Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[NDG]

00z GFS ensembles, very strong signal:

https://i.ibb.co/T16GCK3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh66-204.gif

The ensemble members seem to weaken the EPAC storm fairly quickly, which may be allowing a potential storm in the Gulf to flourish.

The operational was hinting at this as well, a quick spinup that gets further NW and weakens significantly. Also GEFS 500mb anomalies not displacing the subtropical high as far west (was displaced into the EGOM 5 runs ago):

https://i.ibb.co/JKyY41F/gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-atl-fh168-trend-1.gif

I agree with the GEFS, having a hard time believing that the Bermuda ridge will push so far west when a weakness has been lingering across the northern GOM more often than not this summer so far.

[catskillfire51]

Is it me or does the 6z GFS take the wave into Texas up to Arkansas then spins back to the Gulf by Mississippi ending up off Florida?

[NDG]

Is it me or does the 6z GFS take the wave into Texas up to Arkansas then spins back to the Gulf by Mississippi ending up off Florida?

It does, kind of crazy.

[NDG]

Looks like the 06z GFS operational model run lost some ensembles support.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah I think they will keep bouncing back and forth, Tuesday or wed should get a grasp on if something could form

[Aric Dunn]

Oh hey look.. convection is increasing.. gee i wonder why...
You think this might impart some more energy and vorticity into the wave for later use ?

Yep I believe so....

As convection increases the models will have something to latch onto besides a dry weak wave and should get a better idea of for or against development later on..

[SoupBone]

Looks like the 06z GFS operational model run lost some ensembles support.

It's still looking like a wet weekend for the Gulf Coast, but not really any significant development. Louisiana might not need the rain, but Texas welcomes it.

[stormlover2013]

nobody has no clue what its going to do still a longs way out, any moisture that sits in the gulf and could form into a tropical system needs to pay attention it. I think models will continuing to do flip flopping

[Aric Dunn]

nobody has no clue what its going to do still a longs way out, any moisture that sits in the gulf and could form into a tropical system needs to pay attention it. I think models will continuing to do flip flopping

Exactly.... the increased convection as it interacts with that TUTT will give the models something more to latch onto.

[NDG]

Looks like the 06z GFS operational model run lost some ensembles support.

It's still looking like a wet weekend for the Gulf Coast, but not really any significant development. Louisiana might not need the rain, but Texas welcomes it.

I think that there’s a good 50% of development with this tropical wave when it gets into the GOM, GFS & Euro are still persistent that it will have good UL environment as the death ridge moves west towards NW MX.

[SoupBone]

Looks like the 06z GFS operational model run lost some ensembles support.

It's still looking like a wet weekend for the Gulf Coast, but not really any significant development. Louisiana might not need the rain, but Texas welcomes it.

I think that there’s a good 50% of development with this tropical wave when it gets into the GOM, GFS & Euro are still persistent that it will have good UL environment as the death ridge moves west towards NW MX.

Our paid pros are only giving it a 10% chance, but admit it has potentially better conditions once it reaches the GoM.

[cycloneye]

Wave axis now at 56W per 12z surface analysis.

[Aric Dunn]

Wave axis now at 56W per 12z surface analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/tbOmfEH.gif

Yep and as expected the convection has begun to increase. This should help the models with something substantial to work with.

[Nederlander]

It's still looking like a wet weekend for the Gulf Coast, but not really any significant development. Louisiana might not need the rain, but Texas welcomes it.

I think that there’s a good 50% of development with this tropical wave when it gets into the GOM, GFS & Euro are still persistent that it will have good UL environment as the death ridge moves west towards NW MX.

Our paid pros are only giving it a 10% chance, but admit it has potentially better conditions once it reaches the GoM.

They are always bearish this far out. Which, I understand - waiting until the NHC starts putting out development chances to really give an opinion. Bottom line is that it’s very difficult to predict UL conditions that far out so who knows. The only thing I think we can say with any certainty is that there will be some sort of lp feature in the Carib/SW GOM next week and that SSTs will not be a limiting factor.

[NDG]

Wave axis now at 56W per 12z surface analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/tbOmfEH.gif

Yep and as expected the convection has begun to increase. This should help the models with something substantial to work with.

The GFS has been persistent for days that convection will increase once it reaches the Windward islands, the problem is the low level jet after the islands that will keep it from developing until it reaches at least the western Caribbean if not the GOM.

[SoupBone]

GFS has that EPAC system at 180 hours as a pretty potent system. Nothing showing yet for this one (at 180 hours).

[cycloneye]

Wave axis now at 56W per 12z surface analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/tbOmfEH.gif

Yep and as expected the convection has begun to increase. This should help the models with something substantial to work with.

The GFS has been persistent for days that convection will increase once it reaches the Windward islands, the problem is the low level jet after the islands that will keep it from developing until it reaches at least the western Caribbean if not the GOM.

Here is what NDG is talking about the convection over the Windwards.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep and as expected the convection has begun to increase. This should help the models with something substantial to work with.

The GFS has been persistent for days that convection will increase once it reaches the Windward islands, the problem is the low level jet after the islands that will keep it from developing until it reaches at least the western Caribbean if not the GOM.

Here is what NDG is talking about the convection over the Windwards.

https://i.imgur.com/Yl8UlaV.png

Yes it has been showing this.. I have said this for 4 days... but it was just a forecast.. and until such things happen it is just that.. a forecast. Once the convection increases then the models have an ACTUAL feature to use.

the point is all the previous runs without any actual substantial convective mass or vorticity or something ( a weak dry wave does not typically show up well in models) are very low confidence.. but once we have convection ( like it is starting to do now) then models runs will become higher confidence..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162405910364545024

[NDG]

Not surprised that the 12z GFS operational run dropped development as it lost some of its ensembles' support from its earlier 06z run.