Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

Here is a good view of the wave east of the Islands.

[tolakram]

At 240 hours both the GFS and Euro agree, which is pretty darn rare.





Even the Canadian has vorticity in the Gulf at 240.

[stormlover2013]

Upper level pattern is totally different with the EURO and GFS, Gfs has a strong trough sweeping it up lol acting like its a October weather pattern.

[Ivanhater]

Upper level pattern is totally different with the EURO and GFS, Gfs has a strong trough sweeping it up lol acting like its a October weather pattern.

Not uncommon at all for September. There is a weakness in the northern Gulf, not a strong trough

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 06z GFS trucks the wave over Cuba/Hispaniola, which is why it stays weak. The Euro's path goes north of the islands, which would result in a stronger system. No way to tell which path will be correct, as both seem equally likely to me.

[floridasun78]

Not sure where that wave is exactly...

https://i.imgur.com/d1OHqXQ.gif

that what i was asking on mon their no wavr if one it very weak in area were tropical wave supoose be at

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not sure where that wave is exactly...

https://i.imgur.com/d1OHqXQ.gif

rhat what i was asking on mon their no wavr if one it very weak in area were tropical wave supoose be at

The wave axis is located at ~53W and generating limited showers and thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

There is #1.

@AndyHazelton
Two areas to watch in the Atlantic coming up. #1 is this wave approaching the Antilles. Doesn't look like much ATM, but ECMWF/GFS both suggest development possible in the Bahamas/Gulf. #2 is a wave moving off Africa soon with strong model signal. Active wavetrain behind as well.



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1034421096634896385

[Hypercane_Kyle]

*If* I'm reading the Euro right, there appears to be an area of vorticity near Hispaniola that the wave axis picks up enroute to the Bahamas. Not a simple genesis.

[nativefloridian]

There is #1.

@AndyHazelton
Two areas to watch in the Atlantic coming up. #1 is this wave approaching the Antilles. Doesn't look like much ATM, but ECMWF/GFS both suggest development possible in the Bahamas/Gulf. #2 is a wave moving off Africa soon with strong model signal. Active wavetrain behind as well.

https://i.imgur.com/PiACLvG.jpg

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 6634896385

So are we to assume the blob in between is insignificant and should be ignored? I guess there's a reason for which some of us, like myself, are not aware of and if someone could shed some light on why, it would be greatly appreciated.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Evil Jeremy]

I know models don’t see this taking off until the Gulf, but I don’t like the idea of having an organizing wave off the SE FL coast in 5-6 days. Breaking out the bookmarks...

[Bocadude85]

Definitely need to keep a eye on this wave, the Bahamas are a breeding ground for strong storms. Looks like Florida may have to deal with a TS and the gulf may be dealing with a hurricane.

[toad strangler]

The 06z GFS trucks the wave over Cuba/Hispaniola, which is why it stays weak. The Euro's path goes north of the islands, which would result in a stronger system. No way to tell which path will be correct, as both seem equally likely to me.

Not to mention Euro ensembles have a heavy presence right into the central and northern FL peninsula.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Weather models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season & see multiple areas of development possible starting mainly this weekend.

*Need to watch Tropical Wave off South Florida / Bahamas

[wxman57]

There is #1.

@AndyHazelton
Two areas to watch in the Atlantic coming up. #1 is this wave approaching the Antilles. Doesn't look like much ATM, but ECMWF/GFS both suggest development possible in the Bahamas/Gulf. #2 is a wave moving off Africa soon with strong model signal. Active wavetrain behind as well.

https://i.imgur.com/PiACLvG.jpg

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 6634896385

So are we to assume the blob in between is insignificant and should be ignored? I guess there's a reason for which some of us, like myself, are not aware of and if someone could shed some light on why, it would be greatly appreciated.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The "blob" is an area of convection between two tropical waves (inverted trofs). You don't typically look there for tropical development. Look to the crests of the waves.

[nativefloridian]

There is #1.

@AndyHazelton
Two areas to watch in the Atlantic coming up. #1 is this wave approaching the Antilles. Doesn't look like much ATM, but ECMWF/GFS both suggest development possible in the Bahamas/Gulf. #2 is a wave moving off Africa soon with strong model signal. Active wavetrain behind as well.

https://i.imgur.com/PiACLvG.jpg

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 6634896385

So are we to assume the blob in between is insignificant and should be ignored? I guess there's a reason for which some of us, like myself, are not aware of and if someone could shed some light on why, it would be greatly appreciated.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The "blob" is an area of convection between two tropical waves (inverted trofs). You don't typically look there for tropical development. Look to the crests of the waves.

Thank you for clarifying!

[Blown Away]

Latest ECMWF from 120-240 hours...

[stormlover2013]

going to be interesting once it gets on GOM, always timing, ridge looks stout so we shall see. GFS has been up and down with this for the last 4 days, Euro been consisting of a strong wave getting into gulf.

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

[Gustywind]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

Looks like too i think . Given our local Pro Mets, Wednesday should be a very humid and rainy day! Moderate too high rainfall values are even expected?
Frequents strong showers and tstorms are expected already tonight afternoon till Thursday. I will keep informed if anything happens in Guadeloupe. Let's wait and see.