Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco

Regardless of it`s eventual development, trends are pointing
towards a period of heavy rainfall across South Florida starting
late Sunday Night, raising the concern for flooding over the
region. Given the direction of approach from the system, favorable
shear will exist across the region, with a threat for isolated
tornadoes during the same time frame.

In terms of sensible weather, deep tropical moisture will begin to
increase on Sunday, with PWATs climbing over 2", as prevailing flow
shifts more southerly. Convection looks to still be driven by the
development of both seabreezes into the afternoon, with the moist
and unstable atmosphere bringing numerous to widespread showers
and storms. Widespread showers and scattered storms then look to
overspread the region from Sunday Night through at least mid-week.

[psyclone]

I completely agree with Levi's update. Makes perfect sense and fits climo. We get either a slug of moisture, a TD or a weak TS with the impact being similar regardless. A boatload of rain, some svr wx potential, tides a couple feet (perhaps 3 or 4 feet in favored locations) with attendant minor coastal flooding/erosion issues. BTW a look at this morning's graphical marine forecast again provides clues as to where the worst weather is anticipated...and that looks to be southwest florida around Ft Myers. this looks to be a good distance southeast of where they have the low...which illustrates something we all know...in sheared systems the worst weather is often displaced (sometimes meaningfully) from the center.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

A mild hint by Dr Blake in a tweet but doesn't go as far to say when it will be a invest.

@EricBlake12 · 6m6 minutes ago

NW Caribbean system already has some shape- looks like an interesting weekend for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear has went down quite a bit around this area they are watching. Interesting because it already looks like it is organizing.

[RL3AO]

A mild hint by Dr Blake in a tweet but doesn't go as far to say when it will be a invest.

@EricBlake12 · 6m6 minutes ago

NW Caribbean system already has some shape- looks like an interesting weekend for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida!

I suspect it will be an invest this afternoon (no inside knowledge...just a guess after talking with a few specialists today).

[northjaxpro]

Actually, the disturbed area has been in the organizing phase since late yesterday. Based on current trends, I agree that we will probably have Invest 93L, possibly by this evening.

[psyclone]

yeah they should tag this anytime now. we'll probably have a cherry (high likelihood of development) later today too.

[StormHunter72]

Actually, the disturbed area has been in the organizing phase since late yesterday. Based on current trends, I agree that we will probably have Invest 93L, possibly by this evening.

I agree maybe by two.

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS repeating previous runs with a center landfall around the Tampa Bay area, with most energy displaced off to the east.

[cycloneye]

Dr Blake in response to Levi's video answers this.Dang!

EricBlake12 · 8m8 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits FYI there are some surface SW winds from a buoy.. !

[cycloneye]

The wheels are moving fast. Now instead of first mission on Sunday it will be on Saturday.(If needed) My % now increases to 95% of having the invest this afternoon or evening.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1500Z
D. 18.0N 87.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z
NEAR 22.5N 88.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[RL3AO]

The flight for tomorrow seems to be a "just in case" flight. Odds are it won't fly.

[SFLcane]

Fim..

[caneman]

I might take that bet against you, it seems to be ramping rather quickly

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be ramping up a little faster than modeled, could be a pretty good tropical storm by monday morning before shear gets a hold of it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WPBWeather]

Fim..

My old friend Mr. FIM. He always seems a bit overdone and a little right or left of the other models.

[WeatherEmperor]

Fim stands alone as being the furthest south hitting ft meyers with the worst weather over south florida. All the others show Tampa/ Big Bend landfall. Interesting...

Fim..

[alienstorm]

If you look at the water vapor image you can see a anticyclone developing over it. Ingredients coming together.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS looks to have been a touch stronger at peak compared to the 00z, and 06z runs.

[alienstorm]

Note: Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril Jamaica

Westerly wind component.


06 03 9:50 am WNW 5.8 7.8 3.9 7 5.5 E 29.96 +0.05 76.5 82.9 74.7 - - -
06 03 8:50 am SW 1.9 3.9 4.6 8 5.5 ESE 29.96 +0.09 75.4 82.8 74.3 - - -
06 03 7:50 am SW 13.6 19.4 4.3 8 5.5 SE 29.92 +0.05 74.8 82.9 73.9 - - -
06 03 6:50 am WSW 7.8 13.6 4.6 8 5.6 SE 29.90 +0.04 75.7 81.9 75.2 - - -
06 03 5:50 am WNW 1.9 3.9 4.6 8 5.6 SE 29.87 -0.01 75.0 82.6 74.1 - -