South Caribbean firing

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:33 pm

If it continues to move westward climatology says that in the EPAC it should have a better chance of development.

'CaneFreak · #22 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:45 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Looks like more of an EPAC candidate to me. Is there anything to pull it north?

Thats what I think as well....the low level steering currents are from west to east NOT north to south....

CourierPR · #23 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 5:40 pm

on the latest satellite loop it appears to be moving north.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #24 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 5:42 pm

Very intense convection in the area
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:03 pm

HurricaneHunter914 · #26 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:12 pm

Well, it's been really persistent lately and the convection keeps on looking better and better. As it moves North, is there a possibility that the SE Coast will get any rain from this?

#27 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:33 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Looks like more of an EPAC candidate to me. Is there anything to pull it north?

There's no ridge to its north to move it straight west towards EPAC. According to the GFS, a trough along the SE US will pull it northward and then NE across SE FL or Bahamas and into the Atlantic.

Surface pressures in the Caribbean are starting to trend downward, once the upper level low near Cuba moves WSW towards the BOC upper level conditions in the western Caribbean will become better.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #28 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:33 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this area if shear continues reducing may have a chance at tropical
development, and a good chance at that for tropical development.
As for where it goes, wheverever it goes, "Chantal" could give a
good soaking..

SO folks, I'm going out on a limb and calling this
a possible tropical depression to Tropical Storm Chantal
in the next 3-5 days.

#29 Postby **windstorm99** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 6:59 pm

With that ULL to its north i think development chances are low for now.

#30 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:05 pm

Continuing to blossom tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

#31 Postby **windstorm99** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:11 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Continuing to blossom tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Looks to be on the decrease to me.Thunderstorm activity is not as intense as it was earlier this afternoon.

miamicanes177 · #32 Postby **miamicanes177** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:13 pm

this could become hurricane chantal

DESTRUCTION5 · #33 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:21 pm

This wont be there in the morning...

#34 Postby **hial2** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:24 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:SO folks, I'm going out on a limb and calling this
a possible tropical depression to Tropical Storm Chantal
in the next 3-5 days.

3-5 days? Do think you are Berwick Bay??

... My feeling is that this will fizzle by the influence of the ULL...

#35 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 7:27 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html Not Poofing Yet

#36 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 8:39 pm

No poofing -- at least not overnight, I'd speculate.

Weatherfreak000 · #37 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 8:53 pm

It's an impressive area but given...

1) Shear levels ALL around it.

2) No Evidence of a circulation.

3) Dry Air to the North

How can we expect much from this?

There is 40 knot shear around it, and the shear is on the increase in the Caribbean.

There is almost fractional chance this area can develop, it can only dampen the defenses for another possible disturbance.

Praxus · #38 Postby **Praxus** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:44 pm

Damn there's a lot of moisture in the area

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

and looks like a circulation north west of it

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #39 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:08 pm

hial2 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:SO folks, I'm going out on a limb and calling this
a possible tropical depression to Tropical Storm Chantal
in the next 3-5 days.

3-5 days? Do think you are Berwick Bay?? ... My feeling is that this will fizzle by the influence of the ULL...

I was in a prediction mood...LOL...I'm still betting on 3-5 days a tropical system from this...
moisture looks good..shear to decrease...ssts are explosive...and many
models have been forecasting a low to develop here.

Yup 60% chance of development. I'm pretty
confident...but If I'm wrong...oh well...
But I just have a strong confidence with the circumstances for this
system.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #40 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:17 pm

Just to back up my claims...we have a ton of moisture in the area...
convection could become explosive...and the ULL over Cuba is supposed
to dissapate according to TWC's tropical update...
so things could get quite interesting
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

South Caribbean firing

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