Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Steve]

>>The ULL in the western caribbean won't be there by the time this wave gets there. Usually storms don't spin up in the eastern caribbean but it almost looks like a ridge is building west with the wave in the water vapor loop. The models think the northern end of the wave will develop but who knows?

Hey Nimbus (one of my favorite posters btw), I agree with you. It looks (model standpoint) like they're trying to merge an eastern US ridge/dome of high pressure into the Bemuda ridge with a little play in between where the "energy" would be.

Unrelated, but what seems interesting to me this year is how the contintental troughs are splitting compared to prior years. Usually with La Nina, a piece backs off a little southwest and then breaks off down toward south Texas/Mexico or whatever. But this year, it seems like the troughs are elongating or stretching prior to splitting off SW as still can be seeon on the 30 run loop of the WV here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Think that might be a function of la neutral or something?

Steve

[caneman]

Yeah, I know it is the Canadian and they've not been run to run consistent, however, they've been consistent enough with this particular area. And when you take at look the system it sure has that look that it wants to get going along with other factors mentioned in this thread, I think bears watching. I notice that too Steve with the NOGAPS and UKMET they are hinting at something. Lets see what happens.

[Berwick Bay]

Steve said
>>The ULL in the western caribbean won't be there by the time this wave gets there. Usually storms don't spin up in the eastern caribbean but it almost looks like a ridge is building west with the wave in the water vapor loop. The models think the northern end of the wave will develop but who knows?
_____________________________________________________
Is that so, Steve? About the ULL not being there in a few days? Cause, thats sort of what I was counting on several days ago, when I gave my prediction for development south of central Cuba at about 21N and 79W during the 26th - 29th of July timeframe. From what you are saying, models are looking at possible development to the north. Could be. I'm going to stay with the south central Cuban coast as being a possible sensitive area next week. Perhaps energy will split to the north, then after a couple of days the southern end (perhaps left behind) might show signs of organization south of Cuba. I knew that it was a real longshot, but I'm staying with that place and time for late next week.

[CourierPR]

I think we might see development sooner and closer to the islands.

[skysummit]

WOW...look at that low level convergence...

[storms in NC]

From what I see here on the wv loop it will be cought up in the ull to the NE of this wave. So No there will not be no action this time.

That ull has moved from 30N 55W to 30N 65W and is not slowing down either.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

JIMO
Deb

[caneman]

Looks like the GFS 18z might be sniffing out the scenario that Jeff MAsters was talking about off the Carolinas at end run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve]

>>Is that so, Steve?

That was a quote from Nimbus. He made that prog. He's probably right, but I'm going to wait and see.

Steve

[windstorm99]

10:30 NHC Graphical Outlook....

[skysummit]

I have a question....how are upper level winds not favorable when it's sitting under 5 - 10kts of shear in an anticyclonic direction?

[Berwick Bay]

Well Sky, you have the numbers right in front of you, so I can't argue with that. But from the WV Imagery, it looks like the Windward Wave is being affected by the ULL well south of Bermuda. I would expect that quite a bit of energy will be pulled to the north in the next couple of days. Lets see if there is anything left after that, further south, as the Wave itself moves further west. Also will be watching for subsequent systems as they follow into the Carribean in the next 10 days.

[skysummit]

Yea, I see that now BB. LOL...too many tabs opened and I'm forgetting about one of the most important.

[boca]

Alot of popcorn convection in and around that area,seems like plenty of energy that wants to consolidate into something all around the Leeward Islands.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp17.png
Hah,the CMC still likes the idea of developing it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp20.png
The UKmet showing tropical energy pulling north from Florida,to around the area that the CMC is showing the wave (Associated with a trough not the wave though,not sure if it deserves to be posted here)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp28.png
Same with the GFS as the UKmet

[caneman]

Well we can joke all we want about the CMC but if this thing ends of coming together like it looks like it wants to it sure will have been much closer to sniffing it out than any of the other models.

[caneman]

Looks to me like the southern part of the wave is the area to watch. Looks like it has caught up with the Longitude of the ULL to its North. I think once it gets by there we'll need to watch. Don't see anything at all developing if at all till Central or West Carib. IMO.

[storms in NC]

With a ULL in the Carib. and one 28N 68W and 25N 50W there about. Tell me how it can develope with all the ULL out there? wouldn't it be hard?

[caneman]

The ULL in the West Carib. looks weak at best to me and appears to be far enough away and moving in tandem (WEst) that is so as to not have any affect. I don't have a shear tendency map for that aresa. Can someone post?

[TheRingo]

Don't see much shear at all.

[TheRingo]

It's been on the decrease.