2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

A new thread for the NGOM area is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120321&p=2745158#p2745158

[chaser1]

WPC is depicting buckets of QPF over the northeastern Gulf and up off the southeast coast especially after day 5. No matter what happens some significant rain appears to be on tap for someone. It's going to be worth monitoring subsequent outlooks as the timeframe reels in.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Yikes..., that WOULD be a lot of rain for a bunch of folks. Oddly, the GFS 7 day total accumulation forecast doesn't depict nearly as much though???
https://imgur.com/f9Q3eJ8

[drezee]

Visibles tomorrow AM will be interesting

I just got home. The visibles for the African wave were quite interesting...lets see if it can stay low...

[OURAGAN]

I agree

[AutoPenalti]

So are we now taking about the AEW in this thread?

[OURAGAN]

A lot of turning

[OURAGAN]

South of cap verde island

[OURAGAN]

1012 MB low is along 7N / 24 W

[USTropics]

Certainly some spin evident on satellite loops, dry air has taken a toll but the area continues to try and push out convection up ahead of the vort maximum:



CIMSS vorticity maps show this as well (albeit elongated).

850mb vorticity:


500mb vorticity:


The biggest obstacle is a large SAL plume that will be moving in conjunction with this wave:

[Siker]

GFS is marginally interested in the wave ahead of that one as it nears the Caribbean.

[Blinhart]

Certainly some spin evident on satellite loops, dry air has taken a toll but the area continues to try and push out convection up ahead of the vort maximum:
https://i.imgur.com/1imHGDZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/DHbUTGP.gif

CIMSS vorticity maps show this as well (albeit elongated).

850mb vorticity:
https://i.imgur.com/u3jT8mV.gif

500mb vorticity:
https://i.imgur.com/Tsz9chy.gif

The biggest obstacle is a large SAL plume that will be moving in conjunction with this wave:
https://i.imgur.com/HIpCcua.jpg

So it looks like the African train might be starting.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1148054155426246657

[cycloneye]

00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

[Kingarabian]

00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif[/rl]

It looks weird considering how large these wave envelopes are. Maybe the Euro will show it. But just like the circled system by the NHC that the GFS has been trying to develop on and off near 130W, the vorticity looks a bit abnormal.

[AJC3]

00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif

After it moves completely offshore later today-tonight, both the ECM and GFS now show this system maintaining itself for about 60-72 hours as a "low latitude runner" along roughly 9N before it opens up and dissipates around Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I'm usually a 'wake me up when it gets west of 40W" kind of guy, however with the wave already being impressive on satellite imagery, and with a relatively strong signal in the model guidance, it appears likely that at the very least we'll have a strong low latitude CV wave to track for the next 2-3 days. Who knows, maybe even a brief CV system? Stranger things have happened in the MDR...

[USTropics]

00z FV3-GFS spins a wave but fades fast.

https://i.imgur.com/rKSwo6l.gif

After it moves completely offshore later today-tonight, both the ECM and GFS now show this system maintaining itself for about 60-72 hours as a "low latitude runner" along roughly 9N before it opens up and dissipates around Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I'm usually a 'wake me up when it gets west of 40W" kind of guy, however with the wave already being impressive on satellite imagery, and with a relatively strong signal in the model guidance, it appears likely that at the very least we'll have a strong low latitude CV wave to track for the next 2-3 days. Who knows, maybe even a brief CV system? Stranger things have happened in the MDR...

It has my interest as well, the preceding two waves before this one were quite robust and have created a slight pocket/lessened the extent of the SAL. I've noticed the speeds of the past few waves haven't been as quick (~15 kts) either; might be able to develop one of those classic AEW pouches that provides some protection from the SAL. GFS shows an interesting intrusion of dry air from the south of the wave, which seems to be the main inhibitor (slightly evident on the CIMSS SAL output product as well).

[cycloneye]

A thread for the Strong Wave is up.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120323

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the 18zGFS is showing what may be a change towards a more positive for development in the MDR around the end of the run

[floridasun78]

we seen july storm out their but their short live put i see sal is far west of wave not check shear map yet i look shear map look shear could be issie little bit too west

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS...