LOW FORMING IN NW Caribbean RECON TOMORROW

[mf_dolphin]

Before everyone panics, if we have an active system we'll make allowances and delay the conversion. We want to get this done as soon as possible but we do have flexibility

[Weatherfreak14]

Before everyone panics, if we have an active system we'll make allowances and delay the conversion. We want to get this done as soon as possible but we do have flexibility

Ok at ;east this puts alot of relief to me cause this is my place where i get all my info from, its just so unbelievble we could have our 3rd storm by this weekend.

[Chacor]

However...

[Frank2]

Weatherfreak14,

Well, just remember that the first two storms were both fairly weak sub-tropical or tropical systems, and, this one will likely be the same if it does develop, which is questionable, as others here have mentioned...

[SouthFloridawx]

That little tail stretching back to the south is interesting...

Hard to see it getting going quickly...also...I am not sure the NHC is thinking there is much long-term potential. Although they have put a low level invest on the schedule for tomorrow...they don't plan to do any tasking Saturday. Fairly persistent SW flow should take this over Cuba and into the atlantic...predominantly as a rain event.

At least we have a little something to watch today...

MW

Looking the steering layer for the 850-500mb;
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

You could be correct, although there really isn't much to kick it out real fast. Generally we'll see it move 5-10kts to the N and NNE. However with a 500mb ridge building in, if it doesn't move fast enough it may not make the train just yet. I guess it depends on how fast this develops. I'm with you though, on probably just a rain event, but it may end up nicking the Florida Coast... Hopefully it will throw some tropical moisture up here to the bay area....

[Weatherfreak14]

Weatherfreak14,

Well, just remember that the first two storms were both fairly weak sub-tropical or tropical systems, and, this one will likely be the same if it does develop, which is questionable, as others here have mentioned...

still is fairly a big deal when it comes to named storms thoughk, tropicial or sub-tropicial.

[windstorm99]

We may see this area get tagged later today by NRL if this area can persist.A track to the NNE to NE seems resonable to me.

[Chacor]

535
ABNT20 KNHC 141510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[miamicanes177]

why is recon scheduled to investigate when NHC just said this wont develop due to unfavorable upper level winds?

[windstorm99]

Makes sense with 30kt windshear in place.

[NDG]

why is recon scheduled to investigate when NHC just said this wont develop due to unfavorable upper level winds?

The usual conservative NHC's statement.

[TheRingo]

could be the oil interest in the gulf getting nervous.

[AnnularCane]

Before everyone panics, if we have an active system we'll make allowances and delay the conversion. We want to get this done as soon as possible but we do have flexibility

In chat I predicted Chantal would arrive the day the servers went down. I guess that is less of a concern then.

[miamicanes177]

why is recon scheduled to investigate when NHC just said this wont develop due to unfavorable upper level winds?

The usual conservative NHC's statement.

Well they shouldn't fly and waste money if they don't think it will develop

[Stormcenter]

why is recon scheduled to investigate when NHC just said this wont develop due to unfavorable upper level winds?

The usual conservative NHC's statement.

Well they shouldn't fly and waste money if they don't think it will develop

Exactly, not when gas is $3 plus a gallon.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm sure a flight can also be canceled. Although it's probably not as easy as setting it up. There is a system in place and they are just using step by step practices, in order to make things work as they do.

[Chacor]

I'm sure a flight can also be canceled. Although it's probably not as easy as setting it up. There is a system in place and they are just using step by step practices, in order to make things work as they do.

There was a flight into something earlier this season, can't remember (might've been Andrea) cancelled for "resource issues"...

[SWFLA_CANE]

I thought an area had to be an active Invest before recon is scheduled

[curtadams]

I think they're just being paranoid. Only the CMC predicts anything to come out of this, and that looks like a typical due-north CMC phantom system. It's going to take a lot of coordination to be ready to fly (the crew has to be given notice, the plane readied, etc.) so they're just giving themselves the option - cancellation is easy. Why they're set up for this while ignoring numerous more promising systems in the past I can't say.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's a shame this feature can't migrate it's way into the BOC, then perhaps we'd really have something to look at...