Atlantic INVEST 94L

[MusicCityMan]

Even though we appear to be into the rainy season now.. we still need more.. I personally hope wanna be Chantal grows some..

Remember.. the stronger she gets.. the more precip she'd likely drop.. A weak to moderate TS would be nice.. and how about that if this becomes the 3rd TS to hit the state already in 07. Makes ya almost wonder about August and September,

[wxman57]

Looks like another good rain event for S FL, nothing more than that IMO.

I would agree, just some beneficial rain for Florida if they're lucky. The upper low is kicking out to the NE fairly quickly now and taking the thunderstorms with it. It should be on the other side of Cuba heading for the Bahamas by morning. I don't think the BAM models have much of a clue. This disturbance isn't likely to go aywhere near the FL panhandle. South Florida and the Bahamas should get some rain, though. TD/TS formation still unlikely.

[tailgater]

If that where to pan out, I know someone that would be hard to live with. Get it

[punkyg]

Hmmm...strange....almost reminds me of a Cindy-like path.


(Although certainly no threat to my state regardless, we've have enough rain you guys in Florida can take it. Although we had almost record highs here this week).

if it reminds you of cindy's track show it to us.

[Cyclone1]

If this were to become Chantal, 94L would get shredded to nearly a remnant low before it could hit the Panhandle.



If three, severely shredded Tropical Storms giving much needed rain to Florida is a bad omen, then I wonder what could be good?

Well, technically 3 disorganized tropical storms effecting Florida isn't that unusual. In August. It's still way to early for all of this, usually.

[jaxfladude]

POOF ALERT!!!

[tailgater]

Pressure inland in Houndras
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHTE.html
I like where they are putting L now 1008? Hit the NECP fronts button.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[jaxfladude]

Even though we appear to be into the rainy season now.. we still need more.. I personally hope wanna be Chantal grows some..

Remember.. the stronger she gets.. the more precip she'd likely drop.. A weak to moderate TS would be nice.. and how about that if this becomes the 3rd TS to hit the state already in 07. Makes ya almost wonder about August and September,

DULL Season come August and September I am calling it now......Quietest season on record w/o any hurricanes........season cancell

[wxman57]

Take a look at the deep-level steering winds:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Since this is primarily an upper-level feature causing the thunderstorms (the upper low), it should track with the upper-level winds. That means it would have a hard time heading north to the panhandle. Maybe some rain for south Florida. At the rate it's moving, it may move by pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon, though.

Here's another good graphic to look at on the Penn State ewall. Notice the upper-left panel. The mean wind speed at all levels is driven by that big upper low off the east U.S. coast. Anything in the NW Caribbean has one way to go - NE. And that upper low is doing just that now. Also, shear increases to the northeast. However, with the upper low also moving NE, the relative shear won't be as high as the maps indicate. In any case, at the speed it's moving, it may be in the Bahamas by tomorrow afternoon then out to sea.

[windstorm99]

I think there's also a chance the low of the eastern seaboard could prevent it from moving north and it may actually stay down there.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect a low at most. A tropical depression or storm is not out of question.

[CrazyC83]

I can't see this blob doing anything. None of the models develop it.

[NDG]

Looks like another good rain event for S FL, nothing more than that IMO.

I would agree, just some beneficial rain for Florida if they're lucky. The upper low is kicking out to the NE fairly quickly now and taking the thunderstorms with it. It should be on the other side of Cuba heading for the Bahamas by morning. I don't think the BAM models have much of a clue. This disturbance isn't likely to go aywhere near the FL panhandle. South Florida and the Bahamas should get some rain, though. TD/TS formation still unlikely.

So what do you make out of the continuing falling surface pressures?

The GFS has the ULL moving away and or dying off leaving behind the surface feature and better upper level conditions, is how I see the beneficts of the ULL moving away.

[windstorm99]

[Ivanhater]

Jim Cantore just showed one model moving the low into the central gulf and still moving NW to N...so models must be seeing something to move it that way

[Cyclenall]

I can't see this blob doing anything. None of the models develop it.

The GFS on Wednesday night did form a TC right where 94L is. It's not showing it anymore but the models did see something at a point.

[windstorm99]

Models for 94L up in Jonathan's Vigh's page.

[JonathanBelles]

1005.757mb at the closest buoy! That seems too low.

[Praxus]

Shear is lessening where it is now; but is forecast to be strong across the northern gulf and florida for a few days. Still, it may be fun to watch for a while.

[baygirl_1]

Okay, we'll take it up here--- but only if it's just a rainmaker! We really, really, really, really need the rain. My poor tomato plants are really struggling and my little boy asked me why they were brown! Of course, if it's gonna be more than a rainmaker, then we'll pass, thanks very much!
I guess it's another "wait and see," as usual.