2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

NHC will have to add another yellow one on Friday.

Maybe in the CPAC as well. Euro keeps trying to form something there lol. It's desperate.

Usually I'd be a little more skeptical since we're still in June, but I'm starting to think there's a decent chance something does pop up, just because of how favorable that basin is looking this year.

And also because the models have some sort of El Nino standing wave setting up near 135W.

[NotSparta]

Maybe in the CPAC as well. Euro keeps trying to form something there lol. It's desperate.

Usually I'd be a little more skeptical since we're still in June, but I'm starting to think there's a decent chance something does pop up, just because of how favorable that basin is looking this year.

And also because the models have some sort of El Nino standing wave setting up near 135W.

I think taking the opposite of what the models will give you a better chance of verifying given how terribly they've done, however

[Kingarabian]

Usually I'd be a little more skeptical since we're still in June, but I'm starting to think there's a decent chance something does pop up, just because of how favorable that basin is looking this year.

And also because the models have some sort of El Nino standing wave setting up near 135W.

I think taking the opposite of what the models will give you a better chance of verifying given how terribly they've done, however

Yeah we'll see in mid July if it's happening or not. It's already verifying on the hovmollers but that can be alluded to repeated active TC's in a short period of time which would automatically reflect a bunch of rising motion.

[NotSparta]

And also because the models have some sort of El Nino standing wave setting up near 135W.

I think taking the opposite of what the models will give you a better chance of verifying given how terribly they've done, however

Yeah we'll see in mid July if it's happening or not. It's already verifying on the hovmollers but that can be alluded to repeated active TC's in a short period of time which would automatically reflect a bunch of rising motion.

Yeah, but I think that's more due to MJO passing by. Only if it suddenly stops, it is a standing wave. I think it's just subseasonal damping, and also, it's off equatorial, biased a bit north. Due to the +PMM it'll show more of a standing wave than there will be in the ENSO domain

[Kingarabian]

Hard to keep track at this point. Each closed iso bar with orange/red shading has a shot at developing into a TC.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could develop by late this weekend or early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Chris90]

Hard to keep track at this point. Each closed iso bar with orange/red shading has a shot at developing into a TC.

Is that showing two storms doing some kind of fujiwhara and then merging? That would be something to see...

[cycloneye]

Up to 50% in 5 days.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could develop by late this weekend or early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has the 0/50 crossing to CPAC strong.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF has the 0/50 crossing to CPAC strong.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/1zOdpYK.gif[url]

Srengthening while entering the CPAC. Just have to hope the ridge holds firm if this were to materialize.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF has the 0/50 crossing to CPAC strong.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/1zOdpYK.gif[url]

Also look at the usually conservative ICON showing another monster behind it:

[TheStormExpert]

12z ECMWF has the 0/50 crossing to CPAC strong.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/1zOdpYK.gif[url]

Srengthening while entering the CPAC. Just have to hope the ridge holds firm if this were to materialize.

Looks like the ridge moves in tandem with it, though it's 10 days out and a lot will change.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is loaded.

[cycloneye]

10%/60%

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from
this wave over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
could form by late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward well away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

10%/60%

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from
this wave over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
could form by late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward well away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Should see 94E soon.

[Ntxw]

Show has begun. Alvin becomes first 'cane of the season. Next one up on deck pretty soon.

[Astromanía]

Many models agree that we will see two consecutives major hurricanes in the first days of July, some models say that both will be longtracker storms, the next days will be very interesting, we will see how the ACE increase and how they can overperform. The first storm Alvin has impressed me for reach hurricane status so far so I think the next storms will be even more impressive, I'm getting worried about Hawaii, last season was not good and this one looking to be worse, I hope that they are prepare and for my country Mexico I think we are prepared unless some storm reach the poorest states at the south (Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1144571159524065280




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1144571537636438017