Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Clearcloudz]

Ain't that pretty when you look at it from all the angles.



@crankywxguy

[Steve]

Lmao at WRF. Hahahahaha. Bring back the Clipper baby. (Ref to now deleted post).

NAM rolling in now. Looks like a couple waves of rain into SETX but lowest pressure is south even at 51 hours. Let’s see what happens by 84.

[stormlover2013]

Nam might be hinting to icon.

[Haris]

Lmao at WRF. Hahahahaha. Bring back the Clipper baby. (Ref to now deleted post).

NAM rolling in now. Looks like a couple waves of rain into SETX but lowest pressure is south even at 51 hours. Let’s see what happens by 84.

NAM 3K is alot wetter. Houston at 7" at hour 42.

[Steve]

Lmao at WRF. Hahahahaha. Bring back the Clipper baby. (Ref to now deleted post).

NAM rolling in now. Looks like a couple waves of rain into SETX but lowest pressure is south even at 51 hours. Let’s see what happens by 84.

NAM 3K is alot wetter. Houston at 7" at hour 42.

Yeah. It shoots a line through here too. But the high resolution 3km I think is indicating potential for some training wherever it happens. Y’all be safe.

Edit to say the 00z 12km likes South Padre with the promise for more because the bulk is still offshore. lrak, you got rain.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z Nam Model Run stalling for several days near Brownsville TX.

[Steve]

00Z Nam Model Run stalling for several days near Brownsville TX.

There have been a bunch of model hints the last few days of low pressure spinning around Tamaulipas or Cameron County. Some have speculated it was a piece of the wave now almost to 60. Others have said it might be the intermediate wave past 70. Others think some of Carlotta may contribute to the lower pressure there. I don’t know. But you won’t see this type of progression of a weather pattern that often. I’ve never seen it before at all. A monsoon trough launching a tropical storm and then leaving a focusing mechanism off the Cental American coast. Eventually a front will sweep down or high pressure from the Atlantic will nose in and the pattern will change. But it could be a while. MJO hits Phase 2 in about a week but moves to 3 fairly quickly. So maybe we will get something to spin up eventually before it becomes less favorable.

Also 00z runs are coming in. iCON still focuses the heaviest rain on SE TX. GFS does too but the difference is like 10 vs 5”. We’ll see how the rest of that GFS run goes.

[Haris]

0z gfs shows little rain for STx . Lots for central and E . But it is trimming its totals for the hill co. I’m worried the Austin metro gets nothing if this trend continues

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian looks very similar to the 12z UKMET. Lots of rain for much of the southern half of TX as the low stalls near the RGV.

[ROCK]

Tstorms firing right over the center now..look out now!! Might have a TD by first light. JMO

[ROCK]

0z Canadian looks very similar to the 12z UKMET. Lots of rain for much of the southern half of TX as the low stalls near the RGV.

Yes they do..and pump copious amount of tropical moisture into TX....

[wxman57]

Gulf obs indicate a wave axis. Lowest pressure 1011-1012mb. Looks like that is what will move into Texas tomorrow.

[ROCK]

Gulf obs indicate a wave axis. Lowest pressure 1011-1012mb. Looks like that is what will move into Texas tomorrow.

True nothing at the surface but it has time just like Allison didn’t have a LLC until almost landfall and Humberto who everyone got wrong...just sayin

[Cpv17]

Gulf obs indicate a wave axis. Lowest pressure 1011-1012mb. Looks like that is what will move into Texas tomorrow.

True nothing at the surface but it has time just like Allison didn’t have a LLC until almost landfall and Humberto who everyone got wrong...just sayin

Too much wind shear.

[stormlover2013]

Yep can never trust these systems in gulf

[Steve]

Gulf obs indicate a wave axis. Lowest pressure 1011-1012mb. Looks like that is what will move into Texas tomorrow.

True nothing at the surface but it has time just like Allison didn’t have a LLC until almost landfall and Humberto who everyone got wrong...just sayin

Of course. No one discounts ramp ups in the western gulf. But I wonder if this isn’t just a pulse in the overall pattern that will bring more rain to Texas. Idk

Breezy out of the SSE/S here. Feels more like Pensacola Beach.

[ROCK]

Gulf obs indicate a wave axis. Lowest pressure 1011-1012mb. Looks like that is what will move into Texas tomorrow.

True nothing at the surface but it has time just like Allison didn’t have a LLC until almost landfall and Humberto who everyone got wrong...just sayin

Of course. No one discounts ramp ups in the western gulf. But I wonder if this isn’t just a pulse in the overall pattern that will bring more rain to Texas. Idk

Breezy out of the SSE/S here. Feels more like Pensacola Beach.

Yes it does Steve..windy here in good ole Santa Fe..FWIW no model picked up Humberto..went from mid level circulation to Cat 1 in like 36hrs..

[ROCK]

Hard to believe they didn’t tag it as an invest just for kicks..run some models check on verification...actually frustrating...ugh

[Steve]

Yeah. I remember. And Claudette too. Lots of systems intensify on their way in there. I don’t know if this energy does. But there looks to be a surface spin coming 4/5/6 days down the road. Who knows?

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET looks similar to its 12z run and the 0z Canadian. Stalls a weak low in south TX for several days leading to some very heavy rainfall totals.