Season Cancel!

[ConvergenceZone]

With that persistent east coast trough, and if it continues It'll be darn possible that Florida sees snow this winter

Yep, early Fall weather coming to California next week. Since the tropics are almost dead now, I usually start following Winter Storms....
Remember the years when September use to be the month when the tropics started to really crank up? Boy have times changed....

[gilbert88]

With that persistent east coast trough, and if it continues It'll be darn possible that Florida sees snow this winter

Yep, early Fall weather coming to California next week. Since the tropics are almost dead now, I usually start following Winter Storms....
Remember the years when September use to be the month when the tropics started to really crank up? Boy have times changed....

What are you talking about? September is the most active month in a majority of hurricane seasons, including LAST YEAR.

Yes, those of us who live in hurricane-prone areas do remember about those years, thank you very much.

[ConvergenceZone]

With that persistent east coast trough, and if it continues It'll be darn possible that Florida sees snow this winter

Yep, early Fall weather coming to California next week. Since the tropics are almost dead now, I usually start following Winter Storms....
Remember the years when September use to be the month when the tropics started to really crank up? Boy have times changed....

What are you talking about? September is the most active month in a majority of hurricane seasons, including LAST YEAR.
Yes, those of us who live in hurricane-prone areas do remember about those years, thank you very much.

but what about September this year? Where are all the hurricanes and all of the people who said "wait until September"? Just a couple of storms heading out to sea, but that's about it....

[rainstorm]

another hazel lurking?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Weatherbell Video: Is a A Hazel lurking in Oct. L-R below map in 10 days, map Oct 7 1954, map Oct 14 1954 pic.twitter.com/BGXM0vfJ
40 minutes ago
»

['CaneFreak]

Yep...another Hazel lurking in between his ears

It was a pleasure...see you next season!

another hazel lurking?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Weatherbell Video: Is a A Hazel lurking in Oct. L-R below map in 10 days, map Oct 7 1954, map Oct 14 1954 pic.twitter.com/BGXM0vfJ
40 minutes ago
»

[somethingfunny]

another hazel lurking?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Weatherbell Video: Is a A Hazel lurking in Oct. L-R below map in 10 days, map Oct 7 1954, map Oct 14 1954 pic.twitter.com/BGXM0vfJ
40 minutes ago
»

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep...another Hazel lurking in between his ears

It was a pleasure...see you next season!

another hazel lurking?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Weatherbell Video: Is a A Hazel lurking in Oct. L-R below map in 10 days, map Oct 7 1954, map Oct 14 1954 pic.twitter.com/BGXM0vfJ
40 minutes ago
»

Yep, you can tell when the season is coming to a close because the tropical board completely dries up(as far as posts go)....See you all next season!

[otowntiger]

another hazel lurking?

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Weatherbell Video: Is a A Hazel lurking in Oct. L-R below map in 10 days, map Oct 7 1954, map Oct 14 1954 pic.twitter.com/BGXM0vfJ
40 minutes ago
»

Yeah, if Bastardi is hyping something it must really mean something, because he NEVER hypes anything. I can't even recall when he ever hyped something that didn't come to pass.

[psyclone]

that cold front on the way is no joke. lows expected in the 40's in the panhandle with 60's well down the peninsula along with the first hardcore scouring out of summer humidity. the giant sucking sound this weekend is the oceanic heat content leaving the northern gulf. we don't need a cane to remove excess ocean heat... winter takes care of that just fine. it's gonna take the airmass awhile to recover from this one and should these fronts start hitting on a routine basis that would pretty much wipe out a tropical threat for the conus outside of perhaps south florida imo. otoh, if we go awhile without another significant front, the original front could actually provide the spark to get a storm going. as always its hurry up and wait but the intensity of this front this early is noteworthy imo.

[DanKellFla]

I think of the first cold front as a milestone in my hurricane season. Now, If one comes my way the clean-up will be done in more managable temperatures. I can deal with the storms as a part of life. But my family without A/C is what I truly dislike.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm actually keeping an eye on the rest of the activity this season, because if it's very minimal
we'll have this year to give an example of for those that insist on saying, "just wait until september, activity will explode". lol.....

My point being is that just because it's september, it doesn't mean it's going to get active. There have been plenty of other seasons where the activity just died out, with a straggler storm in October or November. The "wait until september" posts get very old and tiring....

Yes, it's typically a busier month, but it doesn't always end up that way. That's all I"m saying....

[Steve H.]

I actually think that we will see an unusually busy mid to late October active Atlantic basin tropical period. Temps are still high in the Caribbean. I expect 1 or 2 hurricanes coming out of this area. Not an official forecast mind you. But the conditions that exist could very well produce such an outcome.

[cycloneye]

After all of what has occured with some wimpy storms,the 2011 Atlantic season is getting closer to be above normal in the ACE department and that is not bad at all in my book. (See Ace Thread) And having three majors is above the average.

[ConvergenceZone]

I actually think that we will see an unusually busy mid to late October active Atlantic basin tropical period. Temps are still high in the Caribbean. I expect 1 or 2 hurricanes coming out of this area. Not an official forecast mind you. But the conditions that exist could very well produce such an outcome.

I disagree. We've been waiting for a long time for something to get going in the Carib and the conditions just aren't there...By the time mid to late October comes, shear will probably increase. I can already feel Winter in the air and I think the season will shut off early. That's not to say there might not be a depression or tropical storms that manages to get its act together, before the typical shear or dry air rips it apart....

[psyclone]

I actually think that we will see an unusually busy mid to late October active Atlantic basin tropical period. Temps are still high in the Caribbean. I expect 1 or 2 hurricanes coming out of this area. Not an official forecast mind you. But the conditions that exist could very well produce such an outcome.

I disagree. We've been waiting for a long time for something to get going in the Carib and the conditions just aren't there...By the time mid to late October comes, shear will probably increase. I can already feel Winter in the air and I think the season will shut off early. That's not to say there might not be a depression or tropical storms that manages to get its act together, before the typical shear or dry air rips it apart....

the truth is it's just too soon to know. October is a big hurricane month in the western carib in la nina years so place your bets and let it ride. even if that region produces a big late season cane, it could easily miss the US and cross cuba and the bahamas ala michelle.

[Frank2]

Right now the season only seems to exist east of 60W, though only God can say "season cancel" (though that's pretty bad English - lol), but right now, if things remain the same, that's a pretty reasonable statement, and we should be glad...

Without FEMA money, an Andrew or Katrina this season would have been disasterous in many ways, as the Irene victims know - many are unable to repair their houses because they might not have enough insurance and FEMA money is not available...

I've spent the past 6 months in and out of doctor's offices and hospitals, and whether I'll see next hurricane season, God also only knows that answer, so enjoy the "off-season" - but when that will start for certain, only God knows that answer, too (lol), since as we all know Wilma wasn't until late October...

Frank

[HurricaneRyan]

Ophelia was a strong fighter and she managed to come back stronger than ever just like Britney Spears. THAT makes me certain we will have at least one more hurricane come out of this season...hopefully Rina to continue with the Girl-Power of this season.

[HurrMark]

I know this is a bold statement, and this is not coming from anyone but me, but I really think that the US, outside Irene and to a lesser degree Lee, dodged yet another bullet this year overall. I don't know if it's God on our side, climate change, or just extreme luck, but the fact that we have had since Hurricane Ike in 2008 51 named storms, yet only one hurricane and a few TSs making landfall in the US is just amazing and unprecedented...not to mention the fact that it has been six years since a major hurricane making landfall...soon to be seven if things continue as they are...the first time since essentially the Civil War, is truly remarkable (I know Ike was not your "garden variety" Cat 2 and we can debate this all we want...but statistically speaking, it was still a 2 at landfall).

I have pointed out multiple times that in this period of "hyperactivity" starting in 1995, the United States has been spared so much. If you discount 2004 and 2005, there have only been three Cat-3 hurricanes making landfall in this entire period...Opal, Fran, and Bret (the last of the three affected more cows than people)...and even if you include 2004 and 2005, we have only had ten major hurricanes making landfall in the US and only five seasons with major landfalls. The long term average (per Gray and Klotzbach) is 52% per season, so at 29%, we are far below average despite the increased number of storms. Here is a telling stat...in this "hyperactive" period of the last 17 years, we have had five years with no hurricane landfalls, and four with only one category one hurricane. Yes, there have been many horrific storms, but it could have been far worse. Just as a point of reference, during the last "busy" period...from 1938 to 1960, a period of 23 years, only two had no hurricane landfalls, and only three had one cat-one storm. I wonder if anyone has studied overall pattern changes, and has an understanding of why it is far more difficult for hurricanes to affect the US now than in the past. It would be interesting to find out...


In terms of the rest of the season, I think (not official, my disclaimer) that the East Coast north of Florida is probably closed, and probably the western Gulf outside Mexico. Not saying there will not be any more activity...I think we will have another good run in October, and possibly challenge the Greek alphabet. But I just don't see a change in the pattern, and if we get through the first week or two of October without anything threateing, the chances of any major threat diminish dramatically. Anything that could threaten the US would probably come from the Caribbean, and there is nothing out there in model land hinting of a system in that part of the world in the period before la-la-land.

[jinftl]

Excerpt from Crownweather Discussion this morning...talk of development more than a week out is of course subject to change, but something of a pattern change that would tend to support development in the climatologically favored region for development in October...the western Caribbean....is at least enough to hold off posting the Season Cancel sign in either the U.S. or the Caribbean and Central America just yet...


I still believe that we may see development in the Caribbean, particularly the western Caribbean, starting as early as next weekend. Strong high pressure is expected to build over New England late next week; these types of high pressure systems typically lead to much lower pressures in the Caribbean. In addition, the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move into the Caribbean between October 10 and October 15. Given the overall pattern recognition signs that are there, I think we will see tropical cyclone development either somewhere in the central and western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico and the central & southeastern Bahamas between October 9 and October 18.

Both the GFS and European model guidance are going back and forth regarding development in this area. Yesterday’s 12Z GFS model run indicated that tropical development may start occurring right around October 10 and 11 in the southwest Caribbean. This forecast system then festers in the western Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands right through October 16. The latest 00Z GFS model run forecasts that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the southwest Caribbean between October 10 and October 12. This developing tropical cyclone is then pulled north-northeastward across Jamaica around October 15 and then is forecast to be near eastern Cuba by October 16.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[WeatherGuesser]

I really wish people would leave religion out of these posts.