Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fci]

I called the FL hit and got flamed

Well, you do a bit of a history of calling a lot of Fla hits!

[gatorcane]

I called the FL hit and got flamed

Well, you do a bit of a history of calling a lot of Fla hits!

Perhaps I do

[sfwx]

MLB NWS:


TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CLEARS FLORIDA THU. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WED THEN QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THU.

[gatorcane]

MLB NWS:


TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CLEARS FLORIDA THU. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WED THEN QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THU.

and the hurricane season is winding down with fronts like that clearing Florida

[Aquawind]

Sounds Glorious! Go Twins! Plenty of season left! This won't be wrapping anything up unfortunately..

[fci]

However with fronts like this clearing Florida, the NW Carib becomes the place to watch.

[gatorcane]

However with fronts like this clearing Florida, the NW Carib becomes the place to watch.

true I agree with you with these fronts we are seeing the NW Caribbean could be open for business in a week or so.

[CrazyC83]

Accuweather thinking maybe more W but no threat to CONUS.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=0

My thinking too. The trough will block any attack on the CONUS unless it dips so far south that it misses it (basically needs to stay below 20°N).

[HURAKAN]

A new era is beginning in Helene's life. Go Hell girl!!!

[Blown Away]

If the next NOGAPS model run drops the W turn, then all reliable guidance says out to sea. It's obvious when reality sets in because the # of posts decreases. People are beginning to accept the reality.

[storms in NC]

If the next NOGAPS model run drops the W turn, then all reliable guidance says out to sea. It's obvious when reality sets in because the # of posts decreases. People are beginning to accept the reality.

IMO I don't think that NOGAPS model will drop the west movement. I think it see someting other don't. It has done very well with past storms this year.

Gordon is the big key here too not just the fronts that are coming thought off the east coast. If he moves fast out of the way liike some one said here it will close off the weakness of the ridge. That maybe what NOGAPS model is seeing. JMO

[Blown Away]

If the next NOGAPS model run drops the W turn, then all reliable guidance says out to sea. It's obvious when reality sets in because the # of posts decreases. People are beginning to accept the reality.

IMO I don't think that NOGAPS model will drop the west movement. I think it see someting other don't. It has done very well with past storms this year.

Gordon is the big key here too not just the fronts that are coming thought off the east coast. If he moves fast out of the way liike some one said here it will close off the weakness of the ridge. That maybe what NOGAPS model is seeing. JMO

IMO, your theory is not totally out the question, but if that does happen it may go another 5-7 degrees W, and still N of the islands, before getting booted out.

[Windtalker1]

MLB NWS:


TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CLEARS FLORIDA THU. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WED THEN QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THU.

90 degree weather is forcated through next sunday here in South Florida......where is this so called strong cold front? Surely with the passing of this Strong Cold Front, shouldn't the Temps be lower? Maybe this won't be as Strong as everyone is saying.....maybe it won't be strong enough to offer that weakness for the turn....maybe just maybe

[hurricanedude]

in deep south florida...late summer fronts dont usually lower the temps...its usually lowers the humidity...which can actually cause it to be a few degrees warmer than usual...

[fci]

But it feels a lot better especially in the evenings when even 80 feels pretty good when the humidity is lower.

[HURAKAN]

MLB NWS:


TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CLEARS FLORIDA THU. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WED THEN QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND FLORIDA THU.

My first reaction was, "Major League Baseball talking about weather conditions in such detail" but then Melbourne came to my head!!!

[HURAKAN]

HELENE BEGINS TO WRAP:





HURRICANE BY 11 PM, ANYONE?

[storms in NC]

I don't think so. It is a large storm and it will take some time to build up it Hurricane. But yes it is looking better as time goes by. JIMO

[gatorcane]

Looks like a bit of a NW jog but now back to a WNW movement.

[Blown Away]

Look at the attached Helene historical track, the 2 lone west trackers defied the climatology and became legends.

1900 Galveston
1928 Okeechobee

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad