Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

BonesXL · #21 Postby **BonesXL** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:47 am

Again this storms teach and humble us all...that no matter what no one really has a grasp of mother nature....We get blasted for giving our opinions and now this storm has really changed cause..FOR NOW that is

rockyman · #22 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:48 am

06z GFS shifts back to the west and shows landfall around Ft Walton Beach/Panama City area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

Emmett_Brown · #23 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:52 am

Here are the most recent model runs that I could fine... anyone have a spagetti model with other solutions on it?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

SouthAlabamaWX · #24 Postby **SouthAlabamaWX** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:54 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Here are the most recent model runs that I could fine... anyone have a spagetti model with other solutions on it?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

The new ones will not be out for another couple of hours.

#25 Postby **tailgater** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:56 am

BonesXL wrote:Again this storms teach and humble us all...that no matter what no one really has a grasp of mother nature....We get blasted for giving our opinions and now this storm has really changed cause..FOR NOW that is

We sure do seem to at the mercy of the models that aren't preforming that well. The way it's looking this morn I wouldn't be surpised if it didn't hit the US mainland at all. Do you feel lucky Punk.

weatherwindow · #26 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:03 am

Jevo wrote:alot of people going to wake up with the Hurricane title in this thread and jawdrop....... classic example of diurnal strengthening.... Sunday is going to be an interesting day nonetheless.. Especially for Monroe county EOC

.....expect a state of local emerg declaration for monroe cty this afternoon...the usual closures will begin tomorrow morning...rich

rockyman · #27 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:04 am

Whoaa...Not only does the GFS 06z show Panama City hit in 136 hours, it also stalls the system on the coast where it sits for at least 36 hours while it dissipates...This would cause horrible flooding

I normally don't post graphics, but since no one is awake yet...

138 hours:

174 hours:

#28 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:07 am

should be interesting to see the other models come out and see what they are doing with the storm

#29 Postby **Incident_MET** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:09 am

Jevo wrote:alot of people going to wake up with the Hurricane title in this thread and jawdrop....... classic example of diurnal strengthening.... Sunday is going to be an interesting day nonetheless.. Especially for Monroe county EOC

Hi Jevo: I would say this was a case of the shear finally relaxing on the system. Ernesto would have strengthened with the relaxed shear day or night. So I wouldn't necessarily attribute it to something diurnal. Yes All FL EOC's will have an interesting day.

SouthAlabamaWX · #30 Postby **SouthAlabamaWX** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:10 am

Jevo wrote:should be interesting to see the other models come out and see what they are doing with the storm

The tropical models may move alittle west. Many of the tropical models run off the GFS.

#31 Postby **drezee** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 am

I have to believe that the models have shifted to an extreme case. It will likely go back W in time.

#32 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:13 am

Good Morning Ernesto

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... WWSqai.jpg

BensonTCwatcher · #33 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:14 am

Well, at the risk of getting flamed, I can see where the GFS is coming from. The ridge is filling back in from the weakness. That said, my guess is this still moves across eastern Cuba but then more westerly. I am pretty bearish on anything east coast of FL. The question is how much of bite Ernesto takes out of the FL west coast, if any.

The key will be the trough later in the week if it pans out. Gonna be interesting either way. Feel bad for the Mets, E. is trashing their weekend I bet

#34 Postby **docjoe** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:14 am

This morning is another reason why I just do NOT find hurricane season nearly as exciting as I used to. Living in the panhandle I was going to start buying gas today and cutting a couple of extra sheets of plywood(two direct impacts in 2 years taught me to start early). Now this huge shift. Will be interesting to see if the models stick with this. In the meantime hurry up and wait...again.

docjoe

28_Storms · #35 Postby **28_Storms** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:15 am

Luckily and unluckily, this storm will likely be much larger than Charley and affect a larger area.

Explain how a storm bigger than Charley is lucky?

#36 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:16 am

SWFLA_CANE · #37 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:17 am

Looks a lot like the path Charley took...One good thing is the models will shift 100 times before any landfall.

Scorpion · #38 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:18 am

I just woke up this morning and am in awe. Not only might I actually feel some impact from this but its a hurricane! I did not expect this at all.

Emmett_Brown · #39 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:18 am

Unless I am interpretting the recon data wrong, they just sent a vortex message with 995 mb pressure, which is up several mb... the rapid intensification seems to have taken a break.

Looking at IR and WV, looks like this one is getting really close to Haiti. This is going to be a confusing day all around. I think this could still clip Haiti.

Also, i dont think the center is done organizing. It could still jump around some until the shear abates completely and the core of the storm establishes itself a little better.

That being said, it is probably better to focus on the near term a little more instead of the models. I think there is a good chance that Ernesto will spend a good amount of time over land, and makes the future very uncertain. I live in FL, and i am hoping that the storm never really gels for the time being.

It must have been a very difficult forecast for the NHC... and looks to continue that way. I am surprised they changed the path as much as they did without model consistency from run to run.

The mountains of Haiti and W Cuba are tall... they will rip Ernesto a new one if he runs into them.

cinlfla · #40 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:21 am

tailgater wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at this close in near where the Nhc has the center. There appears to be a warm spot. Its hard to tell it could easly be a cooler cloud but I don't think so. It was moving north-northwestward for the first half of this frame. But then over the last 2 frames shows it going more west-northwest again. So it most likely will clip the northern eyewall on land but the center could still stay off shore. Remember dennis went right over. We will see.

zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

I'm looking at the GHCC site and there seems to be eyelike feature moving NNW still, and could go over the the western penisular and also just about miss Cuba on this course.

I noticed that also, it looks like and eye is starting to form there.

Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

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