94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very latest post from JB JUST IN, here are the main points:

-He said "At least the opening line (of his post) isn't, Houston, we have a problem, yet."

He said here are a few questions for people to answer:

-If conditions in the Gulf are not favorable, then how come the T-storm complex is growing?

-Why do we not have Recon flying into this right now (or at least ready to do so)?

-How can someone (I think he is referring to the NHC) already make a judgment about this system that could potential develop in the backyard of one of the most populated states (TX) over the busy holiday season.

He also went on to give his official "call" on the system. Below are the main points of what he expects:

-Heavy rains are coming to TX.
-If a LLC develops, TS conditions will QUICKLY develop to the east of the center as a ridge builds into the northern Gulf.
-The worst case scenario is for this to have occurred by tomorrow morning and for a landfall on Sunday or Monday. He said this scenario would be a "nightmare", influencing many people and businesses.
-He is very concerned about this. This is no Bret from 2005 (not going to Mexico).
-The TX Gulf coast should pay careful attention to this.

BASICALLY: If a LLC develops then this means bad news for Texas, and if one does not develop it means heavy rain for Texas. Either way, Texas will be impacted.

[tailgater]

Pressures are dropping slightly over the last 24hrs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
The winds are a little puzzling though, wave dir. is E.

[skysummit]

....and The Oscar goes to.....LOL j/j

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mid-level swirl (at least for now) is becoming more visible on Satellite loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Opal storm]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

[Opal storm]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

I just think the NHC bashing was uncalled for.There's no reason for recon to go out in that mess right now,chances are they'll find nothing.

[skysummit]

Ok, say if something does form....you do know that if it stays weak (minimal tropical storm), it should head North or NNW, however, anything stronger (strong tropical storm) would likely take more of a North course, and if it some kind of way can pull a hurricane out of it's you know what, it may be even a NNE to Northeast course once it gains latitude.

[ROCK]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

I agree EWG...we need to watch this for at least the chance of heavy rain. I remember the 8 inches I got a week and half ago.

[Extremeweatherguy]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

I just think the NHC bashing was uncalled for.There's no reason for recon to go out in that mess right now,chances are they'll find nothing.

He wasn't really bashing them. He is just wondering why they wouldn't be paying more attention to a system that is so close to one of America's most populated states (and expected to drift toward it).

[Extremeweatherguy]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

I agree EWG...we need to watch this for at least the chance of heavy rain. I remember the 8 inches I got a week and half ago.

yeah, another repeat of that in the same area would not be good.

[Opal storm]

Ok, say if something does form....you do know that if it stays weak (minimal tropical storm), it should head North or NNW, however, anything stronger (strong tropical storm) would likely take more of a North course, and if it some kind of way can pull a hurricane out of it's you know what, it may be even a NNE to Northeast course once it gains latitude.

What would pull it NE?I thought the flow would be north to TX despite how strong it becomes.

[southerngale]

OMG,that's classic JB at his best right there. I think I'll take my chances and go with the NHC on this one.

Ok, and i'll go with JB and we can see who does better at the end of it all.

Remember, all he is predicting right now is heavy rains for TX (and development IF a LLC forms). So pretty much even the NHC and NWS can agree with him right now in the fact that heavy rains are coming to Texas (at least).

I just think the NHC bashing was uncalled for.There's no reason for recon to go out in that mess right now,chances are they'll find nothing.

Well, I wouldn't call that bashing. He said, "Why do we not have Recon flying into this right now?"
I don't know if we need recon, but that's still not bashing...that's questioning them.

We don't allow bashing of the NHC on here, or bashing of Accuweather and Joe Bastardi for that matter.

[HouTXmetro]

I kinda agree with JB somewhat about being cautious and the Holiday weekend. Anytime you have something like 94L sitting out over the water in the summer there is the potential for these systems to blowup overnight. Conditions can rapidly change. If something were to develope and head towards TX many people would be caught with their pants down.

Just today I asked my boss what were his weekend and Holiday plans and he said he was going fishing in Matagorda Bay. I explained that he should pay carefully attention to weather because of the threat posed by 94L. I think it's even worse the news is not even mentioning the possibilty, no matter how slim they are. He had no clue.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I kinda agree with JB somewhat about be cautious and the Holiday weekend. Anytime you have something like 94L sitting out over the water in the summer there is the potential for these systems to blowup overnight. Conditions can rapidly change. If something were to develope and head towards TX many people would be caught with their pants down.

Just today I asked my boss what were his weekend and Holiday plans and he said he was going fishing in Matagorda Bay. I explained that he should pay carefully attention to weather because of the threat posed by 94L. I think it's even worse the news is not even mentioning the possibilty, no matter how slim they are. He had no clue.

I agree, because at the very least we are going to be getting a lot of rain out of this system. I am surprised by the news this time. Usually they freak out about every little swirl or spin, but this time they are barely mentioning it. One thing to think about is that when they usually freak out...nothing develops; so may be this time since they are not...something will.

[skysummit]

Ok, say if something does form....you do know that if it stays weak (minimal tropical storm), it should head North or NNW, however, anything stronger (strong tropical storm) would likely take more of a North course, and if it some kind of way can pull a hurricane out of it's you know what, it may be even a NNE to Northeast course once it gains latitude.

What would pull it NE?I thought the flow would be north to TX despite how strong it becomes.

Nope...it would be steered by a different layer of the atmosphere. If it were a strong tropical storm, or hurricane, the original motion would be north, yes, however, a turn to the NNE and/or NE would take place toward the northern gulf. Now, these steering currents will change from day to day, however, they should remain almost the same with the ridge building from the east.

Weak Tropical Storm:


Moderate to Strong Tropical Storm:


Possible Hurricane???:

[ROCK]

I kinda agree with JB somewhat about being cautious and the Holiday weekend. Anytime you have something like 94L sitting out over the water in the summer there is the potential for these systems to blowup overnight. Conditions can rapidly change. If something were to develope and head towards TX many people would be caught with their pants down.

Just today I asked my boss what were his weekend and Holiday plans and he said he was going fishing in Matagorda Bay. I explained that he should pay carefully attention to weather because of the threat posed by 94L. I think it's even worse the news is not even mentioning the possibilty, no matter how slim they are. He had no clue.

I can't agree with you more. The people are on holiday only think we have a 50% chance of rain the next couple of days. That is what the news tells them. Just goes to show that people should register with S2K to get there weather info.....

[Johnny]

Yep, all my fishing buds are heading to the coast to fish over the weekend down near Corpus Christi. I kind of rained on their parade (literally) when I told them to bring their rain gear along for the ride. LOL!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, say if something does form....you do know that if it stays weak (minimal tropical storm), it should head North or NNW, however, anything stronger (strong tropical storm) would likely take more of a North course, and if it some kind of way can pull a hurricane out of it's you know what, it may be even a NNE to Northeast course once it gains latitude.

What would pull it NE?I thought the flow would be north to TX despite how strong it becomes.

Nope...it would be steered by a different layer of the atmosphere. If it were a strong tropical storm, or hurricane, the original motion would be north, yes, however, a turn to the NNE and/or NE would take place toward the northern gulf. Now, these steering currents will change from day to day, however, they should remain almost the same with the ridge building from the east.

Weak Tropical Storm:


Moderate to Strong Tropical Storm:


Possible Hurricane???:

My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thing looks good on Satellite right now: