NWP: Developed Low former TS Kong-rey

[Chacor]

Micronesia advisory:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM GUAM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

PMZ172>174-010200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE
1200 PM GUAM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

...WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS ...

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WET WEATHER THAT COVERS PORTIONS OF CHUUK
...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES IS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY AND WILL LIKELY BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ON PONHPEI OBSERVED 1.64
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD FROM 10 AM FRIDAY
THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. KOSRAE RECORDED 1.86 INCHES AND CHUUK
OBSERVED 0.12 INCHES FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AS A RESULT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS KOSRAE STATE FOR ANOTHER DAY. CHUUK
AND POHNPEI STATES CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

THIS RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE BRIEF FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES OVER VULNERABLE AREAS ON THE
MORE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS.

$$

ZIOBRO

[Chacor]

Public bulletins issued! First storm on the way!

WTPQ20 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 07.6N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 10.0N 151.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300552Z MAR 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 311500
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 7.5N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.4N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.2N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.5N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.7N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 154.7E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z
MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300600 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

Forecast graphic.

Tropical Depression 01W Graphic forecast

[P.K.]

Public bulletins issued! First storm on the way!

Aviation warning has it at 35kts within 12 hours.

As mentioned earlier we have just gone past the point at which in the 1951-2005 average the first storm forms. The first one last year formed on 9/5/2006 so we are a bit ahead of that if this does develop more.

[P.K.]

I've put a map together quickly using the forecast points.

[HURAKAN]

[marq=up][font=Georgia]First tropical system in the Northern Hemisphere in 2007! [/font][/marq]

[Chacor]

Well, third TD if you believe the JMA - there was one in early January and another one earlier this month.

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 311521
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 AM GUAM LST SUN APR 1 2007

..NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W EAST OF CHUUK...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W INTENSIFIES MORE THAN
FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED WITH LITTLE OR
NO ADVANCED NOTICE FOR PORTIONS OF CHUUK STATE TODAY. THIS INCLUDES
ULUL...FANANU AND CHUUK.

IN ADDITION...A TYPHOON WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY
FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS INCLUDES TINIAN...SAIPAN...ROTA AND
GUAM.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
350 MILES EAST OF ULUL
795 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND
780 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...7.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 154.7 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST.

$$

HENDRICKS

[HURAKAN]

Well, third TD if you believe the JMA - there was one in early January and another one earlier this month.

Nevertheless, this is the first one to be interesting. The other ones can't compete with future Kong-rey.



Large system.

[JonathanBelles]

When do advisories now come out?

[P.K.]

Every three hours for the analysis (0000, 0300, 0600 etc) with the new forecast every six hours (0000, 0600 etc).

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow...this one is developing fast. Looks like Guam could be in the firing line.

On a seperate note low pressure is dragging down cold artic air and it's colliding with warm moist air from the tropics over eastern china. Some fat cells popping up just to North of Shanghai and I've seen my first lightning of the year! Good timing!

[HURAKAN]

The system looks amazing. As most WPAC systems do!!!

[JonathanBelles]

T0701 (KONG-REY)
Issued at
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0701 KONG-REY (0701) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 08.1N 154.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 10.9N 149.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 021800UTC 13.1N 144.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 031800UTC 15.2N 140.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT

[CycloneJim]

Even though it is only early spring westpacific storms can get very intense anytime of the year. To name a few are supertyphoon Mitag in 2002 reached an intensity of 140 kts in early March of that year. Supertyphoon Andy, April 1989 was 140kts as it recurved just to the SE of Guam.
http://www.cyclonejim.com

[JonathanBelles]

wasnt there suposed to be a JTWC advisory and graphic at 18z?

[HURAKAN]

wasnt there suposed to be a JTWC advisory and graphic at 18z?

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 8.3N 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 9.5N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 10.9N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.3N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.0N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.1N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 153.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 01W HAS INTENSIFIED AT A SLIGHTLY GREATER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.

[P.K.]

Deepened another 2hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0701 KONG-REY (0701)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 09.1N 153.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 11.6N 148.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 021800UTC 13.1N 144.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 031800UTC 15.2N 140.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =

[P.K.]

I've posted an updated climatology thread including 0701 in the TA area here.

[cycloneye]

GUZ001-002-003-004-010500-
TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY (01W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM GUAM LST SUN APR 1 2007

...TYPHOON WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MARIANAS...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANAS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 8 AM...A TYPHOON WATCH WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KONG-REY (01W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
695 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND
685 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA.

TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PLAN AND CHECK THE CONTENTS OF YOUR DISASTER
SUPPLIES KIT. FILL UP YOUR CAR WITH GAS. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE
AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND YOUR YARD. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR
DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND CLEAN YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE.
PREPARE YOUR TYPHOON SHUTTERS. CHECK SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS.
EXPECTANT MOTHERS SHOULD MAKE ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE HOSPITAL IF
NECESSARY. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MARIANAS BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM GETS
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR UPDATED
OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS. ON GUAM...NOAA WEATHER
RADIO IS BROADCAST AT 162.40 MHZ AND AVAILABLE BY CALLING 211. ON
TINIAN AND SAIPAN...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AT 162.55 MHZ OR ON
THE LOCAL CABLE TV.

$$

HENDRICKS