CrazyC83's Ernesto Forecast (5th forecast issued)

[Cyclenall]

Nothing personal man, but that was pretty weak. Don't quit your day job

That was the first thing that came into my head when I read Bailey1777's post. I'm sure a lot of things that first pop into our heads are "weak".

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664 REMINDER

[Regit]

Thanks, Rainband.

I think if you're going to say that someone's forecast is stupid, you need to be able to back it up with facts other than just "Cat 5's are rare." The fact that 2005 was a rare season has NOTHING to do with a specific storm's ability to get to Cat 5. Statistics are good at predicting future events, but are of little use when an event is in progress. Once the event is happening, you need to look at current conditions.

Maybe someone sees perfect conditions and boiling water and thinks that a storm entering that area has a shot at becoming at Cat 5. That's better reasoning than "they're rare."

If a storm enters an area of perfect conditions, I don't think it really cares how rare Cat 5's are.

As I've said before, there is a forum on Storm2k to hear forecasts from professionals. This isn't it.


As for the original forecast, I personally think it's too early to tell. We'll need to wait a little while to see just what the conditions are in the atmosphere when the storm gets there, assuming it has survived (which I think it will). That being said, if atmospheric condtions are good, there is no reason we couldn't see a Cat 5.

There are still some unknowns that need to be figured out first. Get back to me on Sunday.

[CrazyC83]

Yep I agree with that, it just needs to get to that pool of water in a low-shear environment.

But if it does, I don't see why it can't go into explosive intensification...that is where the big jump will be I think.

[mempho]

I'm with Regit...don't call someone's forecast stupid. Instead, politely disagree with them and point out the reasons that you disagree. Objectively, we need to look at the factors that go into making a monster:

1) High Heat Content (The OP pointed out that the heat content was high...and, looking at the maps, the heat content is not an inhibiting factor.

2) Low Shear (The OP stated that there was not going to be much shear ahead of "Ernesto"...is this what makes you dispute Cat 5 status)

3) Moisture-laden air (This may be the biggest obstacle in this storm going Cat 5)

4) Lack of land interaction (The forecast track avoids land..but the Yuc and Cuba are within the cone)

5) Ventilation


If a storm is in conditions of low shear, moist air, high heat content, over open water, and the storm has good ventilation then that storm will become a Cat 5 given time. It's science...I saw one pro met last year that predicted Katrina to go Cat 5 while she was still at about 80kts. This person forecasted a 170 peak because they were not afraid to make the call when they saw perfect conditions.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Yes, this backs up the previous forecast. I think an Ivan-like path is in order, and it will wrap back around in the Gulf, with ample opportunity for explosive development. It won't come immediately, but in the next 48 hours Ernesto will become formidable, and by 72 hours, increasingly an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Now is a good time to have your hurricane preparation in order anyway in the Gulf basin, from Florida to Mexico and Cuba.

Current - 14.8/69.1 - 1003mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 15.4/71.2 - 997mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 16.2/73.5 - 990mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 17.0/75.5 - 982mb - 80mph
48 hrs - 17.9/77.8 - 974mb - 90mph - Near Jamaica
60 hrs - 18.7/79.9 - 958mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 20.0/82.2 - 932mb - 150mph
96 hrs - 22.8/85.7 - 906mb - 175mph
120 hrs - 27.7/86.8 - 914mb - 155mph

[CrazyC83]

Here it is in graphics - AGAIN, NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

[Noles2006]

No thank you, Crazy.

[Brent]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Yes, this backs up the previous forecast. I think an Ivan-like path is in order, and it will wrap back around in the Gulf, with ample opportunity for explosive development. It won't come immediately, but in the next 48 hours Ernesto will become formidable, and by 72 hours, increasingly an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Now is a good time to have your hurricane preparation in order anyway in the Gulf basin, from Florida to Mexico and Cuba.

Current - 14.8/69.1 - 1003mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 15.4/71.2 - 997mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 16.2/73.5 - 990mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 17.0/75.5 - 982mb - 80mph
48 hrs - 17.9/77.8 - 974mb - 90mph - Near Jamaica
60 hrs - 18.7/79.9 - 958mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 20.0/82.2 - 932mb - 150mph
96 hrs - 22.8/85.7 - 906mb - 175mph
120 hrs - 27.7/86.8 - 914mb - 155mph

Gee thanks.

!!!

[mtm4319]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Yes, this backs up the previous forecast. I think an Ivan-like path is in order, and it will wrap back around in the Gulf, with ample opportunity for explosive development. It won't come immediately, but in the next 48 hours Ernesto will become formidable, and by 72 hours, increasingly an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Now is a good time to have your hurricane preparation in order anyway in the Gulf basin, from Florida to Mexico and Cuba.

Current - 14.8/69.1 - 1003mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 15.4/71.2 - 997mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 16.2/73.5 - 990mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 17.0/75.5 - 982mb - 80mph
48 hrs - 17.9/77.8 - 974mb - 90mph - Near Jamaica
60 hrs - 18.7/79.9 - 958mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 20.0/82.2 - 932mb - 150mph
96 hrs - 22.8/85.7 - 906mb - 175mph
120 hrs - 27.7/86.8 - 914mb - 155mph

5 degrees north movement looked like a lot in 24 hours (between 96 and 120), but that's actually about 15mph.

Edit: Wow, I should refresh. You posted the graph almost 20 minutes ago.

[Beam]

I still say you need to chill with the cat 5 stuff man. Cat 3 is crtainly plauisble, MAYBE cat 4, assuming it doesn't dissipate in the caribbean (which seems less likely than earlier). I think you might be letting the absurd anomaly that was 2005 go to your head a little. One category 5 in a year is out of the ordinary, much less three.

[Scorpion]

If it were to become a 4 or 5, I wouldn't expect it to become one until it hits the GOM. Could be a 3 before it hits the GOM though.

[wxwatcher91]

CrazyC83, I have one problem with your forecast...


...I think you take Ernesto too far to the right


Seriously, I think that it is unlikely to happen, however if that forecast had to come out for one storm this year, you picked the right one.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Not a lot of changes. Just some minor updates, and the track moves slightly to the left in the long term. Still predicting a monster hurricane as it enters the Gulf and the Loop Current will keep it strong.

Now is a good time to have your hurricane preparation in order anyway in the Gulf basin, from Florida to Mexico and Cuba.

Current - 15.1/71.2 - 997mb - 50mph
12 hrs - 15.6/73.5 - 991mb - 65mph
24 hrs - 16.4/75.3 - 985mb - 75mph
36 hrs - 17.1/77.2 - 977mb - 90mph - Near Jamaica
48 hrs - 17.9/79.4 - 968mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 19.1/81.6 - 951mb - 120mph - Near Grand Cayman
72 hrs - 20.8/84.1 - 922mb - 155mph
96 hrs - 24.3/86.5 - 905mb - 175mph
120 hrs - 29.1/87.6 - 921mb - 145mph

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Ernesto Prediction #4

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction. Don't use this for official planning!

The extreme predictions seem to have been evaded by the northeast turn. Nonetheless, Ernesto will still be a dangerous hurricane! It will be felt the most in eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, the Carolinas and the Bahamas, with Jamaica also feeling serious effects with rainfall. The path has been moved well to the right, beyond the NHC forecasts, due to a ridge that I think will penetrate eastward and its current northwest movement. Its movement will greatly weaken the storm over Cuba, but the Gulf Stream waters of about 29-31C will allow restrengthening.

Note the large cone of uncertainty that can change with every move he makes! That is just for the center of the storm too.

Current - 17.8/73.9 - 997mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 18.6/75.2 - 981mb - 100mph
24 hrs - 20.5/75.9 - 985mb - 70mph - Inland over Cuba
36 hrs - 22.2/77.0 - 982mb - 75mph - Over water
48 hrs - 23.8/77.4 - 969mb - 105mph - Near Grand Bahama
60 hrs - 25.3/77.8 - 962mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 27.6/78.0 - 953mb - 125mph
96 hrs - 32.2/76.8 - 942mb - 140mph
120 hrs - 36.1/72.9 - 954mb - 125mph

[bombarderoazul]

Ernesto back to tropical Storm! good news!

[Evil Jeremy]

this cone is laughable.

[CrazyC83]

At least we don't have a catastrophic disaster for the US if that prediction holds true! I am sensing a quick northerly turn is happening...

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Depression Ernesto Prediction #5

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction. Don't use this for official planning!

Landfalls in Cuba and perhaps Haiti weakened Ernesto dramatically. It is currently close to emerging from Cuba. I have initialized Ernesto as a 35mph tropical depression. However, the conditions in the Straits favor rapid intensification, so be ready for such! I am still to the east of the NHC track, but closer to South Florida than previously. It still does so as a very strong storm, and just gets stronger as it follows the Gulf Stream. The Bahamas are in the center of the system and really need to be ready. ANY deviations to the left - at any time - puts it on land, so the East Coast needs to be ready too!

Current - 20.4/75.7 - 1006mb - 35mph - Inland
12 hrs - 21.8/77.0 - 1007mb - 30mph - Over Water
24 hrs - 23.2/78.4 - 1003mb - 45mph
36 hrs - 24.7/79.0 - 993mb - 75mph - Near Andros Island
48 hrs - 26.6/79.3 - 978mb - 100mph - Near Grand Bahama
60 hrs - 28.9/78.9 - 962mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 31.4/77.1 - 951mb - 125mph
96 hrs - 35.8/72.7 - 947mb - 115mph
120 hrs - 41.3/65.7 - 958mb - 105mph

[Lifesgud2]

Tropical Depression Ernesto Prediction #5

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction. Don't use this for official planning!

Landfalls in Cuba and perhaps Haiti weakened Ernesto dramatically. It is currently close to emerging from Cuba. I have initialized Ernesto as a 35mph tropical depression. However, the conditions in the Straits favor rapid intensification, so be ready for such! I am still to the east of the NHC track, but closer to South Florida than previously. It still does so as a very strong storm, and just gets stronger as it follows the Gulf Stream. The Bahamas are in the center of the system and really need to be ready. ANY deviations to the left - at any time - puts it on land, so the East Coast needs to be ready too!

Current - 20.4/75.7 - 1006mb - 35mph - Inland
12 hrs - 21.8/77.0 - 1007mb - 30mph - Over Water
24 hrs - 23.2/78.4 - 1003mb - 45mph
36 hrs - 24.7/79.0 - 993mb - 75mph - Near Andros Island
48 hrs - 26.6/79.3 - 978mb - 100mph - Near Grand Bahama
60 hrs - 28.9/78.9 - 962mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 31.4/77.1 - 951mb - 125mph
96 hrs - 35.8/72.7 - 947mb - 115mph
120 hrs - 41.3/65.7 - 958mb - 105mph

With all due respect, you have not been correct yet. What makes you think you are correct now. For whatever its worth this thing can go puff...