Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Parallel has it moving inland just west of Galveston as a TS in 8 days (next Friday).

[ROCK]

12z Euro Parallel has it moving inland just west of Galveston as a TS in 8 days (next Friday).

Yep however IMO climo needs to be taken into account. It's June..smells like Mexico..to me..0z GFS or might shed some light..the Texas death ridge never breaks down this early.

[Dylan]

12z Euro Parallel has it moving inland just west of Galveston as a TS in 8 days (next Friday).

Yep, and a very large tropical storm at that, with tropical storm force winds as far to the east as the Mouth of the Mississippi River, and very squally weather even in New Orleans. This is the type of scenario that would cause a lot of coastal flooding for Louisiana's marshes and estuaries.

[weatherguy425]

12z Euro Parallel has it moving inland just west of Galveston as a TS in 8 days (next Friday).

Yep however IMO climo needs to be taken into account. It's June..smells like Mexico..to me..0z GFS or might shed some light..the Texas death ridge never breaks down this early.

June climatology doesn't tarnish a TX landfall. Not saying that's the outcome here, but citing June tropical history actually doesn't refute it a landfall north of Mexico.

[ROCK]

12z Navgem still won't budge on. FL panhandle scenario. Really blows it up. But it is the Nav.

[ROCK]

12z Euro Parallel has it moving inland just west of Galveston as a TS in 8 days (next Friday).

Yep however IMO climo needs to be taken into account. It's June..smells like Mexico..to me..0z GFS or might shed some light..the Texas death ridge never breaks down this early.

June climatology doesn't tarnish a TX landfall. Not saying that's the outcome here, but citing June tropical history actually doesn't refute it a landfall north of Mexico.

True that's why I said in my opinion. Euro been sniffing MX for awhile. Only have one run of the Euro showing TX. Have to see at 230am CST tonight if it sticks with it or goes back to MX. If this was Late August or Sept I might chew on NGOM.

[cycloneye]

As always Levi does great videos and here is a new one about this future system.Duration is 10:30.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... next-week/

[BobHarlem]

12z Navgem still won't budge on. FL panhandle scenario. Really blows it up. But it is the Nav.

The wave currently off of the north coast of Columbia is the biggest reason I have doubts on the Euro, it's what this and the GFS seems to be grabbing also. That area is a huge mess right now, so I don't trust any of the models, to be honest.

[wxman57]

12z Navgem still won't budge on. FL panhandle scenario. Really blows it up. But it is the Nav.

Remember always add 180 degrees to the predicted direction of the storm in the NAVGEM model. If NAVGEM says east, for example, it's moving west.

[wxman57]

As always Levi does great videos and here is a new one about this future system.Duration is 10:30.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... next-week/

Note that in the 18Z GFS, looking at the same 500mb chart Levi discussed, the GFS has the upper low in the SW Gulf farther southwest and the ridge extending farther east from Texas. Thus the shift westward with the low in the 18Z GFS run.

[NDG]

A closer look at today's 12z Euro, big system.

[sphelps8681]

When will the next update be? Tired of refreshing my screen.

[South Texas Storms]

When will the next update be? Tired of refreshing my screen.

The 0z GFS starts running in about an hour, with the Canadian and UKMET in about 2 hours, and the Euro in about 3.5 hours.

[ROCK]

When will the next update be? Tired of refreshing my screen.

The 0z GFS starts running in about an hour, with the Canadian and UKMET in about 2 hours, and the Euro in about 3.5 hours.

Oh the nights where I could stay up until 1am for the Euro..those were the good ole days..

[Jagno]

Oh Lord give me patience. FB is already coming alive with worst case scenario's. I wish people would just get their stuff in order, prepare and leave the drama factor out of it. So many people take each model as exact science and law without regards to the fact that the only certainty in the tropics is the uncertainty. It will in fact change many times before it's all said and done.

[sphelps8681]

I am 52 been up since 5:30am just a little tired. But this like the movie that can't get going. I understand how it all works and the patience it takes to bring everything all together but if it were a little more along I would be all in for every post. Which would be probably like every couple of minutes as I remember with Rita and Ike. Not that I am in anyway looking for that intense.

[sphelps8681]

Oh Lord give me patience. FB is already coming alive with worst case scenario's. I wish people would just get their stuff in order, prepare and leave the drama factor out of it. So many people take each model as exact science and law without regards to the fact that the only certainty in the tropics is the uncertainty. It will in fact change many times before it's all said and done.

Never ask for patience because I find you will be definitely put through the test of what patience really means. Been there and done that.

[Steve]

Oh Lord give me patience. FB is already coming alive with worst case scenario's. I wish people would just get their stuff in order, prepare and leave the drama factor out of it. So many people take each model as exact science and law without regards to the fact that the only certainty in the tropics is the uncertainty. It will in fact change many times before it's all said and done.

Unfriend them all.

[tropicwatch]

Oh Lord give me patience. FB is already coming alive with worst case scenario's. I wish people would just get their stuff in order, prepare and leave the drama factor out of it. So many people take each model as exact science and law without regards to the fact that the only certainty in the tropics is the uncertainty. It will in fact change many times before it's all said and done.

Surprisingly on my Tropicwatch FB page, most posters are fairly reasonable. Luckily I haven't had a lot of trolls to deal with either.