After Katrina.. what Gulf or Atlantic city do..

[skysummit]

Hmm...also remember though, New Orleans has not experienced a Cat 4 yet. Not even with Katrina and look what she did. I can't imagine what a Cat 4 or 5 would do to NO with a direct hit...not to mention all the surrounding areas. There would be no more south Louisiana, literally. Being below sea level is everything. I dont' think a Cat 2 in NYC would come close to a Cat 4 in NO, but a Cat 4 in NYC, IMO, would be worse than in NO.

[Stephanie]

going out on a limb I would say the New Jersey Coastline

maybe I am wrong tho

It would be ugly - there is over 50,000 employees working in the Atlantic City casinos alone. There's not that much beach between the casinos that are shore side. Borgata, Harrah's and Trump Marina are bayside. "The Shore" as we call it, is packed with summer homes and permanent residents.

[Audrey2Katrina]

think you meant NYC not NO on the population, right? The Tampa-St. Pete MSA dwarfs NOLA Metro - by a few million.

I'm fairly certain he meant NYC which would truly "dwarf" any other metro area inasmuch as you're looking at something akin to 22 million folks all said. On the other hand, while Tampa-St. Pete is, according to 2000 census about 900,000 to 1 mil more than GNO, it is certainly not a "few" million. Tampa St. Pete MSA: 2.3 mil. New Orleans MSA: 1.4 mil ... doesn't really matter, but just for clarification purposes. Additionally, NYC is by far the greatest potential for both death and damage, if that is the criterion; IF, on the other hand it were which is more LIKELY, I'd have to go with Galveston-Bay area which includes a LOT of the Houston Metro area which would "dwarf" Tampa St. Pete... albeit a LOT of Houston would lay well outside the surge/flood prone areas... I'm not as sure about Tampa St. Pete's SLOSH maps, but just on the potential for damages alone a storm that would maintain that highest possible intensity heading toward Houston through Galveston Bay, IMO would be a worse case (and based on past hits--more likely) than one hitting the Tampa area--although NEITHER is one anyone in their right mind would want to see. Certainly I do not!

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

The entire Jersey shore, populated Barrier islands, Cape may would go under in a cat 1.

[Audrey2Katrina]

*Update.... according to US Census Bureau estimates effective July 2004, the gap has widened... but it's still not a few million (working on it though ) Tampa St. Pete: 2.58 mil, GNO, 1.31 mil. And given the huge drop since Katrina I doubt the N.O. metro pop is much over a million right now. Again.. just for the record. Incidentally, Houston's is estimated at nearly 5.2 million... according to what data I've read they've "narrowed" the MSA descriptions somewhat, so NYC is "down" to about 18.7 million. Scary to think of areas that large subjected to a real hard blow from nature's fury.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

one must remember what I wrote

A CAT 1 obliterated Hog Island itself. It no longer exists. The surge from that cat 1 was well over 15 feet.

A cat 2 will produce a surge well over 20 feet, in a very populated area, making it far worse than a cat 4 at New Orleans, pre Katrina (and remember, one cannot perform a vertical evacuation due to the much higher winds aloft). A cat 2 in NYC may be the deadliest day in US History since Antitem

[Audrey2Katrina]

For whatever it's worth, one might justifiably argue that the Galveston Storm (from 6,000-12,000) was the deadliest day in US History. Casualties from Antietam (aka Sharpsburg) run as high as 23,000 but this includes deaths, wounded and missing. Most official records show about 2,500 Confederate dead, and around 2,100 on the Union side. Estimates run to as much as an additional 2-3,000 died later from wounds inflicted. Not trying to be nit-picky b/c I agree with your premise; but having taught US History before moving to science, Civil War history has been a fascinating topic of inquiry for me.

[MGC]

Norfolk, Va......MGC

[windycity]

I vote for NYC, hands down. Scary to think what the city would look like afterwards.

[MGC]

It will depend on the size of the hurricane that hits NYC for such a large surge to occur. A small Cat-2 won't do it. The hurricane will have to possess a very large circulation to cause such a considerable surge. These size hurricanes are rare occurances in the NYC area........MGC

[Derek Ortt]

almost all storms are much larger than Katrina at those latitudes, since they are becoming spread out as they take on ET characteristics

[Ivanhater]

For whatever it's worth, one might justifiably argue that the Galveston Storm (from 6,000-12,000) was the deadliest day in US History. Casualties from Antietam (aka Sharpsburg) run as high as 23,000 but this includes deaths, wounded and missing. Most official records show about 2,500 Confederate dead, and around 2,100 on the Union side. Estimates run to as much as an additional 2-3,000 died later from wounds inflicted. Not trying to be nit-picky b/c I agree with your premise; but having taught US History before moving to science, Civil War history has been a fascinating topic of inquiry for me.

lol, im staying up tonight studying for my final in history and Antietam is on it!, ironic

[zlaxier]

Would the storm surge in NYC really be that bad? I thought fast moving systems don't have much time to really push surge in, and any Cat 3 into NY would be travelling at 50+mph compared to the normal hurricane travelling 10-20mph, it'll be in and out very quickly.

[Derek Ortt]

the surge will be that bad for NYC, and it will come in more as a wall of water due to the fast motion and rapid wind increases, than the normal water level rises

[GalvestonDuck]

Vulnerable, in terms of what? Destruction? Death? Actually getting hit?

[Air Force Met]

you now believe is the most vulnerable to a major hurricane strike..

These would be the cities I'd think of..

Tampa Bay area
Miami
Galveston
NY City and coast

Let me address Galveston here:

You really need to include all of the surrounding area...not just Galveston. There are only 60K or so on the island but millions in the area...and the most vulnerable areas for surge are where the refineries are located.

Galveston, as Derek pointed out, is not really vulnerable to surge, but surge comes into play further north...at the north end of Galveston Bay. A NNW moving Cat 5...at 15 MPH...sends 38 feet of surge up into the Liberty county area near Liberty and Wallisville. A Cat 4 sends 33' up into that area and a Cat 3 sends 23' into it. This assumes a landfall out on the west end of Galveston Island or somewhere in the middle of it...depending on size of the eye...etc.

A surge model that was run on a storm by the name of "Gene" had it coming inland near San Louis Pass, moving north at 15 or so at a Cat 4/5. The surge was as follows:
Liberty County: 36'
West end GLS: 15'
Boliver: 17'
Up to 32' into N/Cntl Chambers county
Texas City: 16'
Sea Brook: 19'
Anahuac: 30'
La Porte: 23'
Kemah: 22'
Nassau Bay: 24'
League City: 20'
Hitchcock: 19'
Santa Fe: 22'
Dickinson: 22'
Hwy 146 Bridge (Hartman) 33'
Galena Park: 30'
Baytown: 25'
San Jacinto Park: 30'

That's Gene for you...and that's where the real Damage comes in.

[jasons2k]

A few points about NYC.

Most of NYC isn't at sea-level, so the surge may not be as widespread as some may imagine.

Yes, it's right on the coast, but the elevation changes rather quickly. It's almost right on the fall line. The Hudson is lined with granite bluffs. Much of Central Park (and Manhattan) was 'flattened' prior to building to make navigating the steep slopes easier on foot.

Even Staten Island is pretty hilly. When you get off the ferry you have to walk up quite a ways to get to "ground level".

[CrazyC83]

Another thing to remember: a large hurricane hitting the NYC area will also do considerable damage across the ENTIRE Northeast corridor, and likely (depending on angle of approach) major damage from the NC Outer Banks all the way to Maine.

[Scorpion]

What about a Cat 3 for NYC? Granted thats quite unlikely, but still, I wonder how much worse it would be than a 2.

[Derek Ortt]

A NYC surge will be far worse than anyone can expect (though not sure why some here dont believe it will dwarf anything we have seen, even after explaining what a cat 1 did in 1893)