Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[chaser1]

I mean 99L hanging around in 10 days. Unless it parks itself in the GOM for 5 days. I think not

Are you kidding? This damn system is gonna be around in December, AFTER the 3rd or 4th cold front will have come and gone. 99L will haunt us all and never ever leave

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I mean 99L hanging around in 10 days. Unless it parks itself in the GOM for 5 days. I think not

Are you kidding? This damn system is gonna be around in December, AFTER the 3rd or 4th cold front will have come and gone. 99L will haunt us all and never ever leave

this storm i swear will lead to someone ending up comitted rocking back and forth in a padded cell "they said it would form" eyes all bugged out

[LarryWx]

I would take two things away from the models right now about this wave.

1) Development in the eastern Atlantic seems likely.
2) The large scale pattern supports a system that may be a tropical storm when hitting Cape Verde to get much further west than you would normally expect.

Note something very important that Luis mentioned: the trend has been for this pouch to come off Africa and cross the longitude of the CV's lower and lower over the last 24 hours of runs. On the 0Z GFS run of just 24 hours ago, it was to the north of the CV's near 19N. On the new 0Z run, it is coming across the CV's near 16.5 N or nearly 150 miles south. We still have another 10 runs or so before it even emerges from Africa. If it were to get down to below 15N when crossing the CV's, then it would be down to where several CV H's made it to 75W. I'm educatedly guessing that this will come down even further based on Pouch 25L's southern low being all of the way down to near 11N when it was near 1E. The models have been keying on the northern extension of this well north of the convection over Africa, which didn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[Siker]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[LarryWx]

About half of the 0Z GEFS 20 members hit the CONUS, both Gulf coast and east coast FL north, between 9/8 and 9/12.

[KWT]

Based on the models there seems a higher chance than normal for a CV type hit, its been a while.

ECM looks like a real us threat on its 00z run.

[PTrackerLA]

Yeah this wouldn't be good for the EC. Looks like the trough over the upper plains is lifting out at 240hrs instead of the one that pulls 99L up. So much will come down to timing that can't be seen this far out but it's been a while since we've seen something making it all the way across the Atlantic like this. It's going to be an interesting September folks.

8/28 00z Euro 240 hrs:

[Frank2]

If 25L is that strong more likely it will recurve into the mid-Atlantic weakness...

P.S. Not much left of 99L this morning...

[KWT]

Problem Frank there is NO mid Atlantic weakness by that point, a stout ridge builds in behind Gaston and keeps this going a long way west.

I think beyond 60W though there are still plenty of little lows and troughs about which may eventually open up a weakness for 25L. Whether or not it'll be too far west by that point who knows...

99L stalling out is probably the best chance we have, other than that it will come purely down to luck of the trough draw, we have really gotten away with in yhe last decade on that front (bar 2008), I hope that is not about to run out.

[Nimbus]

15N with ridging all the way across the Atlantic? Plenty of time for a TUTT to develop and send this fishing. If 99L spins up its likely to put some serious kinks in the jet stream on its way out.

[AJC3]

15N with ridging all the way across the Atlantic? Plenty of time for a TUTT to develop and send this fishing. If 99L spins up its likely to put some serious kinks in the jet stream on its way out.

While I know what you're trying to say here, the semi permanent mid-oceanic TUTT, or a TUTT low that may fracture off of it, has very little reflection down at 500 MB. It's more of a "shearing" feature rather than a "steering" feature. Almost always, breaches in the Atlantic ridge usually happen from amplification (digging) of a short wave trough emanating from north of the ridge. Of course, there is plenty of time for a breach of that nature to develop in the Atlantic ridge over the course of the next 10-14 days, which I think is the gist of what you were trying to say.

[KWT]

Yeah 99L will make some uncertainties thats for sure. Alot will depends on exact timings as per normal.

Anyway GFS 06z out to 144hrs and westward it goes, now down to 977mbs. Looks like its going to have a decent set-up to strengthen in.

With Gaston going the way it is, it'd make alot of sense if a upper ridge builds in its place and that should at least get 25L across to 55-60W. After that, it becomes less certain, though the models certainly seem to suggest stout ridging remains in place for the time time being.

[cycloneye]

931 mbs to move thru Northerrn Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Moving very close to BVI / U.S Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, (Thankfully)

[Blinhart]

I just hope it gets above 30N and never gets past 75W, but if this is a long tracker there goes everyone saying that we are in a dead period because the ACE will be climbing a whole lot if this pans out and stays below 20 N for most of its trip and somehow gets to 90W it will have a lot of hot water to feed off of.

[Blinhart]

Moving very close to BVI / U.S Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, (Thankfully)

Which one of those lows is 99L, the one just off the coast, the one in the middle or the one by Europe.

[cycloneye]

Moving very close to BVI / U.S Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, (Thankfully)

http://oi68.tinypic.com/2nronf9.jpg

Which one of those lows is 99L, the one just off the coast, the one in the middle or the one by Europe.

Low at 1015mbs.

[cycloneye]

There is the landfall.

[KWT]

Wow that is a beast of a storm, even AFTER the resolution drops we end up getting down to 936mbs!

At peak in high resolution at 240hrs it gets down to 916mbs which is probably cat-5 territory. I suspect that is overdone BUT we have seen countless major canes take the route that 25L is predicted and I'm struggling at the moment to see anything other than maybe the shortest of weaknesses to scoop it up and away.

Luckily plenty of time to go yet!

When is this going to be invested. Can they do it whilst it is still over land?

[abajan]

Moving very close to BVI / U.S Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, (Thankfully)

http://oi68.tinypic.com/2nronf9.jpg

Which one of those lows is 99L, the one just off the coast, the one in the middle or the one by Europe.

The 1015 mb one. The one out by Europe is Gaston.