2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

lm**o at the GFS 00z. Haha. We're close to 2 weeks of being in MJO Phase 2 per CPC, but maybe it's a little sooner if you want to go with the JMA. Still, this is June. You don't need a potentially Rita-sized system cut off and spinning down there. It would mess lots of things up. IDK, it's just too early but amusing for sure.

[Kingarabian]

The 00z GFS is wtf lol

Finishes off like this:

[GCANE]

NHC has the EPAC on watch








ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue May 26 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico,
Guatemala, and El Salvador are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or over the weekend while it drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[GCANE]

More consistency in the models this morning with the crossover somewhere between Oaxcaca and western Yucatan.
Relatively flat landscape, with better chance for the LL vort to stay intact.
If this makes it into the BOC / GOM, possibly sometimes early to mid net week, looks like it may meander for sometime.

[GCANE]

Ensembles appear to have an approximate 50/50 split this goes into the BOC or moves west into the EPAC as the LL vort attempts to cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

[MississippiWx]

I know the main focus in this thread is the CAG development, but I wouldn’t bypass the feature in the South-Central Atlantic. It has shown persistent convection and models show it forming a surface low over the next couple of days. This could be one of those subtropical/hybrid developments we’ve grown to know and love in the Atlantic the past decade.

Just something else to watch as we transition from Bertha to the CAG feature.

[Siker]

I know the main focus in this thread is the CAG development, but I wouldn’t bypass the feature in the South-Central Atlantic. It has shown persistent convection and models show it forming a surface low over the next couple of days. This could be one of those subtropical/hybrid developments we’ve grown to know and love in the Atlantic the past decade.

Just something else to watch as we transition from Bertha to the CAG feature.

Yep, timing of this system gives us a decent shot at a record-breaking 3rd named storm before June 1st (peak organization looks to be on May 31st).

[aspen]

The GFS also has a small system forming on the SW Caribbean, separate from the CAG/crossover feature (until it gets absorbed), around 132-144 hours out. This little guy has been appearing in a couple of runs, and since it’s only 6-7 days out, it might be time to take it a little more seriously.

[SFLcane]

GFS has come around to the Euro... Gyre gets caught on Central America.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has come around to the Euro... Gyre gets caught on Central America.

Really? One run and it’s come back around to the Euro?

[SFLcane]

GFS has come around to the Euro... Gyre gets caught on Central America.

Really? One run and it’s come back around to the Euro?

Pulls a a strengthening storm NE towards FL. BUT That's beyond the range of even considering it lol.

[aspen]

Long range 12z GFS goes nuts and wants a Cat 2 hurricane in the Gulf by mid-June.

It is only late May, and we’ve had two TCs, and the GFS is already going berserk. Wonder what the next few months will bring...

[jasons2k]

Worth reading from the NWS-HGX's overnight AFD:

Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond
240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the
GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE.
PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of
year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the
western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended
range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it
happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about
the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep
breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just
the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more.
Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is
almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being
prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as
a matter of course.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has come around to the Euro... Gyre gets caught on Central America.

Really? One run and it’s come back around to the Euro?

Pulls a a strengthening storm NE towards FL. BUT That's beyond the range of even considering it lol.

Gotta love the GFS

[toad strangler]

Really? One run and it’s come back around to the Euro?

Pulls a a strengthening storm NE towards FL. BUT That's beyond the range of even considering it lol.

Gotta love the GFS

When I saw yesterday the entire gyre break off like a runaway Ferris wheel into the Texas coast I knew it was up to it's old tricks

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles day 10:

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM day 10 barely moving:

[AutoPenalti]

The GFS ensembles day 10:

https://i.postimg.cc/DZxGchWj/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-41.png

Some stronger members this run, still extremely early.

[Shell Mound]

The 00Z ECMWF now officially shows long-range development over/near the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico, in relation to the cross-over gyration.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro; +120hr


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