NOAA'S May Outlook=13-16 named storms,8-10 canes,4-6 majors

[CHRISTY]

These numbers are quite high if u think about...

[skysummit]

SSTs are nowhere near as warm as last year, so people need to understand that last year was an extremely anomalous year. I really didn't expect any higher numbers based on this fact, plus the neutral conditions that have become established in the Pacific versus the earlier La Nina pattern. The intensity of the storms is what matters the most than the total number.

Up to 6 major hurricanes is high enough...

Yea, the Atlantic is a tad cooler than last year, but it's catching up nicely. The Gulf and Carribean, however, is a tad warmer....and it all depends on where that darn loop current is when storms enter the gulf....will we see a few "kabooms" this year? I hope not.

[cycloneye]

I was expecting this kind of outlook based on what has been going on in recent weeks in terms of some of the factors.But folks it only takes one to do all the damage so be prepared.The numbers are not so important but the landfalls are.It can be a season with 15 named storms but if all go out to sea it would be a below average season for many.By the way the outlook is posted at the first post of thread.

[Evil Jeremy]

looking at the graphic, it doesnt look like Florida might get somthing this ear! what do you guys think?

[SouthFloridawx]

looking at the graphic, it doesnt look like Florida might get somthing this ear! what do you guys think?

That graphic was not meant to show what areas are going to be hit. The graphic was just highlighting the Atlantic Basin in Red.

[Evil Jeremy]

ok. does that mean that Florida is still doomed?

[cycloneye]

That number of 4-6 majors is quite high from them being as conservative as they are.

[mtm4319]

Another way to think about it is that they are predicting 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors fewer than last year -- i.e., that 2006 will have a whole normal season's worth of activity less than 2005.

[SouthFloridawx]

That number of 4-6 majors is quite high from them being as conservative as they are.

Yes I think the same thing Luis. Didn't they lower the total number of storms.

[CHRISTY]

Here's the link of the complete information on NOAA'S update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

[jasons2k]

I think NOAA did a fine job with this outlook. 2005 aside, the numbers are well above average & they clearly state it may be yet another hyperactive season.

[Evil Jeremy]

Another way to think about it is that they are predicting 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors fewer than last year -- i.e., that 2006 will have a whole normal season's worth of activity less than 2005.

yea, but just as they raised the Forecast in August, I feel that they will do the same this year!.

[CHRISTY]

Another way to think about it is that they are predicting 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors fewer than last year -- i.e., that 2006 will have a whole normal season's worth of activity less than 2005.

yea, but just as they raised the Forecast in August, I feel that they will do the same this year!.

I agree!

[Hyperstorm]

Another way to think about it is that they are predicting 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors fewer than last year -- i.e., that 2006 will have a whole normal season's worth of activity less than 2005.

yea, but just as they raised the Forecast in August, I feel that they will do the same this year!.

Based on what? Last year had near-record to record breaking SSTs. Tell me where are we seeing the same this year? Gulf SSTs have cooled since the last frontal passage and the Caribbean is always a hot spot. Last year, due to the extreme SSTs, which created lower surface pressures we saw more activity in the west side of the Atlantic Basin.

This year should resemble 2003-2004 in terms of numbers...

[mike815]

its not all about the water temps geez im getting sick of hearing it there still overall warmer shear is extremly light thats critical waters will warm further during the summer im thinking that it will be on the high end around 20 storms and im not trying to be mean its just water temps isnt what is critical to an active season and it changes all the time

[wxman57]

Very nervous that they have predicted more storms compared to the same time last year...and look what happened last year. Maybe this season won't end until March '07.

Remember that last year there was all the talk about big bad "El Nino" rearing its ugly head. I think that talk prevented Dr. Gray and others from going higher pre-season.

[mike815]

yeah i remember that

[skysummit]

Very nervous that they have predicted more storms compared to the same time last year...and look what happened last year. Maybe this season won't end until March '07.

Remember that last year there was all the talk about big bad "El Nino" rearing its ugly head. I think that talk prevented Dr. Gray and others from going higher pre-season.

True, I remember that now that you mention it.

[wxman57]

I believe those are low estimates. My estimate is 18 to 21 named storms, 11 to 13 hurricanes and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.

As an aside and no negativity meant. I do believe that if you would have predicted that prior to the 2005 season people would be calling you crazy for such high numbers. As we can see by the forecast numbers poll, most people are picking high numbers.

Yet even those numbers are quite a bit lower than some predictions...the highest is 30 named storms, 18 hurricanes and 11 major hurricanes (which is the normal number of named storms).

The 2005 season numbers are probably a 1 in 200 year event. The number of seassons with even 17 or 18 named storms in the past 100 years is very small. Odds are we won't see as many named storms as Dr. Gray is predicting. I think he's erring non the high side now.

It's surprising that so many people (at S2K) are predicting such high numbers (20 or more). Chances of a repeat of 2005 are extremely remote. As the Bermuda High gets stronger in the coming decade, I would expect the average number of named storms to decline, probably closer to 12-13 per year (allowing for the naming of 1-2 semi-tropical storms each year).

[cycloneye]

To compare with May 2005 NOAA outlook vs 2006 below is the 2005 May outlook.which they had between 12-15 vs 13-16 in 2006.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... icane.html