2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#201 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:15 am

A new thread for the NGOM area is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120321&p=2745158#p2745158
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#202 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:30 am

psyclone wrote:WPC is depicting buckets of QPF over the northeastern Gulf and up off the southeast coast especially after day 5. No matter what happens some significant rain appears to be on tap for someone. It's going to be worth monitoring subsequent outlooks as the timeframe reels in.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml


Yikes..., that WOULD be a lot of rain for a bunch of folks. Oddly, the GFS 7 day total accumulation forecast doesn't depict nearly as much though???
https://imgur.com/f9Q3eJ8
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#203 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:13 pm

drezee wrote:Visibles tomorrow AM will be interesting

I just got home. The visibles for the African wave were quite interesting...lets see if it can stay low...
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#204 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:37 pm

I agree
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#205 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:39 pm

So are we now taking about the AEW in this thread?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#206 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:43 pm

A lot of turning

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#207 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:46 pm

South of cap verde island
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#208 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:23 pm

1012 MB low is along 7N / 24 W
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#209 Postby USTropics » Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:06 pm

Certainly some spin evident on satellite loops, dry air has taken a toll but the area continues to try and push out convection up ahead of the vort maximum:
Image
Image

CIMSS vorticity maps show this as well (albeit elongated).

850mb vorticity:
Image

500mb vorticity:
Image

The biggest obstacle is a large SAL plume that will be moving in conjunction with this wave:
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#210 Postby Siker » Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:45 pm

GFS is marginally interested in the wave ahead of that one as it nears the Caribbean.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#211 Postby Blinhart » Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:53 am

USTropics wrote:Certainly some spin evident on satellite loops, dry air has taken a toll but the area continues to try and push out convection up ahead of the vort maximum:
https://i.imgur.com/1imHGDZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/DHbUTGP.gif

CIMSS vorticity maps show this as well (albeit elongated).

850mb vorticity:
https://i.imgur.com/u3jT8mV.gif

500mb vorticity:
https://i.imgur.com/Tsz9chy.gif

The biggest obstacle is a large SAL plume that will be moving in conjunction with this wave:
https://i.imgur.com/HIpCcua.jpg



So it looks like the African train might be starting.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#212 Postby USTropics » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:40 pm

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#213 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:08 pm

00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#214 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif[/rl]

It looks weird considering how large these wave envelopes are. Maybe the Euro will show it. But just like the circled system by the NHC that the GFS has been trying to develop on and off near 130W, the vorticity looks a bit abnormal.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#215 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:04 am

cycloneye wrote:00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif


After it moves completely offshore later today-tonight, both the ECM and GFS now show this system maintaining itself for about 60-72 hours as a "low latitude runner" along roughly 9N before it opens up and dissipates around Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I'm usually a 'wake me up when it gets west of 40W" kind of guy, however with the wave already being impressive on satellite imagery, and with a relatively strong signal in the model guidance, it appears likely that at the very least we'll have a strong low latitude CV wave to track for the next 2-3 days. Who knows, maybe even a brief CV system? Stranger things have happened in the MDR...
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#216 Postby USTropics » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:27 am

AJC3 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif


After it moves completely offshore later today-tonight, both the ECM and GFS now show this system maintaining itself for about 60-72 hours as a "low latitude runner" along roughly 9N before it opens up and dissipates around Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I'm usually a 'wake me up when it gets west of 40W" kind of guy, however with the wave already being impressive on satellite imagery, and with a relatively strong signal in the model guidance, it appears likely that at the very least we'll have a strong low latitude CV wave to track for the next 2-3 days. Who knows, maybe even a brief CV system? Stranger things have happened in the MDR...


It has my interest as well, the preceding two waves before this one were quite robust and have created a slight pocket/lessened the extent of the SAL. I've noticed the speeds of the past few waves haven't been as quick (~15 kts) either; might be able to develop one of those classic AEW pouches that provides some protection from the SAL. GFS shows an interesting intrusion of dry air from the south of the wave, which seems to be the main inhibitor (slightly evident on the CIMSS SAL output product as well).

Image
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#217 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:43 am

A thread for the Strong Wave is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120323
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#218 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:32 pm

Looks as though the 18zGFS is showing what may be a change towards a more positive for development in the MDR around the end of the run
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#219 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:45 pm

we seen july storm out their but their short live put i see sal is far west of wave not check shear map yet i look shear map look shear could be issie little bit too west Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#220 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:53 pm

18z GFS...
Image
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