2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
It does look like Tara will come up just short since she may not last the day. Vicente will take it over, and probably 300 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
Well,no more Tara so we will have to wait for Vicente to do it.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
294.9 EPAC is 0.3 units from tying the record.
Wikipedia rounds the values thus equals 1992 with 295 units.
Wikipedia rounds the values thus equals 1992 with 295 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
It appears there is not a single active system anywhere around the world. How long has it been since we have 0 ACE going?
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
CLock is ticking on these EPAC invests.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
It's happened. Operationally, semantics, the EPAC season has surpassed 1992 with Willa to be the busiest ACE year on record with 295.5 units. The EPAC will be over 300 by the end of the week.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.
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Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
Monsoonjr99 wrote:Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.
Lane's peak intensity was also likely underestimated and reached CAT5 a bit sooner than operationally listed.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
supercane4867 wrote:Monsoonjr99 wrote:Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.
Lane's peak intensity was also likely underestimated and reached CAT5 a bit sooner than operationally listed.
I've seen discrepencies before, but they never amount to more than tenths of point. 120kt or 140kt the difference is not much for an advisory or two. Hector likely was underestimated in the same sense, these things usually balance out. In a basin without recon data to argue with the changes after finalizing are usually very miminal, rarely more than a point or two.
Now if it was significantly wrong like operationally a major but was a TS over many advisories then you'd see multiple unit docks.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
What are the prospects of the EPAC ACE ending up being higher than the WPAC ACE for 2018? Was it two years ago that there was a timeframe where it was ahead but the Wpac woke up in December and surpassed the Epac?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
IIRC EPAC's ACE has never surpassed WPAC's because TC activity in the two basins are positively correlated. Models are now showing another intense system in the WPAC that is going to contribute significant ACE. Unless the WPAC shuts down after this system (unlikely from a climatological perspective), it will take the crown this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 299.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2
Willa going to town. 299 units and EPAC will cross 300 units tonight. A first for the western hemisphere.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 302.5 - WPAC - 276.6 - NIO - 23.2
EPAC now in unchartered territory with 300+.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 304.6 - WPAC - 276.8 - NIO - 23.2
EPAC should enjoy this lead while it last. WPAC likely gonna overtake it again before year ends.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 310.0 - WPAC - 278.2 - NIO - 23.2
310 units now for EPAC. WPAC about to get a ton more with Yutu this week and will also go over 300+.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2
When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 312.3 - WPAC - 280.2 - NIO - 23.2
Will YUTU beat MANGKHUT as the most ACE on WPAC in 2018? It got 44.6 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2
bob rulz wrote:When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.
It is rare to see West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic to have above average ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2
Ptarmigan wrote:bob rulz wrote:When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.
It is rare to see West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic to have above average ACE.
All northern hemisphere basins actually. The NIO's ACE is also above average.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.4 - WPAC - 281.9 - NIO - 23.2
It’s not only rare. It should be a first-time event.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.