ACE 2008 numbers=ATL=144.505 / EPAC=81.6125

[El Nino]

I just made some calculation until D5, based on NHC forecasts. Here is the ACE on these 5 days

Hanna : 4.86
Ike : 22.09
Josephine : 3.73

Which will make from the beginning :

Hanna : 12.34
Ike : 29.03
Josephine : 5.71

And the ACE at D5 will be 113.31

And Ike just beat Bertha at this moment. At the end of their path, we could expect something like 125, maybe more.

[RattleMan]

As I've been busy until now, here's 04/1500z stats; Atlantic is now 29.1975 ahead of the EPAC:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.96%
   Bertha   28.3675   35.19%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.80%
   Dolly   5.3125   6.59%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.89%
   Fay   6.715   8.33%
   Gustav   18.455   22.89%
   Hanna   7.485   9.28%
   Ike   6.94   8.61%
   Josephine   1.985   2.46%
   TOTAL   80.62   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[cycloneye]

There is no way now that the EPAC will pass the Atlantic in ACE numbers.

[RattleMan]

04/2100z update.

Get the current Excel spreadsheet, including Ike extended data, plus Hanna and Josephine here:

http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?bstcpgaaeaa

ACE is now 30.9825 ahead of the EPAC:

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.94%
   Bertha   28.3675   34.42%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.71%
   Dolly   5.3125   6.45%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.85%
   Fay   6.715   8.15%
   Gustav   18.455   22.40%
   Hanna   7.7875   9.45%
   Ike   8.2625   10.03%
   Josephine   2.145   2.60%
   TOTAL   82.405   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[KWT]

Ike really pushing up the numbers in a big way, well on target for us to finish above 2003 at this rate, Isabel did add some huge numbers though in mid September, though we are decently ahead of 2003 at this stage, Isabel eventually raises 2003 towards roughly 125 by the 20th.

Much depends on what Ike does and whether we can get another Cape Verde system or not before October and the CV season shuts down.

[RattleMan]

05/0300z, Atlantic is 32.7675 ahead of EPAC:

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   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.92%
   Bertha   28.3675   33.69%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.63%
   Dolly   5.3125   6.31%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.81%
   Fay   6.715   7.98%
   Gustav   18.455   21.92%
   Hanna   8.09   9.61%
   Ike   9.585   11.38%
   Josephine   2.305   2.74%
   TOTAL   84.19   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE numbers as of the 5 AM EDT advisories of Hanna,Ike and Josephine.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 8.3925
09L (Ike) Operational 10.7950
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.5075
Total  85.905


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE numbers for the Atlantic 2008 season as of the 11 AM EDT advisories on Hanna,Ike and Josephine.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 8.6950
09L (Ike) Operational 11.8975
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.6675
Total  87.47


[senorpepr]

76.5025 is about 87% of a full, normal season. At this time, 2008 ranks 72nd overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighed upon activity thus far, we should end up around 162, or 185% of normal. That would rank 2008 as 20th most active.

NTC based on normal activity through today is about 193%.

Here's an update based at 5 Sept / 1500 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 59/15.5/4.5 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 203%.

ACE is currently 87.47, which is 99.97% of a full, normal season. At this time, 2008 ranks 64th overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 180, or 205% of normal, ranking us at 13th all-time.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is it normal for the eastern Pacific ACE to be so much lower than the Atlantic? I thought it was usually a bit higher. In fact 1992 blows 2005 away in terms of ACE at 262 vs 248. If you include the ones in the Central Pacific, then the ACE was 295.5.

I'm just trying to make this years epacific season feel more pathetic so it will steal more waves from the Atlantic

[KWT]

senorpepr, yep at the current rate its going to be very close as to whether we can get into the top 10 or not...

Its amazing to think we've done a full season of ACE pretty much on the 5th of September and beaten numerous seasons already!

[RattleMan]

05/2100z stats, Atlantic is 37.53 ahead of EPAC:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.87%
   Bertha   28.3675   31.89%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.44%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.97%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.72%
   Fay   6.715   7.55%
   Gustav   18.455   20.75%
   Hanna   9.055   10.18%
   Ike   12.8975   14.50%
   Josephine   2.79   3.14%
   TOTAL   88.9525   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[El Nino]

Ike will beat Gustav on sunday morning.
For Bertha, we have to wait but in 4 days I think it will be the case. And if it's a long tracker in the GOM, which can NOT be out of question, we could expect a really high ACE, but an estimation is quite difficult for the moment.

[RattleMan]

06/0300z. Josephine is now a TD and will no longer be contributing to the ACE for now. Atlantic is 38.89 ahead of EPAC:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.86%
   Bertha   28.3675   31.41%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.39%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.88%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.69%
   Fay   6.715   7.44%
   Gustav   18.455   20.43%
   Hanna   9.415   10.42%
   Ike   13.8975   15.39%
   Josephine   2.79   3.09%
   TOTAL   90.3125   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[Ptarmigan]

Is it normal for the eastern Pacific ACE to be so much lower than the Atlantic? I thought it was usually a bit higher. In fact 1992 blows 2005 away in terms of ACE at 262 vs 248. If you include the ones in the Central Pacific, then the ACE was 295.5.

I'm just trying to make this years epacific season feel more pathetic so it will steal more waves from the Atlantic

Going back to 1971 when reliable records were kept for East Pacific, the ACE on average is higher than Atlantic ACE if you go back that year. When Atlantic is more active, the East Pacific is less active. In 1977, both East Pacific and Atlantic were below average. Same went with the West Pacific. 1992 for East Pacific was very active due to a persistant El Nino.

[RattleMan]

06/0900z, Atlantic leads by 40.14:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.84%
   Bertha   28.3675   30.98%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.34%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.80%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.67%
   Fay   6.715   7.33%
   Gustav   18.455   20.16%
   Hanna   9.665   10.56%
   Ike   14.8975   16.27%
   Josephine   2.79   3.05%
   TOTAL   91.5625   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[cycloneye]

Updated ACE numbers as of the 11 AM EDT advisories on Hanna and Ike.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Best track 0.7725
02L (Bertha) Operational 28.3675
03L (Cristobal) Operational 3.0600
04L (Dolly) Operational 5.3125
05L (Edouard) Operational 1.5275
06L (Fay) Operational 6.7150
07L (Gustav) Operational 18.4550
08L (Hanna) Operational 9.9150
09L (Ike) Operational 15.8000
10L (Josephine) Operational 2.7900
Total  92.715


[RattleMan]

06/2100z, Atlantic is 42.77 ahead:

Code: Select all

   Atlantic      % of
   Seasonal ACE      Total
         
BT   Arthur   0.7725   0.82%
   Bertha   28.3675   30.12%
   Cristobal   3.06   3.25%
   Dolly   5.3125   5.64%
   Edouard   1.5275   1.62%
   Fay   6.715   7.13%
   Gustav   18.455   19.59%
   Hanna   10.07   10.69%
   Ike   17.1225   18.18%
   Josephine   2.79   2.96%
   TOTAL   94.1925   
         
         
   East Pacific      
   Seasonal ACE      
BT   Alma   0.83   1.61%
   Boris   7.025   13.66%
   Cristina   1.21   2.35%
   Douglas   0.49   0.95%
   Elida   11.7375   22.83%
   Fausto   10.125   19.69%
   Genevieve   5.76   11.20%
   Hernan   11.65   22.66%
   Iselle   1.295   2.52%
   Julio   1.1775   2.29%
   Karina   0.1225   0.24%
   TOTAL   51.4225   


[senorpepr]

Here's an update based at 6 Sept / 2100 UTC.

Currently, we're 10/5/3 for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. 61.75/16.75/5.5 are the tallies for days. NTC based on normal activity through today is about 198%.

ACE is currently 94.1925, which is about 108% of a full, normal season. At this time, 2008 ranks 52nd overall for most ACE. Projecting climatologically, but weighted upon activity thus far, we should end up around 179, or 205% of normal, ranking us at 13th all-time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that at least 2 points of Gustav's ace will be removed from it when this season is over. Much of its trip over the gulf could of been 5-10 knots lower then currently shown by the TPC.

I also Believe that Ike was likely 130-135 knots for a time. Not that we will ever know if that is true or not.