2020 Global ACE: NATL - 179.8 - EPAC - 76.5 - WPAC - 148.5 - NIO - 19.2

[kevin]

Atlantic ACE continues to climb, and between Eta, Theta and 98L, reaching 170 seems very possible. This November has already produced 19 ACE in the Atlantic - the most since 2001 - and it appears likely that 2020 will finish with at least the second-highest November ACE value of the satellite era.

Which year has the highest November ACE value of the satellite era?

[CyclonicFury]

Atlantic ACE continues to climb, and between Eta, Theta and 98L, reaching 170 seems very possible. This November has already produced 19 ACE in the Atlantic - the most since 2001 - and it appears likely that 2020 will finish with at least the second-highest November ACE value of the satellite era.

Which year has the highest November ACE value of the satellite era?

2001, with 28 I believe. That month started with Hurricane Michelle which formed in late October, and then had Hurricane Noel and Hurricane Olga. November 1932 has the all-time record with 70 - but I don't think that's in reach.

[kevin]

Atlantic ACE continues to climb, and between Eta, Theta and 98L, reaching 170 seems very possible. This November has already produced 19 ACE in the Atlantic - the most since 2001 - and it appears likely that 2020 will finish with at least the second-highest November ACE value of the satellite era.

Which year has the highest November ACE value of the satellite era?

2001, with 28 I believe. That month started with Hurricane Michelle which formed in late October, and then had Hurricane Noel and Hurricane Olga. November 1932 has the all-time record with 70 - but I don't think that's in reach.

Thanks. I agree that 70 is most likely out of reach, but 28 sounds like a realistic possibility depending on what happens with future Iota and whether any other storms form in November.

[cycloneye]

Late season formations puts 2020 ACE over the top.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1326622978818273280

[aspen]

There’s a chance Iota could bring 2020 into the Top 10 ACE club. Wikipedia’s ACE estimate is currently around 158, and once Eta and Theta finally finish up, it’ll likely be ~160 ACE. In order to be in the top 10, 2020 must surpass 1998’s 181 ACE. It seems that Iota is gearing up to be another ~15+ ACE major like Delta, Epsilon, and Eta, and depending on how strong it gets and how long it’s able to hold on to hurricane intensity, it might exceed 20 ACE. Either it could push 2020 to >=181 ACE by itself, or it produces enough ACE that a couple of later storms push 2020 over the edge.

Who would’ve thought that a flurry of October and November majors would be the ultra-powerful storms that contribute the most to 2020’s ACE total.

[Ryxn]

There is even an outside chance the Atlantic could reach 200 ACE if all the stars align...

Per this website, http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ , the current ACE is at 163.7 which means 36.3 units are required to break the elite 200 ACE club.

Eta will like bring 0.3 more units (164 total)
Theta, if it strengthens to a hurricane, could bring 1.5 more units (165.5 total)

Iota, if it completely explodes to CAT 5 and is slow-moving could produce 19.5 units (but likely not much more) (185 total)

There is some model support there could be one last hurricane in the Caribbean in late November. If it's a high-end CAT 2/low- CAT 3, it could be between Zeta and Epsilon for ACE and produce 10 units (195 total).

Another possible tropical storm/hurricane in the mid-Atlantic late-November and/or some tropical storms/hurricanes in December (especially long-lived meanderers like Nadine '12 and Epsilon '05) could bring 5-10 more units to sum up the year at 200-205 ACE.

I would say this is unlikely but perfectly in the realm of possibility. I do believe 2020 will be among the Top 10 ACE producers though with 185-190 units.

[cycloneye]

The ACE pie.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1326938068104798209

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guessing future-Iota will be able to add another 15 ACE units to that list.

[Extratropical94]

Guessing future-Iota will be able to add another 15 ACE units to that list.

Given the current forecast, 10 are more likely. For 15 ACE, Iota would have to quickly RI into a C4/5 or slow down on approach like Eta did.

TIME KT ACE TOTAL
-24H 35 0.1225 0.1225
-18H 40 0.1600 0.2825
-12H 45 0.2025 0.4850
-6H 55 0.3025 0.7875
0H 65 0.4225 1.2100
--------------------------
6H 75 0.5625 1.7725
12H 85 0.7225 2.4950
18H 90 0.8100 3.3050
24H 100 1.0000 4.3050
30H 105 1.1025 5.4075
36H 105 1.1025 6.5100
42H 110 1.2100 7.7200
48H 110 1.2100 8.9300
54H 80 0.6400 9.5700
60H 60 0.3600 9.9300
66H 45 0.2025 10.1325
72H 35 0.1225 10.2550

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Iota may well get there then, as it's now forecasted to reach 120 knots.

[Extratropical94]

Updated ACE forecast, the earlier table was incorrect, I forgot to include the first couple hours as a TS. 15 units are not out of reach, but would still require additional strengthening, or a slower decay over land

TIME KT ACE TOTAL
-72H 30 0.0000 0.0000
-66H 35 0.1225 0.1225
-60H 35 0.1225 0.2450
-54H 35 0.1225 0.3675
-48H 40 0.1600 0.5275
-42H 45 0.2025 0.7300
-36H 55 0.3025 1.0325
-30H 65 0.4225 1.4550
-24H 70 0.4900 1.9450
-18H 80 0.6400 2.5850
-12H 90 0.8100 3.3950
-6H 120 1.4400 4.8350
0H 140 1.9600 6.7950
--------------------------
6H 145 2.1025 8.8975
12H 145 2.1025 11.0000
18H 100 1.0000 12.0000
24H 75 0.5625 12.5625
30H 50 0.2500 12.8125
36H 40 0.1600 12.9725
42H 35 0.1225 13.0950

[cycloneye]

Updated the new NATL total to 173.8 units. Iota so far has 6.7.

[cycloneye]

The latest update for NATL jumps to 175.9 units and Iota goes up to 8.8.

[storminabox]

You know what I’m starting to think we have a legitimate shot at hitting 200 ACE this season. It will be difficult and it’s likely that the Atlantic falls short, but it could be close.

[aspen]

2020 is now within 10 ACE of surpassing 1998 as the tenth highest ACE total for an Atlantic hurricane season. All it’ll take is another system like Theta in terms of duration and intensity, and an additional weak TC that lasts for a few days.

[Shell Mound]

2020 is now within 10 ACE of surpassing 1998 as the tenth highest ACE total for an Atlantic hurricane season. All it’ll take is another system like Theta in terms of duration and intensity, and an additional weak TC that lasts for a few days.

I think 2020’s six major hurricanes alone are sufficient to designate this year as “hyperactive.” Since 1851, only seven other seasons featured six or more major hurricanes: 1926, 1933, 1950, 1996, 2004, 2005, and 2017. Needless to say, all of these years met the “official” criteria for hyperactivity. Given that Zeta is a good candidate for posthumous upgrade to 100 kt (low-end Cat-3 status), 2020 has a good chance to match 2005’s record of seven MH, at the very least, and one more low-end Cat-3—à la Beta ‘05 or Otto ‘16—can’t be precluded at this point in time, so 2020 still has a nonzero chance to exceed 2005’s MH total. Even if Marco and Nana were somehow downgraded to TS status, Gamma is almost certainly to be upgraded to Cat-1 status, so 2020 would end up with at least twelve legitimate hurricanes. Going back to 1851, one can only find one season with more than twelve hurricanes: 2005, with fifteen (!). A total of twelve would tie 1969 and 2010’s total.

[aspen]

2020 only needs about 8 ACE to surpass 1998 for the tenth-highest total ACE of a single season. It might have a chance, if these two AOIs become Kappa and Lambda.