TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

#21 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:29 am

It looks great on latest satellite at the moment. Here's a nice image of Bondo in relation to adjacent landmass:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... erSat.html

wxmann_91 · #22 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:00 am

Impressive to say the least

Here's another:

HurricaneBill · #23 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:30 am

NRL as of 0800Z has Bondo at 75kt (1-min) and 967mb.

Meso · #24 Postby **Meso** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:45 am

Oh my,this is forecast to get rather strong indeed.Once it passes the area of shear 15-25kt's it will be in shear of between 0-15 and should really get strong.If it stays as strong as forecast when making landfall it could end up very bad.Hope it's not another Eline of 2000 leaving 1/2 million people homeless

#25 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 7:08 am

Upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Bondo. 85kts, 950hPa.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 1200 UTC :
10.7S / 58.5E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.3S/50.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 11.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/12/22 12 UTC: 12.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+.
THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING
EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z). DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIRECT.
SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYSED from 18 at 18utc, AND dVORAK RULES
BROKEN
IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWRADS AT THE
END OF FORCAST.

#26 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 7:13 am

That is some increase in the last 24 hours. I notice in the comments above they mention about it being reanalysed and finding that Dvorak rules have been broken.

18/12/2006 12:00 63.10 10.80 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1000 25 kt, 46 km/h 35 kt, 65 km/h
18/12/2006 18:00 61.60 11.00 2.5 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h
19/12/2006 00:00 60.50 11.00 3.0 TEMPETE tropicale moderée 992 40 kt, 74 km/h 56 kt, 104 km/h
19/12/2006 06:00 59.50 10.50 4.0 Forte TEMPETE tropicale 976 60 kt, 111 km/h 84 kt, 156 km/h
19/12/2006 12:00 58.50 10.70 5.0 CYCLONE tropical 950 85 kt, 157 km/h 119 kt, 221 km/h

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 8:00 am

A nice way to end the year!!!

Chacor · #28 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 9:47 am

REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 05S WILL INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

The JTWC is calling for a Category 5 in 24 hours! :eek:

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BONDO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.6S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.5S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.4S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

Chacor · #29 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:14 am

It now has a pinhole eye! The JTWC are saying 938 mbar now.

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:31 am

Nice eye!!!

Chacor · #31 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:42 am

19/1430 UTC 10.7S 58.0E T6.0/6.0 BONDO -- South Indian Ocean

6.0 corresponds to 115 kt/Cat 4 1-minute.

#32 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:43 am

Various Dvorak estimates are now up to T6.0 suggesting around a 185km/h (100kts) Intense Tropical Cyclone.

Edit - Too slow. :lol:

SAB, AFWA, and JTWC all agree at 6.0.

Ptarmigan · #33 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:40 pm

I saw a forecast that Tropical Cyclone Bondo could strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane.

#34 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:00 pm

925hPa, 105ks, now upgraded to an intense tropical cyclone.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/3/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7S / 57.4E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 10.7S/55.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.8S/53.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.9S/51.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 11.0S/49.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.6S/48.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/12/22 18 UTC: 12.7S/46.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0+.
THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH AND TODAY MORNING
DUE TO ETABLISHMENT OF A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANEL EQUATORWARDS, AND A
MOONSON FLOW BECOMING MORE DIRECT.
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM WITH STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED VERY CLOSED
TO THE CENTER.
IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, LIGHTLY INTENSIFYING, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.

wxmann_91 · #35 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:16 pm

Now up to 130 kt per NRL. Eye has dried out and warmed significantly. It would not take much of an increase in convection to bring this to Cat 5, and that could very well happen as the storm is heading toward warmer SST's. Of course that also brings up the possibility of an ERC within the next 24 hr.

Chacor · #36 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:52 pm

Northern Madagascar looks like it'll be in for it.

HurricaneBill · #37 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:47 pm

It looks like it will skirt the tip of Madagascar. However, eventually, it will have to recurve. This is kinda reminding me of Cyclone Kamisy from 1984.

Derek Ortt · #38 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:49 pm

doesn't quite look to be 130KT. Not sure where JT got that number from.

Probably in the 105-115KT range based upon the sat signature. The latest SSM/I pass was not exactly as impressive as it should have been

wxmann_91 · #39 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:57 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:doesn't quite look to be 130KT. Not sure where JT got that number from.

Probably in the 105-115KT range based upon the sat signature. The latest SSM/I pass was not exactly as impressive as it should have been

The SSMI pass was from several hours ago, when the eye was still partially filled. Now it has cleared out very well, the eye has warmed and dried considerably, and there is strong, deep convection surrounding the eye (up to -80C). I know I'll probably get bashed, but based on the above observations, I'd say it's a 5 now.

Cyclenall · #40 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:31 pm

That was some extreme intensification there. Last I checked it was at tropical storm strength now it's on the verge of a category 5 cyclone. I don't think it's quite there yet but it's close. I agree with the estimation of 130 knots or strong category 4. I viewed the 24 loop and that inner core organized extremely quickly and a medium sized eye that looked fairly beautiful popped out. The loop shows that the eye has since shrunk in size near a pin-hole.

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... va05S.html

TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

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