2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Total trash from the GFS and its future replacement.

- The GFS and FV3 show unrealistic amounts of vorticity streaming off South America. That's a nope.
- The GFS and FV3 show convective feedback leading to rapid low-pressure development off Nicaragua/Honduras. That's a nope.
- The FV3 intensifies its supposed hurricane WHILE it tracks over Cuba. That's a nope.

Just smile and wave and maybe it'll go away.

[Sciencerocks]

Total trash from the GFS and its future replacement.

- The GFS and FV3 show unrealistic amounts of vorticity streaming off South America. That's a nope.
- The GFS and FV3 show convective feedback leading to rapid low-pressure development off Nicaragua/Honduras. That's a nope.
- The FV3 intensifies its supposed hurricane WHILE it tracks over Cuba. That's a nope.

Just smile and wave and maybe it'll go away.

Pretty much this isn't likely to develop into anything. The GFS has been destroyed as a model to be used to track hurricanes and is vastly inferior to the gfs of ten years ago. How sad.

[djones65]

Using the GFS as an exact forecast would be completely foolish. And obviously, it is extremely unlikely to expect a strong hurricane to develop. However, using it as a "model" and a "tool" for weather forecasting.... I find it very reasonable to expect a low pressure area to form eventually over the NW Caribbean in the next two weeks. Whether it evolves into something more significant or not will have to await several more days. But to call a "model" trash in my opinion is ignorant. Models are designed to just give us guidance, not make exact forecasts especially in such a long range. But by the 20th or 21st I will bet there will be a disturbance to monitor... In my humble opinion.

[WeatherEmperor]

Total trash from the GFS and its future replacement.

- The GFS and FV3 show unrealistic amounts of vorticity streaming off South America. That's a nope.
- The GFS and FV3 show convective feedback leading to rapid low-pressure development off Nicaragua/Honduras. That's a nope.
- The FV3 intensifies its supposed hurricane WHILE it tracks over Cuba. That's a nope.

Just smile and wave and maybe it'll go away.

Could the NWS regret picking FV3 instead of MPAS?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[galaxy401]

Maybe the GFS really is right and we will witness something historic, it is an "upgrade" after all.

I fully expect this to move to the EPAC, that's usually how these systems go around this time of the year. Recent model runs seem to shift more southward.

[djones65]

"Convective feedback" is a highly overused and excuse for model development that is not believed. It truly is rare that is the case.

[chaser1]

Oh no?! Not only is the GFS development of the May Mega-cane not moving forward in time......, but its now seemingly moving further and further down-range?! We're gonna soon need a 460 Hr. long long range forecast to keep up with when this might potentially develop lol

[NDG]

Euro now more aggressive than the GFS with a possible weak hybrid system developing in the eastern GOM early next week.

[wxman57]

I agree that a NE Gulf low is likely Mon-Wed. I'd give it a 30% chance that the NHC may classify it as a TD or STD before it moves ashore on Wednesday. Little chance of significant strengthening due to unfavorable winds aloft. Just a rain event. I would look for the NHC to initiate special tropical outlooks this weekend.

Future hurricane still looks like a phantom. GFS keeps pushing the genesis time forward.

[cycloneye]

You can post models runs for the early next week possible development in GOM in the new thread for that area.

Gulf of Mexico thread

[cycloneye]

There has been a delay to the 12z run of GFS.One can only hope they fix the bad bug of making phantom things.

[cycloneye]

There has been a delay to the 12z run of GFS.One can only hope they fix the bad bug of making phantom things.

Ryan Maue's take about the delay.

@RyanMaue
NOAA Supercomputer took a dump. Looks like everyone will have to wait in order to see the world's 4th best weather forecast.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/995346080865898496

[gatorcane]

ICON with a 1006mb low in the SW Caribbean 1 week from now:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is running again.

[gatorcane]

Delayed 12Z GFS coming in now is also forming a low like the ICON model in the SW Caribbean. At 168 hours below. Just maybe timeframe is coming in???

[gatorcane]

210 hours heading towards NW Caribbean and gaining strength:

[gatorcane]

Heading NNE at 240 hours. This GFS run is more believable out through 10 days as it shows a sheared tropical storm. Notice timeframe has accelerated from previous runs. Track is closer to climo too. Very interesting run makes me believe the GFS a bit more now.

[cycloneye]

Surprised there is no post about what looks like ECMWF lowering pressures east of Belize.Maybe GFS may not be alone?

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
Putting aside the #GFS fantasy canes beyond forecast day 10, the low-level westerlies forecast to develop next week over the EPAC is a favorable pattern for a large-scale circulation (i.e., a #CentralAmericanGyre) to develop.

This idea is supported by both the ECMWF & GFS.


 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/995426333852237824

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS looks like it is back to the idea of a hurricane and timeframe is no longer moving out folks. Seems the GFS idea of some kind of monsoon trough that may spark genesis could be right after all especially looking at the latest ECMWF. Simulated IR impressive for May!