Look at those Atlantic Anomalies

[Evil Jeremy]

Does anyone here have the anomalies chart from 2005 for comparison?

[RattleMan]

Does anyone here have the anomalies chart from 2005 for comparison?

Here is a chart for 1/22/2005 and 1/20/2007.

2005: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2005.gif

2007: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2007.gif

And a bonus, 1/21/2006: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2006.gif

[Cyclone1]

2007 looks warmer than both of those, specifically near the east coast.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Story from the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel about the relationship between warm seas and hurricane intensity, landfall frequency

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 7466.story

[cycloneye]

Here is what the SSTAS where doing in late January 2005.Most of the Atlantic was very warm.

[Javlin]

Does anyone here have the anomalies chart from 2005 for comparison?

Here is a chart for 1/22/2005 and 1/20/2007.

2005: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2005.gif

2007: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2007.gif

And a bonus, 1/21/2006: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2006.gif

In comparison 07 looks much warmer on the Atl side while the Pac looks much cooler.We have another low coming up from the Brownsville area coming up at the NGOM.It seems like every 2-4 days these guys are coming for the last month now,definitly in some kind of pattern.I just cannot remember if we got this much percipitation in 05 only snow on Christmas Day.

[cycloneye]

Very warm in the Eastern Atlantic=+2.0c.In the rest of the basin,pretty above average sstas are seen.

[KWT]

What is the MDR currently at in terms of SSTA?
A little guess would probably be 0.3C above but away from the far E.Atlantic the tropics aren't massivly above average compared to what developed in 05...but given we have a strong la nina I wouldn't be surrpsied if those anomalies increase.

Good job the band beteen 30-40N of above average SSTA aren't between 10-20N cause that would have been very interesting.

[MGC]

The SST will be warm enough for TC formation come the first of June. Every winter it is the same ole story on SSTA. The basin will be plenty warm in a few months.......MGC

[Dionne]

42059 SST was 79.5F today. Isn't that just under the magic number for a threshold?

[MiamiensisWx]

I totally expect this season to be closer to 2004 and 2005 The odds are against a 3peat of what we've had lately.And the US will get struck by at least one major 'cane

I've been laughing at this post.

Clarification: This post was sarcastic, but I wasn't personally attacking you. I just disagree with your forecast. For example, the number of United States landfalls during 2004-2005 was unprecedented. It was rare. It should not be expected during every season.

If you think my post was insulting, then I respect your opinion. It wasn't an intentional personal attack; it was a rebuttal of your premise that we will see total landfalls on par with 2004-2005 in the United States.

[canegrl04]

I totally expect this season to be closer to 2004 and 2005 The odds are against a 3peat of what we've had lately.And the US will get struck by at least one major 'cane

I've been laughing at this post.

One too many weather snobs on this forum for my taste

[MiamiensisWx]

One too many weather snobs on this forum for my taste

My post wasn't snobby; it was common sense. The number of United States landfalls during 2004-2005 was unprecedented. It was rare. It should not be expected during every season.

If you think my post was insulting, then I respect your opinion. It wasn't an intentional personal attack; it was a rebuttal of your premise that we will see total landfalls on par with 2004-2005 in the United States.

[Squarethecircle]

It was rather harsh of you, Miami.

But we must stay on topic.

[Tampa_God]

One too many weather snobs on this forum for my taste

My post wasn't snobby; it was common sense. The number of United States landfalls during 2004-2005 was unprecedented. It was rare. It should not be expected during every season.

This put it this way, this season can either be above average, below average, or average.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the anomalies in the Atlantic Basin show a warmer than normal sstas except in the MDR area.

[x-y-no]

Wow that anomaly at the Africa coast is pretty spectacular.

Also interesting how warm the area off Europe is - wonder if that won't have an impact on the strenth of the Azores high as time goes on.

[Pedro Fernández]

I think the persistence of anticyclonic conditions over eastern Atlantic is the main reason for that positive anomaly... Mediterranean Sea catches up its highest temperature in August, when anticyclonic conditions are dominating weather in Europe and air temperatures are the highest as well. I will never forget 2003 summer, when the highest SSTs in the Mediterranean Sea caught up values >35ºC

Some meteorologists were worried about an autumn characterised by torrential rains... Although it never occurred after that...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

perhaps an active season

[boca]

Just because the SST's are above average doesn't mean an above average season although it does help. The other factors are wind shear and the amount of SAL that comes off Africa. the water temps could be 85 degrees but if theirs dry air convection will not get going.