WPAC Tropical Depression [ex- Trami/26W]

[senorpepr]

REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 136.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
900 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 171618Z AMSR-E IMAGE
AND A 171631Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOW WEAK LOW CYCLONIC TURNING,
AND HINT AT MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS, AND FURTHER INDICATES
STRONG SHEARING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
DUE TO A TECHNICAL DIFFICULTY, NO WARNING GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
FOR THIS WARNING.//

[P.K.]

After looking at the latest JTWC forecast, it appears they agree. They have weakened Trami into a tropical depression, although they do have it reaching (briefly) to typhoon status.

I think that is the strongest they have had this system. The Tokyo forecast has shifted a little north now.

[senorpepr]

After looking at the latest JTWC forecast, it appears they agree. They have weakened Trami into a tropical depression, although they do have it reaching (briefly) to typhoon status.

Ah, if that's the case, I stand corrected. I haven't really been following JTWC too closely in regards to Trami. Thanks for the update!

[P.K.]

Neither have I, I'm only going by what I've seen on the NRL page.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 135.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
815 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 172050Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
REVEALS VERY WEAK WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TD 26W.
FURTHERMORE, THE QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATE A LACK OF DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AND A
DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TD 26W ARE EVIDENT ON ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ANALYSES. THIS FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS: THE TRACK IS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, AND THE STORM
IS DISSIPATED OVER WATER BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z,
182100Z AND 190300Z.//

JTWC calls for dissipation in 48hr, peaking at 45 kt in 24 hr.

[JonathanBelles]

that would be good

[senorpepr]

Looks like that cold front is really shearing apart Trami. Hopefully this forecasts pans out. The folks in the Philippines need a break.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z DEC TO 2010000Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
815 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 172050Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS
VERY WEAK WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TD 26W. FURTHERMORE, THE
QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE A LACK OF
DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVER-
GENCE IN THE VICINITY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREAS-
ING SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TD 26W ARE EVIDENT ON ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ANALYSES.
B. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TD 26W HAS BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
EAST OF GUAM. RECENT 700-MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS JAPAN HAS OPENED A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE;
TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS DO
NOT ANALYZE THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS CORRECTLY, AND INSTEAD ANCHOR IT
CLOSER TO TAIWAN. AS A RESULT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS TRACK TD 26W WEST-
WARD IN THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS, AND THE TRACK OF TD
26W OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE ADVECTION AND BAROTROPIC MODEL FORE-
CASTS ARE CONSIDERED MORE PLAUSIBLE. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT
WEAKENED THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD, AND FLATTEN THE TRACK OF TD 26W.
A SECOND APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, AGAIN ALLOWING TD 26W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS TD 26W
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LUZON NORTH-
EASTWARD TO JAPAN, IT WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, WBAR AND THE BAM MODEL SUITE.
C. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MODERATE VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. DESPITE FAVORABLE AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
LACK OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS PREVENTED TD 26W FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HINDERED BY THESE FACTORS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM THEREAFTER.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 16.1N 134.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.1N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
48HF 201200UTC 16.0N 127.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 211200UTC 16.0N 124.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT

[Chacor]

The JTWC has issued its final advisory, having never upgraded Trami to a tropical storm.

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 134.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181040Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND NO INDICATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 180922Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED
AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 134E WITH STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
NORTH OF 15N, WHICH IS WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTH-
WESTERLIES IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

[P.K.]

Pressure is up 2hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0623 TRAMI (0623)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.3N 134.9E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 15.9N 131.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
48HF 201800UTC 15.6N 127.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
72HF 211800UTC 15.5N 124.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT

[Chacor]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0623 TRAMI (0623)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16N 133E
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 1008HPA