Season Cancel? Switch Has Yet to Turn On

[Coredesat]

2000 also had only one hurricane prior to September. That is normal.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But with the high heat content in the caribbean I was expecting much higher.
Very frustrating when reality doesn't match my forecasts.


Again I am not mad at anyone in the world I am just saying this year looks
wimpy aside deanie meanie.

[Coredesat]

Don't get angry at me. Just try to understand my point of view on this issue.
Even if you disagree no need for anger at me! Can't we be nice?

It's not just you, it's everyone who's saying "oh, the season is dead because we haven't had anything since Dean and Erin". If they knew any better they wouldn't be saying things like that at this point. Maybe if things haven't changed by the end of September (very, very unlikely), but certainly not now.

As for heat content, I said this about six times now. High heat content does not automatically mean a hurricane is going to spin up out of nowhere in the Caribbean. There are other factors.

[Brent]

I'm really trying to stay positive here, but it's hard(especially when we have two invests and both look like crap, like 95% of the storms this year). I'm still going to give it a little while before I go overboard with the season is dead posts(again)

[RL3AO]

What were you forecasting? 18 storms? 20? I think 13-15 storms is still very likely.

[wxmann_91]

But with the high heat content in the caribbean I was expecting much higher.
Very frustrating when reality doesn't match my forecasts.

Didn't many people already say that Heat Content helps maintain hurricanes rather than create or strengthen them?

I also thought you were afraid of hurricanes coming to your area?

It's August 29, for Pete's sake. And this isn't an El Nino year. Please, back claims like the title of the thread, with meteorological data.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was forecasting 20 at least. And ALL my forecasts this year
have been Dead Wrong. I am so embarrassed all my friends used to
think I was an expert they think I'm an idiot who makes wrong
predictions. Nobody trusts my predictions they all ridicule that I have a
worse than 50/50 shot at saying system X will develop because
I will be wrong or so they say. I've been stripped of all
meteorological credibility the past few weeks. People think
and they say loser to my face because im just the
stupid person who made wrong predictions.

All my cousins who relied on me for accurate info in 04 and 05
now say im just an idiot without common sense because of my
high predictions. WHY?? why cant i get anything right?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But with the high heat content in the caribbean I was expecting much higher.
Very frustrating when reality doesn't match my forecasts.

Didn't many people already say that Heat Content helps maintain hurricanes rather than create or strengthen them?

I also thought you were afraid of hurricanes coming to your area?

It's August 29, for Pete's sake. And this isn't an El Nino year. Please, back claims like the title of the thread, with meteorological data.

lol Im afraid if its category 2 or higher but a tropical storm is nice

[Coredesat]

I was forecasting 20 at least. And ALL my forecasts this year
have been Dead Wrong. I am so embarrassed all my friends used to
think I was an expert they think I'm an idiot who makes wrong
predictions. Nobody trusts my predictions they all ridicule that I have a
worse than 50/50 shot at saying system X will develop because
I will be wrong or so they say. I've been stripped of all
meteorological credibility the past few weeks. People think
and they say loser to my face because im just the
stupid person who made wrong predictions.

No offense, but a prediction of 20 storms without looking at the overall synoptic pattern isn't going to pan out. You're taking this way too seriously.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Cordesat in retrospect. From now on I'll predict
just 10-15 a year thats if i dont give up on predictions

[wxmann_91]

I was forecasting 20 at least. And ALL my forecasts this year
have been Dead Wrong. I am so embarrassed all my friends used to
think I was an expert they think I'm an idiot who makes wrong
predictions. Nobody trusts my predictions they all ridicule that I have a
worse than 50/50 shot at saying system X will develop because
I will be wrong or so they say. I've been stripped of all
meteorological credibility the past few weeks. People think
and they say loser to my face because im just the
stupid person who made wrong predictions.

Well I'm sorry about that, but one very good rule of meteorology is to not go on the extreme end of things. 20 is obviously a bit extreme.

I still think we will still see 10-15 NS's in the Atlantic basin this year. And I've been hitting on a big Caribbean season, and a quiet early season, based on ENSO climatology. There have been several factors this year outside of the Tropics, that have hinted that the atmosphere is acting as if there was a strong Nina in place. (excluding the SOI) I'm actually banking on another big Oct-Nov major hurricane in the Caribbean. The season itself may not get "really" going until mid-September.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I also feel guilty and wrong for wishing for somethign that hurts other people
like hurricanes. I know I shouldnt so I keep vacillating some threads on some
days I'll root for one and then the next I'll say no I shouldn't do this.
I can't decide I know it's evil and mean to root for hurricanes but I can't
help it. I wish I could be more compassionate and stop wishing for hurricanes
to get myself excited at the cost of a lot of peoples suffering...

Anyone else get this guilt that is also having excitement when
a big one forms? It's like youre going insane...guilty one second
really excited the next...

[Stratosphere747]

The irony with respect to the creator of this thread is dripping....

No disrespect, but gave me a reason to use -

[wxmann_91]

All my cousins who relied on me for accurate info in 04 and 05
now say im just an idiot without common sense because of my
high predictions. WHY?? why cant i get anything right?

You're not an idiot. Almost all meteorologists bust sometime.

I agree Cordesat in retrospect. From now on I'll predict
just 10-15 a year thats if i dont give up on predictions

Don't give up. You gain a lot of experience by posting predictions. I knew little to nothing about weather, just a little over two years ago.

I also feel guilty and wrong for wishing for somethign that hurts other people
like hurricanes. I know I shouldnt so I keep vacillating some threads on some
days I'll root for one and then the next I'll say no I shouldn't do this.
I can't decide I know it's evil and mean to root for hurricanes but I can't
help it. I wish I could be more compassionate and stop wishing for hurricanes
to get myself excited at the cost of a lot of peoples suffering...

Anyone else get this guilt that is also having excitement when
a big one forms? It's like youre going insane...guilty one second
really excited the next...

To last paragraph, yes. Hurricanes are going to happen regardless if you wish for them or not. I don't think you wish for death and destruction, right? You just are amazed and awed by nature's power and beauty, and that's really why we're all here. Nothing to be guilty about.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks wxman91 for that! It is encouraging...I'll try not to forecast extremes...lol

[ConvergenceZone]

Gator way to early to make this call....We still got another 6-8 weeks atleast left in this hurricane season.

Typically though, there's a sharp decline after the September 10th peak and it become less and less common for storms to form. I agree with gator. I'd say, if they don't get going by September 10th, it's a done deal... It's not as if all the sudden the conditions are going to magically change in the Atlantic, when overall, they haven't looked that bad and storms STILL haven't come together in spite of the conditions looking good. Those conditions may not look as good a month from now...

[ConvergenceZone]

I also think more people think the season is dead than want to admit because they will get chewed up spit out and frowned upon on this board. At least Gatorcane has the gusts to post what he feels. By Sept 15th I'll probably feel the same if nothing pops soon.

What's comical to me is when people make predictions on September and October being super active and the flood gates opening etc, nobody says anything, but boy if you say that you think season isn't going to amount to anything, and it's going to be a short season, then you feel like you just cursed somebody's family based on some of the responses you get.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank you...look people, its september almost
and look how everything is dying. Let's be realistic.
We can't look at a cold cup of coffee and say boy that is
the warmest coffee ive ever had.
This season is busting. 1930s following 1933 did the same thing.
It's all cycles.

This just Sucks. My Whole Weather hobby has been eaten!

Posts like this make me sad. They also make me angry.

For the love of God, a lull in late August does not mean the season is dead! Look at 1961, 1985, and 2000!

Those years you mentioned aren't 2007 though. Just because those seasons sprung to life in the late season, means absolutely nothing with regards to 2007...Did you make that same post last year too around this time??? Were you right then? There can be many dry years just like many wet years. I don't understand what the big deal is believing the season is going to be one of those dry years....

[wxmann_91]

I wouldn't have argued against this post last year. B/C El Nino was clearly setting in and shear was going to clearly start becoming a problem in late September.

But again, instability becomes much less of an issue in the late season. The shear is the biggest question mark after Sept 15. Get rid of the shear, you're going to get active in the late season.

[TSmith274]

The only thing that bothers me about seasons like this is that it shows how far long-term forecasting has to go. We just aren't very good at it. It's really as simple as that.

Otherwise, I like slow seasons. Or, maybe I should say I like seasons with very few to no landfalls. I still enjoy tracking them.