is that the ocean temps are on the rise, which is like an oven for storms. They are big-er and bad-er. The fact is that from Florida to Maine is overdue for a horrendous hurricane. But when I heard that Accuweather said that it might not be out of the realm of 150ft storm surge, I had to shake my head....what are they trying to do? cause mass panic?

Enjoy the quiet month folks, we are actually getting some good rain today! the azaleas bloomed, the hummingbirds are back, Florida is beautiful right now!

Summer....well, you can bet that it will be hotter than hates and it will probably rain just about everday for at least 10 minutes. Hurricane season will come and we all need to prepare, be vigilant and listen to the experts, we either hunker down or when/if they tell you to leave, then get the hell out!!!

[terstorm1012]

maybe this is the accuweather version of the PBS Pledge drive


(above was a joke, not a bash)

JB is fairly decent on the teleconnections. I will give him that.

(I'm still not going to pay for his column though...not falling for THAT again! )

[SouthFloridawx]

Accuweather said that it might not be out of the realm of 150ft storm surge

geez why say 150 ft storm surge ?

[jasons2k]

He missed on some of us landfall intensity by state, but he did fairly well overall. Steve

THIS is "fairly well overall?" (from 2005)

Private forecaster eyes Carolinas
NOAA officials said they could not predict how many of the storms would hit the U.S. coast. The season typically peaks in August.
However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.
"The most action will be from Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I'm targeting the Carolinas for the worst," Bastardi said. "Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast."

Of course, when the Carolinas FINALLY got hit by Ophelia, AccuWeather and Bastardi couldn't help themselves from hyping another storm into the Gulf and failed to call that one, in a rather delcious irony.

That's a bit unfair IMO. MANY sources, including a lot of respected posters here on S2K, at mid-season last year expected more east coast threats but it just never materialized. You've cherry-picked a quote to make it look like AccuWx was some lone crazy last year making this prediction and that just wasn't the case. Let's not re-write history just to prove a point please.

[seaswing]

I think Accuweather just wanted to be the first to say that hurricanes are possible this summer. LOL

[southerngale]

Of course the part about Texas made the front page of the Houston Chronicle today!

The Beaumont Enterprise too. Let's just pray they're wrong.
http://www.southeasttexaslive.com/site/ ... 2588&rfi=8

Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years. "Hurricane Rita was a warning shot," says AccuWeather.com's Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September. "The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border."

[HurricaneHunter914]

Are they the people who use the LBAR forecast model?

[Weatherfreak14]

accuweather did really bad in most of there preditions last year!so any information coming out of them to me cant really be cant be taken to seriously...statements like these should not be put out because all there doing is alarming people!every person has there own opinion on what 06 might bring!we are still 4-6 months from the heart of the hurricane season no one knows what is going to happen.

They are bad at really any prediction IMO.

[terstorm1012]

where did the 150 foot storm surge reference come from? Need to know for informational purposes (I'm writing a letter.)

[Weatherfreak14]

150ft storm surge. Is that possible. The highest was near 40ft last year wasent it?

[SouthFloridawx]

Are they the people who use the LBAR forecast model?

LOL

[Camille_2_Katrina]

Are they the people who use the LBAR forecast model?

LBAR projected Kitrina 4-5 days out when ALL the
other models were going into the BigBend area...

[Gtmalacd]

I don't undertand why so many of you bash accuweather and Mr. Bastardi. They have a multitude of tools to make a professional observation or prediction. I highly doubt many of you can work as well as they can. I say many liberally because I know there are some excellent analysts on this board.