Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[stormlover2013]

This will be a very good rain maker!!! Be careful on the roads

[psyclone]

Flood watch for the nature coast with some eye popping rain estimates:
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN
FLORIDA...COASTAL LEVY AND INLAND LEVY. IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...COASTAL CITRUS...COASTAL HERNANDO...COASTAL PASCO...
INLAND CITRUS...INLAND HERNANDO AND INLAND PASCO.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH 10 TO 15
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

[cycloneye]

SSD has put up a Invest floater but ATCF has not designated it as Invest98L.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/

[tropicwatch]

I imagine some warnings will be going up for Franklin County. Apalachicola has got the rain train going on right now. North to south of course.

[Ivanhater]

This will slide west along the northern gulf coast. Insane rain totals expected along the northern gulf coast

[JtSmarts]

Any thoughts from our resident mets?

[Dean4Storms]

Well even if this did get tagged a TC it looks like it would never be much more than a heavy rain threat with maybe some gales as it is just to close to land.

With all the models abandoning TC development I can see why the NHC lowered the chance.

[floridasun78]

Well even if this did get tagged a TC it looks like it would never be much more than a heavy rain threat with maybe some gales as it is just to close to land.

With all the models abandoning TC development I can see why the NHC lowered the chance.

i see more of any thing as rainy maker ((The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.))

[KatDaddy]

Looking a little better this afternoon and looks to become a huge rainmaker event along the N and NE GOM. Thankfully its not well offshore in the GOM and remains close to land.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like the center of the Vort is now inland maybe near Perry, FL at some point it is expected to turn back westward and looks like it stays inland if it does so.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ATCcane]

This will slide west along the northern gulf coast. Insane rain totals expected along the northern gulf coast

Come on Michael, You should know to post the disclaimer

Ummm.....


viewtopic.php?f=37&p=2511428#p2511428

[NDG]

Circulation is not at the surface yet per surface reports, pressures have fallen a little during the past 24-48 hrs but still fairly high. Big outflow boundary went through Tampa before the squall line came through thus the squall died out, same thing here in Orlando.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation is not at the surface yet per surface reports, pressures have fallen a little during the past 24-48 hrs but still fairly high. Big outflow boundary went through Tampa before the squall line came through thus the squall died out, same thing here in Orlando.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia067/CODNEXLAB-1km-Florida-rad-ani24-201608062115-100-100-raw_zpsxqgsdfms.gif[/mg]

The surface circ is there just very broad and elongated so looking at radar from multiple site and at different level in the atmosphere will make such a not stacked system look really disorganized( which is still but getting better)

[NDG]

Circulation is not at the surface yet per surface reports, pressures have fallen a little during the past 24-48 hrs but still fairly high. Big outflow boundary went through Tampa before the squall line came through thus the squall died out, same thing here in Orlando.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia067/CODNEXLAB-1km-Florida-rad-ani24-201608062115-100-100-raw_zpsxqgsdfms.gif[/mg]

The surface circ is there just very broad and elongated so looking at radar from multiple site and at different level in the atmosphere will make such a not stacked system look really disorganized( which is still but getting better)

All the outflows including along the FL Panhandle to the big bend area is a good indication that the circulation is above the surface at the moment. IMO.

[tolakram]

This will slide west along the northern gulf coast. Insane rain totals expected along the northern gulf coast

Come on Michael, You should know to post the disclaimer

Disclaimer is no longer required, there's a sticky post updating the rule.

[northjaxpro]

NHC still has yet to officially classify this system as 98L. I wonder if they will finally do it or are they seeing that this system being too close to land will keep them from classifying this system?

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation is not at the surface yet per surface reports, pressures have fallen a little during the past 24-48 hrs but still fairly high. Big outflow boundary went through Tampa before the squall line came through thus the squall died out, same thing here in Orlando.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia067/CODNEXLAB-1km-Florida-rad-ani24-201608062115-100-100-raw_zpsxqgsdfms.gif[/mg]

The surface circ is there just very broad and elongated so looking at radar from multiple site and at different level in the atmosphere will make such a not stacked system look really disorganized( which is still but getting better)

All the outflows including along the FL Panhandle to the big bend area is a good indication that the circulation is above the surface at the moment. IMO.

yeah this happens all the time when a system is forming near the coast. the sea breezes and constant collapsing of convection ( with outflow boundaries) always get brought up. right now the system is not organized enough to effect the sea breezes as they have more energy localized than the broad weak systems. not until the pressure can drop enough will that stop.

[NDG]

The surface circ is there just very broad and elongated so looking at radar from multiple site and at different level in the atmosphere will make such a not stacked system look really disorganized( which is still but getting better)

All the outflows including along the FL Panhandle to the big bend area is a good indication that the circulation is above the surface at the moment. IMO.

yeah this happens all the time when a system is forming near the coast. the sea breezes and constant collapsing of convection ( with outflow boundaries) always get brought up. right now the system is not organized enough to effect the sea breezes as they have more energy localized than the broad weak systems. not until the pressure can drop enough will that stop.

I agree, it makes sense. Even on vis satellite loop it makes it look like we have rebust surface circulation but is not there yet.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah this happens all the time when a system is forming near the coast. the sea breezes and constant collapsing of convection ( with outflow boundaries) always get brought up. right now the system is not organized enough to effect the sea breezes as they have more energy localized than the broad weak systems. not until the pressure can drop enough will that stop.

I agree, it makes sense. Even on vis satellite loop it makes it look like we have rebust surface circulation but is not there yet.

Typically what happens is during the day it looks like we lose the surface circ do to all the sea breezes and outflows. but its still there in a broad sense and during the night when the heat energy from the sun is gone and temperature gradient equalizes we see circulations become more defined again.

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully it gets classified as 98L or 99L soon just so that we can get more model runs...