Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[Dean4Storms]

GFS does nothing with that low through 132 hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS does nothing with that low through 126 hrs.

probably shears it out

[tropicwatch]

TD yes TS no, either way looks like weak steering currents for a couple of days for the remnants of Barbara to get her act together next week.

[Dean4Storms]

Haven't looked but I'm betting the shear is just too much for development.

[Hurricaneman]

I'll say this, but if this doesnt become a storm, I say we'll have to wait until mid July which is cool with me

[jlauderdal]

I'll say this, but if this doesnt become a storm, I say we'll have to wait until mid July which is cool with me

6 week forecasts are cool with me

[Aric Dunn]

Appears at least right now the circulation is intact and about 8 hours ahead of nhc track. will be offshore in the next couple hours. convection firing offshore. could be our first td of the year.

went the one area that has a break in the mountains. could not have gone through a better way. im curious if the nhc is rooting for it to open to a wave so to not have to keep the name barbara( from what i read they keep the name as long as the circ does not open) ?

[dexterlabio]

We might not have to wait for development as Barbara could be the named tropical cyclone we've all been waiting for...

[N2FSU]

From the 5am NHC Discussion:

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.

[cycloneye]

Discussion this morning by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7366

[OuterBanker]

Very interesting. The change is already evident. Even is Barbara does not regenerate the floater has changed to the North Atlantic.

[NDG]

Very interesting indeed in that the circulation at least in around H85 is still in tact and about to emerge into the BOC.
During the day lets see if it stays intact and the surface circulation does indeed still exists as it gets back over water.

[NDG]

I was just looking at the UL winds forecast, if it stays downs in the BOC below the 22nd or 23rd latitude it will have a better chance of surviving over the next 3-4 days away from the stronger shear from the middle of the GOM on northward. If it keeps moving northward over the next couple of days it will not have a chance to survive.

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS brings it into Pensacola next weekend as a robust Tropical Storm.....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Hurricaneman]

Thats not something you see every year, the first Atlantic name starts with a B

[gatorcane]

06z GFS brings it into Pensacola next weekend as a robust Tropical Storm.....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also note the ECMWF doesn't do much with this system. Given the strong shear just to the north of the system and dry air that is pushing south and east into the Gulf, I think the ECMWF has the solution correct at this time which is calling for no development of this system.

[Dean4Storms]

GGEM 00z run also develops it and takes it into Florida north of Tampa as a Tropical Storm next weekend......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[tropicwatch]

It might not develop but I hope the models are right about it coming north. We sure could use the rain in the panhandle.

[Javlin]

The conditions in the GOM as presented are occurring now what about 48-72 hrs?I have to concur though I really cannot see this really developing so much ATM but shoot I am wrong more often than right.

[N2FSU]

NHC now calls for the quick demise of what's left of Barbara. From the 11am discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.